Why Trump's a term-long problem for the Coalition
On the other hand, Labor merely had to strike a pose of calm defiance in the face of Trump's assault on Australia's interests. Anthony Albanese's government appeared to be stable, sane and safe. It reaped a major dividend at the exact moment that voters sought security.
Loading
Yet this is not the end of the era of Australia v Trump. To rework the Bunnings slogan, higher tariffs are just the beginning.
Trump's administration already plans to assail important Australian interests. Starting with the cherished Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. America's big pharma firms complain that it's a restraint on their ability to charge Australians full freight for their drugs. Which is the whole point.
And Trump plans to fight Australia on behalf of Elon Musk's X and the other big US 'social' media and tech corporations. Wherever Australia tries to exert any sovereignty over local internet content – to protect kids, for instance – Trump, Musk & Co. will demand that American profits prevail.
Then there are Australia's biosecurity laws. The laws quarantine Australia's beef, pork, apple and pear sectors from imported disease, but their US competitors demand entry, claiming the biosecurity laws are trade protectionism by another name. Trump's America will try to break all of this and more.
A problem for the Albanese government to manage diplomatically? Yes. But Trump's hostility is also a gift that will keep giving for Albanese politically. All he need do is maintain his calm defiance in the face of Trump's bellicosity and bluster. And Albanese will be a local hero.
And what will the Coalition be doing? The Liberal Party will try to distance itself from Trump. Dutton is gone now, but it is vulnerable nonetheless. Why? Because of a little detail – the Gina Rinehart faction, the local franchise of Trump's MAGA, and its love of fossil fuels, nuclear reactors and climate denialism.
The Rinehart faction is mostly concentrated in the Nationals. But Jacinta Nampijinpa Price is one of the staunchest Rinehart reactionaries. She has moved from the Nationals party room to sit with the Liberals.
How is this a problem for the Liberals? Because the Liberals, if they hope to continue as the alternative party of government, need to dump the climate wars. But the Nationals and Price don't want to dump the climate wars. They want to escalate the conflict.
At her first press conference after her election as the new Liberal leader, Sussan Ley was asked: 'Moderates have been damning about a lack of climate ambition. Can you really afford another climate war to start off your tenure?'
Ley answered: 'There isn't going to be a climate war [within the Coalition]. There is going to be sound, sensible consultation.' She's been careful to say that all policy is up for review.
Specifically, she's been non-committal on the two frontline Coalition climate policies – the plan to build seven taxpayer-funded nuclear reactors, and the commitment to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But the Gina Rinehart faction is very committed, regardless of what Ley thinks. Committed to forging ahead with the nuclear reactors. And committed to dumping the net zero commitment.
The climate war inside the Coalition is already afoot. It was the Coalition under Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce that started the climate wars as a way to wreck Labor. And, for a while, it worked. But now the climate war is a civil war within the Coalition. So the victim of the war will be the Coalition.
Barnaby Joyce was the Nationals' leader who struck the Coalition deal with Scott Morrison to support net zero. But on Friday, Joyce, recovering from cancer surgery, tells me: 'It's obvious in the sobriety of the post-election analysis, it's incontestable in my view – we can't go forward with net zero. There is no love out there for net zero.'
Loading
He cites his electorate of New England. While there was an overall swing towards him of 2 per cent, he enjoyed a swing in his favour of 15 per cent in part of the electorate, an area of the town of Muswellbrook that previously had been in a Labor-held seat but recently was included in his electorate as a result of redistribution.
'In the past, people didn't know what net zero was, but they went along with it because it sounded harmless. But now they realise it does mean something – and it hurts. We have to have a reality check,' Joyce says.
Other Nationals – including Senator Matt Canavan and MP for the seat of Flynn in Queensland Colin Boyce – want to dump net zero. These Nats also hope to retain the nuclear energy policy they took to the election.
The Nats leader, David Littleproud, publicly has been evasive on these policies as he entered coalition negotiations for the new parliament with Ley.
The Nationals' leader in the Senate, Bridget McKenzie, hasn't been evasive at all. She told my colleague Paul Sakkal this week that it would be 'against the national interest' to drop nuclear power 'if we are serious about staying an industrial economy and reducing emissions'.
She implied that it could be a dealbreaker for the Coalition: 'Obviously, our country is best served by a strong Nationals-and-Liberals Coalition government, but the establishment of a coalition between the Liberal and National parties is never a foregone conclusion.' And the net zero policy was up for review because regional Australia was 'absolutely up in arms about [Labor] carpeting their farmland, their communities with transmission lines and solar panels and wind farms'.
Yet the Liberals know that if they want to have any chance of forming government again, they need to appeal to the cities and to voters under the age of 60. Without a credible climate policy, they can't do either.
The Coalition won't break entirely because the Liberals and Nationals are merged into one – the Liberal National Party – in their stronghold state of Queensland. Besides, the Nats want to be in a coalition so they keep their positions as shadow ministers, and the salary allowances that go with them. But it'll look more like a sullen cohabitation than a coalition.
And this civil war is not a clear-cut Nats v Libs conflict. There are Liberals, notably Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, who agree with the idea of dumping net zero and keeping the nuclear policy. This roiling internal argument will probably dog the Coalition all the way to the next election.
And every time it surfaces, it will remind the electorate that the Coalition simply isn't credible on energy and climate policy. And that it shares its climate-denying, fossil-fuel-loving recidivism with Gina Rinehart and Donald Trump.
The state of the Coalition today is reminiscent of philosopher Antonio Gramsci's famous line: 'The old is dying and the new cannot be born.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Sky News AU
an hour ago
- Sky News AU
Trade talks to start between US and China next week
US President Donald Trump has confirmed trade talks between the US and China will commence next week in London. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have spoken on the phone in the last 24 hours. Allegedly, the US government has asked the UK government to facilitate these talks.
Herald Sun
an hour ago
- Herald Sun
‘We should not take a backwards step': Littleproud on Australian biosecurity laws
The National Party says Australia's biosecurity should not be used as a bargaining tool for the removal of US tariffs. The Albanese Government is reportedly considering amending rules, making it easier for the US to export beef to Australia, as long as it can be done safely. Last year, Australia sent almost 400,000 tonnes of beef to America, worth more than $4 billion. Nationals Leader David Littleproud says "we should not take a backwards step and concede biosecurity protocols that are protecting the agricultural industry".
Sky News AU
2 hours ago
- Sky News AU
‘Whitlam-esque': Zoe McKenzie blasts Labor's divisive tax hike on super accounts, slams Tasmanian opposition for triggering early election
Victorian Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie has lambasted Labor for continuing to advance its plan to hike taxes on superannuation accounts and impose levies on unrealised gains whilst hammering the Tasmanian opposition for sending punters to a winter election. Labor's plan to raise taxes on superannuation accounts over $3 million to 30 per cent and to target unrealised capital gains has sent shockwaves throughout the political and business arena, with financial doyens accusing the government of discarding decades of precedent. The Coalition was previously in talks with the Albanese government to revise certain elements of the legislation, chiefly the concept of taxing unrealised gains, however shadow Treasurer Ted O'Brien officially confirmed on Thursday the LNP would oppose the bill. Yet, former Reserve Bank board members Donald McGauchie and Roger Corbett, in addition to a litany of major Liberal Party donors, have pressed the Coalition to remain at the negotiating table and to secure what it deems crucial exemptions for illiquid assets including farms and small businesses. Ms McKenzie, an outspoken moderate who holds one of the Liberal's last outer-suburban seats, railed against the policy, but did not address if the Coalition would resume talks with Labor to modify the legislation. 'I think this is a terrible piece of policy and a terrible precedent for the future, Labor is effectively saying that they will tax money in your pocket, and you do not yet have this money,' she told Sky News on Saturday. The Member for Flinders echoed criticism from industry magnates in relation to the controversial concept of taxing unrealised gains, stating, 'you may have it in the future, you may not have it in the future, but you will be taxed on it'. 'You may incur a loss in the figure, and you won't get that tax back and that's the principle that we must fight here, because once it's started, it could go anywhere,' indicating that the tax could be extended to a range of other assets including real estate and stocks. 'This is a devilish tax and should be fought by the Coalition parties most stridently, this government is very good at speaking liberal-light in terms of their economic narrative, but it is utterly Whitlam-esque in terms of its impact on the Australian economy'. While the Coalition has vowed to fight the legislation, the bill is expected to pass both houses of parliament unopposed, with the Greens joining with Labor in the Senate despite lobbying for the policy to be levied on those with super accounts over $2 million. 'The point is they're going after money no one yet has, these are paper profits, these are family businesses, these are farms held in super funds that people may well have to liquidate just to pass a putative profit that may not exist when finally realised in years to come," Ms McKenzie said. 'They will need the Greens support in the Senate and as you know, the Greens are pushing to lower that threshold from three million to two million. So, it gives the Australian people a very clear indication of what might happen when Labor and the Greens run the show for the next three years'. The shadow assistant minister then turned her attention to the ongoing political chaos in Tasmania. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in parliament on Thursday, with the speaker casting the deciding vote, resulting in the state heading to it's second election in as little as 14 months. Ms McKenzie savaged Tasmanian Labor leader Dean Winter for sending the state to a snap winter poll and argued the opposition parties had collectively torpedoed a popularly elected government. 'I think the Tasmanian people would be very disappointed with what's happened this week, basically holding an elected government hostage, so it looks like they will be going back to a mid-winter election. We've all done them and they're horrendous," she said. 'I'm sure the people of Tasmania will not be grateful for being dragged back to the polls so soon after a federal election and indeed just 14 months after a state election." Tasmanians will have to wait until next Tuesday to find out when they will return to the polls, with the parliament scrambling to draft emergency legislation to fund government services of which are due to be tabled on the same day. Independent MPs including Craig Garland have called on the beleaguered Premier to resign, with Mr Rockliff guaranteeing he would not sell off state-owned assets to pay down debt if he won the election, of which served as a key factor in sparking the political row.
