The Faulkner Focus - Tuesday, May 27
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On 'This Week,' The New Yorker's Evan Osnos and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie discuss President Trump's recent pardons and the Trump family's business ventures.
CNBC
27 minutes ago
- CNBC
Here are the 2 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead
President Donald Trump 's tariff saga continues to add new twists and turns. In the week ahead, Wall Street should be braced for more of the same. These days, tariffs are just a fact of life for investors. And they defined the market again last week. Another fact that is increasingly harder to ignore: The market is showing the capacity to move on things other than just trade headlines. That was on display last week with Nvidia 's earnings providing a lift to the artificial intelligence cohort. Sure, when push comes to shove, the economic impact of Trump's tariffs will likely be the biggest driver of corporate earnings going forward and the market's trajectory. But trade headlines cannot be the only thing that consumes us, especially when they can change on a dime and we're looking to invest for the long-term. With that in mind, there's quite a bit on the economic calendar in the coming days, including a look at U.S. construction spending and a checkup on the manufacturing and services sector from the Institute for Supply Management. But the most important batch of data concerns the U.S. labor market, at a time when investors are closely watching out for any cracks in the economy during Trump's trade war. 1. The parade of jobs data begins Tuesday morning with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, often called the JOLTS report for short. It all leads up to Friday. The purpose of JOLTS, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is to measure the amount of slack in the labor market, which, for investors, can shed light on the health of the economy and potential wage inflation. When there are a lot more job openings than available workers, that means workers generally have a better ability to demand higher wages. This week's report is for April. It's now June, so it's more backward-looking than the rest of the week's numbers. We get payroll processing firm ADP's monthly look at private job creation on Wednesday. Typically looked at for clues about what the official government jobs report will say a few days later, the ADP report for May is expected to show 112,000 jobs were added in the month, according to Dow Jones. Thursday brings the usual weekly jobless claims report. After last week's report showed continuing claims were at their highest levels since November 2021, the market will be particularly keyed into this number. In general, economists and investors alike value this report for its weekly nature, believing that it can snuff out underlying softness in the labor market before monthly reports can, given the shorter lag time. To be sure, it's more important to watch the trend line here rather than reaching sweeping conclusions from only a single week. These three reports are building up to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which economists expect to show the U.S. added 125,000 jobs in May, according to Dow Jones. That would be down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate in May, meanwhile, is expected to stay steady at 4.2%. The biggest question that investors will be trying to answer from the data: What does this mean for the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year? The central bank's dual mandate is to foster price stability and maximum employment, but the uncertain effects of tariffs have stoked inflation concerns at the same time, they could also soften the labor market. When Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insists the Fed will remain data dependent, this is one of the key reports they're looking at. 2. Within our portfolio, the main events are the earnings reports from CrowdStrike and Broadcom on Tuesday and Thursday nights, respectively. Beyond the headline revenue and earnings, the key metrics to watch in CrowdStrike's fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings report are annual recurring revenue, or ARR, and operating margins. Last quarter, the cybersecurity provider reported ARR growth of 23% to $4.24 billion. Consensus for the upcoming quarter is $4.42 billion, which would imply a year-over-year increase of 21%, according to FactSet. As for operating margins, it was the company's soft full-year guidance on this metric, among others, in early March that contributed to a nearly 21% sell-off in the stock in just four sessions. There was also some general noise in its last earnings report tied to the July 2024 global IT outage caused by a faulty CrowdStrike software update. Considering the underlying business momentum was still intact, we bought into that earnings sell-off twice — first on March 5 then again on March 10 — and the stock is up nearly 50% since that last buy. We're bracing for more volatility around this earnings report, but are keeping a long-term view given the importance of cybersecurity spending in the digital age. The LSEG consensus estimate, as of Friday, is for revenue of $1.104 billion and EPS of 65 cents. Broadcom's fiscal 2025 second-quarter earnings report on Thursday night will largely be about the growth of its custom AI chip business, which a quarter ago grew 77% year over year to $4.1 billion. For Broadcom's second quarter, the market is looking for 7% sequential growth to $4.4 billion, according to Oppenheimer. We'll also be listening for CEO Hock Tan's comments on Broadcom's custom chip customers — are there any new companies that it is engaged with? Last time, we heard there were two more potential clients. And for its existing customers, which are believed to include Club name Meta Platforms and ex-portfolio stock Alphabet , does Tan have any color to share about their future spending plans? Elsewhere, we'll be looking for additional progress on its VMWare acquisition, which is part of Broadcom's sizable software business that helps counter the cyclicality inherent to its hardware chip business. That cyclicality has been a big drag on its legacy chip business for an extended period of time, though it's gotten a little better lately. Any additional progress in this side of the chip business would be a cherry on top. The LSEG's consensus for Broadcom is for revenue of $14.99 billion and EPS of $1.56. Broadcom was our best-performing stock last week. We booked some profits in our position on Tuesday during the market's big post-holiday rally. Week ahead Monday, June 2 Census Bureau's Monthly Construction Spending Report at 10 a.m. ET ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Campbell Soup (CPB), Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) After the close: No reports of note Tuesday, June 3 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. ET Census Bureau's New Orders for Manufactured Goods Report at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Dollar General (DG), NIO Inc. (NIO), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI), Ferguson (FERG) After the close: CrowdStrike (CRWD) , Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Wednesday, June 4 ADP Private Payrolls Report at 8:15 a.m. ET ISM Services PMI at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Dollar Tree (DLTR), THOR Industries (THO) After the close: MongoDB (MDB), Five Below (FIVE), PVH Corp. (PVH), ChargePoint (CHPT) Thursday, June 5 Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: Ciena (CIEN), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Lands' End (LE), Brown-Forman (BF), Hello Group (MOMO), Toro Company (TTC), Duluth Holdings (DLTH), Victoria's Secret (VSCO) After the close: Broadcom (AVGO), DocuSign (DOCU), lululemon athletica (LULU), Rubrik (RBRK), ServiceTitan (TTAN), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), Mission Produce (AVO), Vail Resorts (MTN), Quanex Building Products (NX) Friday, June 6 Nonfarm Payrolls Report at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: ABM Industries (ABM) (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long NVDA, CRWD, AVGO. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Yahoo
33 minutes ago
- Yahoo
'Until the wheels fall off': Manny Pacquiao and the trouble with growing old in a young man's game
When they say that the last thing to go is a boxer's punch, it gives hope to just about any boxer who can still form a fist. It is therefore not only an adage but cruel, for it suggests that where there is a punch there is always a way. It suggests that punching power will come to a boxer's rescue in their time of need and that it will be there long after their speed, timing, reflexes and resistance have all gone. The problem is, a boxer's ability to punch — hard, soft or otherwise — is often dependent on those very things, and seldom is throwing a punch ever just a case of throwing a punch. To do it right, and generate power, the punch must, A) be thrown correctly, and, B) land. Ideally, when we talk of power being the last thing to go, we should be more honest. We should emphasize that it is star power, not punch power, we are talking about. For it is that, more than anything else, a promoter will aim to exploit when offering an aging boxer a route back, and it is that an aging boxer can usually rely upon, more so than their punch, when in need of either money or attention. Unlike a punch, you see, it always works and never lets them down. It may fade or become tarnished over time, but there is still no longevity like that of a big name. Mike Tyson's, for example, has outlasted even his ability to punch hard. We saw evidence of this last year when Tyson, at the age of 58, attracted 60 million eyeballs to Netflix on the power of his name yet struggled to then throw six power punches during a fight against Jake Paul. You also have Manny Pacquiao's name. His name continues to open doors and secure rankings at the age of 46, with a WBC welterweight title shot against Mario Barrios recently announced for July 19 in Las Vegas. Not only will that be Pacquiao's first fight in four years, but it follows a defeat against Yordenis Ugas and indicates that what is fair and right is immaterial when your name has value. If, like Pacquiao's, it carries significant value, a retired fighter is welcomed back with open arms. They are ranked. They are fast-tracked. They are indulged. They can then delay the drift toward civilian life all retired fighters fear and conclude that the risk of one day forgetting their name is worth the perks of today exploiting it. It is for that reason some fighters need the decision taken out of their hands. They need to be told they cannot box rather than have someone mutter to them that perhaps their time is up. After all, for most boxers, their time is never up. Until the day they die, they will still be able to punch, and that is all that matters. The punch, remember, is the last thing to go. 'Man, it's hard,' said Shane Mosley, a former lightweight, welterweight and super welterweight world champion of retirement. 'If I hadn't hurt my arm, and if I hadn't had surgery and the doctor messed up my arm, I would probably have gone on boxing a lot longer. Since my arm got hurt, I had to retire at 45. I can't be like Bernard [Hopkins, who was still active in his 50s]. That could have been a goal of mine had it not been for the injury.' That Mosley somehow considered retirement at 45 to be premature tells you everything about the mentality of the world champion boxer afraid of irrelevance. For Mosley was no fool, nor was he deluded enough to think he was as good at 45 as he was at 35, much less 25. In fact, he knew, having lost his final fight against David Avanesyan, that he could no longer do most of the things he once took for granted and made look so easy. 'I felt good but I was frustrated the whole damn fight,' Mosley said of his swan song. 'I was almost knocking him out a couple of times but I couldn't knock him out. 'How come I'm hitting him with these shots but I can't knock him out?' I was frustrated. Also, 'How come he's hitting me with these stupid shots and I know he's getting ready to do it, and I know they're coming, but I'm still getting hit? Why?' Those thoughts shouldn't be going through your head when you're fighting. But they were that night. He would turn southpaw and throw a stupid right hook and catch me with it. I knew exactly what he was going to do but couldn't do nothing about it.' Anthony Mundine lands a left on Shane Mosley during the WBA International super welterweight title bout on November 27, 2013 in Sydney, Australia. (Mark Metcalfe via Getty Images) The date of Mosley's realization was May 28, 2016, and the result of the fight was a unanimous decision loss. Five years prior to that, he had boxed Manny Pacquiao and was knocked down in Round 3 and been unable to win a single round or seemingly pull the trigger. It led to one of four defeats Mosley suffered in a three-year period, which included a draw against Sergio Mora and a stoppage loss against Anthony Mundine, two men well below the normal level at which Mosley flourished. Yet still, despite the signs, Mosley carried on. He kept punching, he kept hurting, and he kept taking the opportunities promoters were willing to give him in exchange for his name and his brain. 'I couldn't believe it was going to go the way it did, or for as long as it did, but I have always been obsessed with boxing,' Mosley said. 'I started doing it at 8 and eventually I was like, 'You know what? I'm going to box until the wheels fall off and I can't do it no more.' I just loved boxing. I was in love with it.' Like any toxic relationship, what starts as infatuation can later sour, and the very thing you once loved can in the end be the same thing that destroys you. This is true of the relationship most boxers have with boxing, a sport designed to cause damage, and no amount of distance or clarity prevents them being drawn back together when the time comes. Even though they accept that most reunions will end in tears, the outcome itself is never the point. All a tempted fighter needs to know is whether it can be done or not. They have no interest in whether it can be done well, or indeed whether it should be done. They just want to know if it is possible. That's why even injuries — bad ones — are no longer a deterrent in the eyes of some retired fighters. They can be healed with time, like any trauma, and after a while a retired fighter will either compartmentalize or simply forget the pain of old. 'How come I'm hitting him with these shots but I can't knock him out?' Also, 'How come he's hitting me with these stupid shots and I know he's getting ready to do it, and I know they're coming, but I'm still getting hit? Why?' Shane Mosley Take Sergio Martinez, for instance. He was forced to retire in 2014 due to a series of knee surgeries and was before that seen wearing a knee brace and struggling to stand, let alone move, as Miguel Cotto put him out of his misery in Round 10 of a WBC middleweight title fight. If ever a fighter looked done, it was Martinez that night. Patched up and stitched together, his body had already bailed on him and all he required from Cotto was some help out the door. By the time he then got it, there was not only a look of resignation on the Argentine's face, but on Cotto's a look of sadness, for he knew the fight had ceased to be a fight and was now closer to an intervention. Martinez, that night, was 39 years of age; a good age to call it quits, irrespective of all the injuries. However, because he started boxing late, at 20, the two-weight world champion refused to see age as an accurate gauge. Nor did he see injuries, no matter their severity, as the thing that would ultimately stop him doing what he loved to do. And so, at the age of 45, Martinez inevitably returned to the ring. Tentative at first, he elected to have four routine fights in Spain, the last of which involved England's Macaulay McGowan, a boxer who had lost his two previous fights. 'He's actually my mum's age,' McGowan, 19 years Martinez's junior, said at the time. 'I'm in two minds about it. When I see old fighters come back, I sometimes think, 'Screw them, what the hell are they doing? It's a joke.' Then other times I think, 'Fair play to them. Why the hell not?' 'I used to have a little crappy dongle [USB stick] stuffed into the side of my computer and all weekend I'd be watching different boxers. One day it would [Marco Antonio] Barrera and the next it would be [Erik] Morales or [Arturo] Gatti. Martinez was also one of my favorites to watch, and after watching him, I'd go to the gym on the Monday as a southpaw with my hands down, jumping around, throwing big one-twos.' Former two-weight world champion Sergio Martinez competed well into his 40s. (NurPhoto via Getty Images) Whether it's fans or opponents, there remains a market and a captive audience for the retired, big-name fighter, and therefore an incentive for them to return. 'He's not the man he was by any stretch, Martinez, but I want that Martinez win on my record,' said McGowan, knowing the power of names. 'All these great British fighters have lost to Martinez over the years, but soon you'll see on Boxrec: Macaulay McGowan beat Sergio Martinez.' The fact that this result cannot be found on has less to do with Sergio Martinez's form as a man in his mid-40s and more to do with his ability to pick the right fights and opponents to mitigate the things he was unable to do as a man in his mid-40s. Indeed, after comfortably beating McGowan in 2022, Martinez continued to box at the same sort of level, winning twice more, and few took exception to him operating this way, with the danger effectively minimized. Often it's about knowing your place and your limitations. Just as a 45-year-old man will, or should, feel less inclined to prowl nightclubs on a Saturday night, so too should a 45-year-old pro boxer know better than to think he can still mix it with young world champions on a Saturday night. In other words, grow old gracefully, or at least safely, and nobody appears to have a problem. Why else, for example, would someone like Oliver McCall still be allowed to box in 2025? He is, after all, now 60 years of age, yet he fights for the 78th time on June 3, this Tuesday, in Nashville. His first pro fight was all the way back in 1985 and his recent ones, all of which have taken place in Nashville, have been of a similar ilk: Soft touches to protect McCall. In a sense, the career of McCall has started to mirror the aging process. He is as vulnerable at the end as he was at the beginning and is now being treated with due care. He is going out the way he came in. Przemyslaw Saleta lands a punch against Oliver McCall on August 13, 2005 in Chicago, Illinois. Twenty years later, McCall is still fighting. (Jonathan Daniel via Getty Images) At the age of 47, Italy's Emiliano Marsili was still winning fights, still competing for European titles, and still, rather miraculously, unbeaten as a pro. His record, at 47, was 42-0-1, and he had managed to avoid defeat for a total of 20 years. He had done so not because he was the world's best lightweight, but instead because he was the smartest. He knew when to fight, who to fight, and how to fight as a man in his 40s. That he never boxed for a world title was a regret of Marsili's, yet it could also be argued that it contributed to him staying unbeaten for so long. 'I turned professional quite late at 27, and at the time my goal was to become Italian champion and nothing more,' he explained. 'The difference between me and other boxers is that I spent a long time training and sparring on the same team as Sandro Casamonica, Gianluca Branco and Stefano Zoff when they were fighting for either European titles or world titles. I would do lots of sparring with them and learn a lot. 'I also live very well. If you don't, you will not be fighting for the European title at 47. Most days I go to bed at nine o'clock and then wake up early. Thanks to my family, I have been able to keep straight and lead this kind of life.' Marsili's first and only loss came against Gavin Gwynne, a fighter from Wales, in December 2023. The enduring image from that night is one of Marsili sitting on his stool between rounds eight and nine, unable to continue on account of a shoulder injury. He was, through eight rounds, winning the fight on two of the three scorecards, yet was eventually defeated by his own body. Not his brain. Not his technique. Just his body. 'Mentally I am better now [at 47],' Marsili said. 'I am more experienced and calmer; I take time to make decisions and I am clever. But physically you lose the resistance you had before when you were young.' Emiliano Marsili, 47, reacts to defeat after suffering an injury against Gavin Gwynne on December 01, 2023 in London, England. (James Chance via Getty Images) The same year that Emiliano Marsili's body quit on him, Scotland's Willie Limond experienced something similar when he was pulled out after eight rounds in the company of former three-weight world champion Ricky Burns. It was the second fight of Limond's comeback and only then, at 45, did he acknowledge that there was a limit to what his body could do and achieve. In his first fight back, a scheduled six-rounder against CJ Wood, there were no such revelations. In fact, when stopping Wood inside three rounds, Limond felt like a man reborn. He had by that point forgotten the pain of training for the fight. 'I was out running the other day and was three miles into a seven-mile run when I thought to myself, 'What the f**k am I doing this for?'' he said back then. 'I called my manager and said, 'I think I'm going to have to call this off.' It was just one of those days.' He had even forgotten the reason for doing the fight in the first place. He had forgotten how, rather than trigger a comeback, that six-rounder against Wood in 2023 was supposed to just offer Willie the chance to box on the same bill as his son, Jake. He had forgotten the initial promise: One more and that's it. 'It's more than likely this will be the last one,' Limond said beforehand. 'I last fought three years ago and haven't done a lot of training since. 'If something good gets offered to me after this fight, that could change my mind. But, right now, this is my last fight.' Then he won that 'last fight' and was reminded how it felt to win. After three years without it, now it was back. Now he understood the difference between watching his boys win fights — one as a pro, the other as an amateur — and experiencing the same feeling for himself. Now he understood the real reason why he had wanted to return. 'I'll struggle,' he said of retirement, 'because I've always been about it. I've got a job with Boxing Scotland [the national organization for boxing in Scotland] and train four pros, including my boy, but participating and watching are two different things. Willie Limond (R) and son Jake Limond (L) during a press conference ahead of the Willie Limond vs. Joe Laws fight at the Emirates Arena, on February 1, 2024, in Glasgow, Scotland. (Ross MacDonald - SNS Group via Getty Images) 'I know when it's over I'll be sad. But I also know how old I am and know it doesn't get any better. Anything I haven't achieved in boxing is not going to be achieved now in my 40s. I have to be realistic about that.' Yet it was never a specific achievement Limond still chased in his 40s. It was something else; something he couldn't find or feel elsewhere. He got it against Wood, he got it against Burns, and he was in pursuit of it again in a third comeback fight against Joe Laws — scheduled for May 3, 2024 — when he suffered a seizure in his car driving home from the gym on April 6. He was found unresponsive inside his vehicle that Saturday morning and was immediately taken to Monklands Hospital in Airdrie, Scotland, where he died nine days later. He was just 45 years of age. 'I know a lot of people have said it's because of brain damage from the boxing, but it hasn't got anything to do with it,' said Jake Limond, Willie's son. 'If I was looking at a 45-year-old guy who had 50 fights, and a lot of them had been wars, I would probably think it was the boxing, too. But that's why we were all shocked. It wasn't the boxing that done this. It was literally just a pure random occurrence. If he stopped boxing 10 years ago, or if he had never taken the Joe Laws fight [in May], it wouldn't have mattered. The same thing would have happened.' In Scotland the Limond name lives on, proof once more that a boxer's name is the last thing to go. It lives on in this instance through Jake and Drew, Jake's brother, who turned pro just four months after their father tragically passed away. For two years both Limond boys had watched their father try to claw back time as an old man in a young man's game and saw him defy the odds and perform, in training, like a much younger man. They were also with him on the day that he died, one of them 20, the other 18. It was then that Willie Limond, their hero, was again considered young — too young to die — and they, his boys, suddenly felt old.
