Indus River indeed an ‘ever-flowing' river

Business Recorder

2 days ago

To divert or stop the waters of the 'Sarnash', the name of the Indus in Hindu mythology means the 'ever flowing' will not be easy. The Hindu gods were more knowledgeable than the current Prime Minister of India, they were certainly more benign. What they knew and perhaps the Government of India does not is that rivers flow according to the topography of the land, the principles of geography and not as per the whims of the rulers of the time. They are 'ever flowing.' Their water flows not just on the surface of the land but subterraneously as well. In many districts of the Punjab and Sindh through which the Sarnash and its tributaries flow most of the irrigation needs of the farmers are met from wells and not through canals and the water channels.
As per Dr Daanish Mustafa, a professor of Geography at King's College, 80% of the water flowing into Tarbela dam on the Indus is from within the territory under Pakistani control. I have been to the Indus at Raana Dheri 10 km downstream of Tarbela when the spillways were totally closed, and the water from the generators was fed to the channels joining the river at Kalabagh. To me the river felt huge and was flowing with considerable water. It appears that there is enough seepage and the subterranean flows fill up the river again below the spillways. Any damming above the ground will not be able to stop the flow of subterranean flows. So to talk of stopping the waters of the Indus is impossible.
As regards the waters of the Jhelum, the river flows through the center of Srinagar through the Uri gorge and any dam there will submerge the whole valley. Anyways, the Kashmiris do take some water from it to irrigate adjoining crops or domestic usage. The Kashmir valley is already aflush with enough rainfall not to require any additional irrigation. To divert the water across the Kashmiri valleys to East Punjab is an impossible task.
We have had our own experience with the Neelum hydroelectric project. The tunnels made to cross just one ridge for the waters of the Neelam river has been a very difficult job taking decades and costing billions. Within two years the tunnels were damaged and then blocked by the debris that comes down with the water. The Indians will have no easier time with the much bigger flows of the Chenab and the Jhelum. They have to cross multiple ridges and higher ground to take the water to Haryana or Rajasthan.
The river probably at some risk is possibly the Chenab. I have travelled from Chandigarh to Kullu Manali, high valleys close to Laddakh, by road. The road runs along the riverbed of the Chenab. On three different occasions I saw the water disappears to re-appear a few kilometers upstream. The water is diverted to generate hydro power and then goes back to the natural river bed. Where the river Chenab flows out of the Himalayas onto the plains the land is already aflush with the waters of the Ravi and Sutlej irrigation systems. The upper valleys off Kullu already have enough rainfall as do most of our mountain valleys.
The Indians have already exploited the rights given to them by the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) to the full. The rivers Ravi and Sutlej have had all their water siphoned off, yet they flow across the border with substantial water flows. All these dams, canals, hydro power stations have been made over 50 years of vast efforts and with heavy expenditures. Similar resources and time will be required to divert the waters of the Chenab. The dams made shall be clearly visible to all, thanks to satellite surveillance. These days the Google maps app can tell you if there is a traffic jam around the corner. Dams and canals are much more visible.
While the Indians will have no easy time to divert waters flowing into Pakistan, we can very easily discomfort them easily. If you examine the chapter 4 of the IWT it states as under:
'Pakistan shall maintain in good order its portion of the drainages mentioned below with capacities as on the effective date:
Hudiara drain,
Kasur Nulla,
Salimshah drain,
Fazilka drain,
So if the IWT is cancelled then we could prevent these nullahs from flowing into Pakistan from India. The Indians should keep their drains and sewage to themselves and do what they like with it. Thousands of acres can be flooded with sewage water and the crops destroyed and villages and towns be made unlivable. We have not even bothered to check the quantum of flows in these drains. I am sure the volumes going through have swelled since the IWT was signed in the 1960s. The Indians should have paid for them and for the treatment of their waste water.
Subsoil water flows have still not been examined carefully. If the river flow is reduced then how does it affect the subterranean flows? The river Ravi when it passes through Lahore is now a shadow of its former self because of the water diverted by India. The city of Lahore has grown massively since the 1960s. Not only has the population multiplied but the gardens, parks and roads have been kept lush and green. The sub soil water level has fallen but not drastically. To get potable clean water you may have to go below 400 feet, but water is available at 150 feet. This is true not only in the city but also throughout the districts of Lahore and Kasur.
It is clear that we need to study these geographic phenomena much more for our own future planning as well as to counter the threats from India with or without the IWT. It is also clear that Modi did not consult his gods before threatening us. For once the Indians have taken a step without much thought for its consequences. If they are to stop our waters then what's stopping China diverting the mighty Brahmaputra?
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025