Senior Labour MSs face three-way selection fight
Welsh Labour risks losing at least one more big hitter at next year's Senedd election because of a three-way fight for selection in a south Wales constituency.
Arrangements for the new Afan Ogwr Rhondda constituency mean three significant figures are being pitched against each other, including the deputy first minister and the woman that won Rhonnda for Labour in 2021.
Huw Irranca-Davies and Buffy Williams will also face the deputy presiding officer David Rees in the party ballot to decide who will get the best spots on the area's Labour list.
Welsh Labour said it would not comment on the selection battle.
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Labour is already facing a major shake-up after the next Senedd election, with more than a third of current Labour MSs having made the decision not to stand for re-election next year.
Former first ministers Mark Drakeford and Vaughan Gething are among those standing down.
Parties are currently in the process of drawing up lists for each of the 16 new constituencies for the next Senedd election.
They can nominate up to eight candidates per constituency, with parties to be rewarded with seats according to the percentage of the vote they win.
While Labour would expect to win two of the six seats available in Afan Ogwr Rhondda, it might struggle to win a third.
Winning three of the six seats in any given constituency would roughly require around 36% of the vote.
Local party members will now vote again to decide who will take the first, second and third place on the list in the constituency, with a result is expected in the coming weeks.
There are already indications from some within the party of a degree of anger were Williams, one of the party's highest profile women politicians – to miss out.
There would be "fury", said one source.
Williams claimed one of the biggest scalps of the 2021 Senedd election, winning Rhondda back from the former Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood with a 19% vote swing.
The previous year she had been awarded the British Empire Medal for services to communities in Rhondda.
While Welsh Labour said it was committed to a "diverse slate of candidates" in its selection across Wales's 16 new Senedd constituencies, the Welsh Labour government abandoned plans last September to force parties to ensure at least 50% of candidates were women.
There were concerns about their lawfulness and whether the Senedd had the power to make the change.
Ogmore MS Irranca-Davies has emerged as an important figure in the current government set up, taking on not only the duties of deputy first minister under the leadership of Eluned Morgan, but also the rural affairs brief in which he has sought to placate protesting farmers.
He said last November that he had "listened" after making changes to controversial tree-cover requirements to qualify for subsidies.
A former MP, he has served as a minister at Westminster.
Rees has been MS for Aberavon since 2011 and deputy presiding officer for the past four years.
His current constituency contains the Port Talbot steelworks.
Under normal circumstances Labour would have realistic hopes of winning three seats in the constituency, but as another source put it: "These are not normal circumstances."
Senior figures in Welsh Labour are very concerned about losing voters to Plaid Cymru, while some of the recent announcements from Reform leader Nigel Farage suggested they were now also turning their attention to wooing traditional Labour supporters.
A poll last month suggested that Labour had fallen to third behind Plaid Cymru and Reform.
Previous polls had suggested the three parties were neck and neck.
At the next election there will be 16 new constituencies made of up of mergers of existing seats and a system of proportional representation.
Afan Ogwr Rhondda takes in the former Aberavon, Ogmore and Rhonnda constituency party areas.
Each of the three MSs are on the party ballot because they were nominated by their respective areas: Rees in Aberavon, Irranca-Davies in Ogmore and Williams in Rhondda.
A Labour party spokesperson said: "Welsh Labour has committed to putting forward a diverse slate of candidates, including women, people from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic communities, those identifying as LGBTQ+, and Welsh speakers amongst other underrepresented communities."
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