The week the 2026 midterms began

Politico

10-05-2025

Presented by The American Council of Life Insurers
With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
Good Saturday morning. It's Adam Wren. Get in touch.
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that 'India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE' ending the most significant conflagration between the nuclear neighbors in decades. 'Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!'
VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio 'engaged with senior Indian and Pakistani officials, including Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, and National Security Advisors Ajit Doval and Asim Malik,' Rubio said in a statement.
India's foreign minister contradicted Rubio, according to the NYT, saying the two nations negotiated the ceasefire apart from the U.S.
DRIVING THE DAY
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) announced yesterday evening that she was ruling out a Senate bid, saying she 'won't fight for a team that refuses to win, that protects its weakest players, and that undermines the very people it's supposed to serve.' A few days earlier, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp said he would do the same.
Greene, who had previously said she was weighing a Senate and gubernatorial bid in addition to keeping her House seat, did not take a bid for governor off the table.
Almost immediately, national and Georgia Democrats began licking their chops about an MTG gubernatorial campaign. Even before the announcement, Democrats saw the swing state as their best pickup option.
Their thinking: An MTG campaign throws a wrench in a primary between sitting AG Chris Carr and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who is expected to get in any week. Kemp is term-limited — his brand of GOP politics is literally off the ballot.
Democratic contenders include former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and state Sen. Jason Esteves, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
'Marjorie Taylor Greene just ruined the RGA's weekend,' Kevin Donohoe, a spokesperson with DGA, told Playbook. 'Georgia Republicans were already staring down a nasty yearlong primary that would leave whoever emerged as the nominee badly damaged and out of touch with voters. Now with Marjorie Taylor Greene hovering above it all, things have gone from bad to worse.'
The Republican Governors Association did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At the same time this week, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) announced his campaign team ahead of what threatens to be a brutal primary with AG Ken Paxton.
Elsewhere, Future Forward, the super PAC that raised $900 million for Kamala Harris last year, resurfaced with a conference and an agenda that read, 'The best way to stop Donald Trump at the federal level is to win control of the House of Representatives in 2026.'
Taken together, the moves were some of the first dominoes to fall ahead of the 2026 midterms — and come the week the starting gun for those races sounded.
THE LANDSCAPE: Republicans' prospects next November are top of mind for Trump, who posted on Truth Social a number of endorsements yesterday. That's not to mention his contention that a 'TINY' tax hike for the 'rich' could cost his party, posting, 'Republicans should probably not do it, but I'm OK if they do!!!'
CAMPAIGNER-IN-CHIEF: All of that is the mood music playing beneath our colleague Rachael Bade's newsy column this morning looking at how Trump's 'midterm obsession is also hovering over Capitol Hill as GOP lawmakers try to write his sprawling domestic policy agenda into law.'
'On issue after issue, Trump appears to sympathize with swing-district moderates — the 'majority makers' whose races will decide the majority,' Rachael writes. 'Trump and his aides have pushed back on steep cuts to Medicaid in part because the politics stink. They've given a wide berth to blue-state Republicans who are pushing to raise the cap on the deduction for state and local taxes — a policy Trump signed in 2017 that helped sink him in suburban districts a year later.'
Part of it, Rachel notes, is Trump's 'love of the game.' But for a president who has weathered all manner of investigations and two impeachments, there's something more realpolitik: He is 'deeply motivated by his desire to avoid suffering through dozens of new investigations and a third potential impeachment,' she writes.
ON OFFENSE: As one Trump adviser put it, Trump is finally playing the long game.
'We think we can have four years,' this person told Rachael, capturing the attitude inside Trump's political shop. 'We reject the defeatist attitude of operating from the perspective that this is our only shot and we only got two years.'
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: DNC Chair Ken Martin named New York state Sen. James Skoufis, his former rival in the chair race, to the DNC's 'People's Cabinet,' with a focus on engaging and energizing young, rural, union and red state voters.
'While the Trump administration stacks his cabinet with billionaire donors and Fox News hosts, Democrats are holding them accountable for their attacks on working families with real champions for the people,' Martin said in a statement. 'Senator Skoufis is a strong, emerging voice on issues that reach important parts of our coalition — from young voters to former Republicans who are sickened by what their party has become — and we look forward to amplifying his leadership as part of our People's Cabinet.'
9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US
1. IMMIGRATION FILES: As the Trump administration continues to search for ways to deny due process rights to immigrants, Trump and top officials are seriously considering suspending habeas corpus, CNN's Kaitlan Collins, Samantha Waldenberg and Tierney Sneed report. That would essentially allow the administration to sidestep the courts in rapidly pursuing deportations, a rare step used only during wartime or invasion — despite U.S. intelligence evidence showing that the presence of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua doesn't constitute an invasion, and judges rejecting that idea, contrary to officials' claims. Suspending habeas corpus, as Stephen Miller floated, would likely require congressional approval and certainly face legal challenges.
Slippery slope: Judges are warning that the Trump administration's efforts to deny immigrants due process 'could easily expand to other groups, including Americans,' POLITICO's Kyle Cheney reports. A growing number of jurists have framed this fight as existential for Americans' fundamental rights, as well as those of immigrants.
The crackdown continues: Trump told DHS last night to add 20,000 more deportation officers, which 'would lead to an enormous expansion of immigration enforcement,' though it's uncertain where the money to more than quadruple that force would come from, NYT's Hamed Aleaziz reports. Nonetheless, the Trump administration is planning to selectively restart refugee admissions only for white South Africans, roughly 60 of whom will be brought to the U.S. on Monday, per WaPo's Teo Armus. It's an extraordinary effort to prioritize people Trump says have suffered anti-white discrimination, though U.N. data show no South Africans met its refugee criteria last year, and the U.S. system remains closed to people fleeing war.
The latest flashpoint: ICE arrested Newark, New Jersey, Mayor Ras Baraka, charging him with trespassing as he protested an immigration detention site, POLITICO's Ry Rivard, Daniel Han and Josh Gerstein report from Newark. Their account from the scene contradicts some Republican claims about Baraka's behavior. He was later released. (Politically, this is a fight that both Trump and Baraka, who's running for governor, might like to have.) Today, DHS' Tricia McLaughlin claimed to CNN's Victor Blackwell that 'we actually have body-camera footage of some of these members of Congress assaulting our ICE enforcement officers, including body-slamming a female ICE officer' — and she said arrests of members might follow.
More from the courts: A federal judge said a Trump executive order aiming to choke off federal funding to sanctuary cities could be legitimate if the money is directly connected to those policies — but would be unconstitutional if it targeted other funds, per Reuters' Nate Raymond.
2. THE DISMANTLING OF GOVERNMENT: A federal judge yesterday blocked sweeping layoffs across much of the government, though it's only a two-week pause, per the AP. She found that the reductions in force likely require seeking the consent of Congress, though the president does have the authority to transform the executive branch. Major departments affected include Agriculture, Energy, Labor, Interior, State, Treasury and the VA.
The cuts continue: The White House fired three Democratic commissioners on the Consumer Product Safety Commission, essentially paralyzing the independent consumer watchdog agency as Trump seeks to take it apart, Consumer Reports' Lauren Kirchner scooped. Advocates said the move was illegal and jeopardized the bipartisan agency's lifesaving work. Meanwhile, new acting FEMA leader David Richardson issued a brash declaration to staff that he would temporarily take over every decision at the agency, including on spending, and 'run right over' anyone who opposed him, Reuters' Leah Douglas and Nathan Layne scooped. That sparked fears that disaster aid could be dramatically slowed.
In the DOGE house: NYT's David Fahrenthold and Jeremy Singer-Vine find that $220 million of the money that the Department of Government Efficiency claims to have saved has actually been resurrected — 'zombie contracts.' Federal spending and deficits are actually up this year overall, WaPo's Jacob Bogage notes.
3. SHOCKER: 'Trump Promised to End Two Wars Quickly. In Private, He Admits He's Frustrated,' by WSJ's Josh Dawsey and Alex Ward: 'When President Trump spoke to a room of top donors at his Florida club last week, he described ending Russia's war in Ukraine as a growing frustration that keeps him up at night … Russian President Vladimir Putin was particularly tough to negotiate with, and wanted 'the whole thing,' Trump said, referring to Ukraine … The war in Gaza was also notably challenging, Trump told the crowd. … Trump is finding solving the world's problems more difficult than he had thought.'
4. RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: An early draft of the House Ways and Means reconciliation bill text includes some notable efforts to bolster the Child Tax Credit and increase the standard deduction for couples, per the WSJ. Those could both benefit average Americans, running counter to objections that the legislation overall primarily helps the wealthy, and give people quick payouts by early next year. It does not include raising taxes on the highest earners. But some of the most controversial provisions — like the state and local tax deduction, clean energy tax credits, and ending taxes on tips or overtime pay — haven't been ironed out yet.
Clock's ticking: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 'X-date' by which the U.S. must raise the debt ceiling or risk default will likely come in August, urging lawmakers to increase the limit by mid-July, per CNN. That amounts to a clearer deadline for the reconciliation bill.
5. GOP VS. CIVIL SOCIETY: Republicans may also use the reconciliation bill to take aim at institutions disfavored by Trump. One idea would skyrocket taxes on university endowments, which could seriously hurt wealthy schools that have lately been targeted by the president, Bloomberg's Nancy Cook and Erik Wasson report. Another would slap a major investment income tax on private foundations, like Gates and Rockefeller, as Republicans have increasingly criticized some of these large philanthropic organizations, POLITICO's Benjamin Guggenheim reports.
Fighting back: An array of politically diverse major foundations are working together to try to resist any potential effort to strip their tax-exempt status, WSJ's Juliet Chung and Emily Glazer scooped.
6. THE COMING FIGHT IN CONGRESS: 'CBO: Letting Affordable Care Act subsidies expire would lead to millions losing coverage,' by POLITICO's Ben Leonard: 'The new findings by the nonpartisan congressional scorekeeper … determined that making the so-called enhanced premium tax credits permanent would cost more than $350 billion over a decade. The flip side, however, is that [not doing so] would result in close to 4 million fewer people having health insurance.'
7. FOR YOUR RADAR: 'Pentagon considers shifting Greenland to US Northern Command, sparking concerns over Trump's ambitions for the territory,' by CNN's Katie Bo Lillis and Natasha Bertrand: 'Trump administration officials are weighing a change that would shift responsibility for US security interests in Greenland to the military command that oversees America's homeland defense, underscoring the president's focus on the strategically important territory that he has repeatedly said he wants to acquire … On its face, the idea of putting Greenland under NORTHCOM authority makes some logical sense given it is part of the North American continent, though politically and culturally, it is associated with Europe.'
8. PETE HEGSETH'S WAR: The Pentagon issued a new memo ordering a purge of all library books touching on diversity or gender issues, per the AP. Military leaders have less than two weeks to execute this 'broadest and most detailed directive so far.'
9. ANOTHER TOUGH JOHN FETTERMAN STORY: 'An isolated John Fetterman clashes with colleagues and staff as he skips his Senate duties,' by NBC's Allan Smith, Sahil Kapur, Scott Wong and Frank Thorp V: 'In the run-up to the vote to confirm Pete Hegseth as defense secretary, Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., knew her party had a problem … [Fetterman] was open to confirming President Donald Trump's embattled pick … So she reached out to set up a time [to talk]. … But Fetterman refused … [T]hose familiar with Fetterman say he has often neglected the duties of his job since being elected, rarely making appearances for noncampaign events in his home state, regularly missing committee hearings, bill mark-ups and votes.'
The response: 'In a comment for this article, Fetterman did not address missing so many committee hearings but said of votes last year: 'Everything in 2024 was about the election.''
CLICKER — 'The nation's cartoonists on the week in politics,' edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies
GREAT WEEKEND READS:
— 'Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College,' by N.Y. Mag's James Walsh: 'ChatGPT has unraveled the entire academic project.'
— 'Rise of the Crypto Keepers,' by Jacob Silverman in The Nation: 'The promoters of scam currency spent more money than any other group in 2024. They're now realizing a massive return on investment in Donald Trump's White House.'
— 'Lawyers Are Quoting $1 Million in Fees to Get Pardons to Trump,' by Bloomberg's Ava Benny-Morrison and Bill Allison: 'One pardon recipient recalls the president telling him, 'You're cleaner than a baby's bottom.''
— 'Jim Banks: A Trade Warrior After Trump's Own Heart,' by RealClearPolitics' Philip Wegmann:
— 'Inside the life of a 24/7 streamer: 'What more do you want?'' by WaPo's Drew Harwell in Austin: 'A lonely young woman in Texas has streamed every second of her life for three years and counting. Is this life, or a performance of one?'
— 'How the Most Remote Community in America Gets Its Mail,' by The Atlantic's Sarah Yager: 'Transporting letters and packages to the village of Supai requires a feat of logistics, horsemanship, and carefully placed hooves.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at Global Situation Room's 10th-anniversary celebration at the American Psychological Association rooftop: Isabel Casillas Guzman, Brett Bruen, Emma Belcher, Beth Nardi, Cameron Hume, Phil Lewis, Pierre Mejlak, Jane Plitt, Julian Ramirez, Marc Ross, John Simon, Andy Van Pachtenbeke, Kate Ackley, Kimberly Adams, Francesca Chambers and Stephanie Dhue.
TRANSITION — Rob Silvers is now co-chair of the national security practice and a partner at Ropes & Gray. He previously was undersecretary for policy at DHS.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) and John Curtis (R-Utah) … Reps. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) and Pete Stauber (R-Minn.) … Howard Ou … Punchbowl's Andrew Desiderio … Daniel Watson … Jonathan Powell of the Motion Picture Association … Bloomberg's Craig Gordon and Jorja Siemons … N.Y. Mag's Gabe Debenedetti … Stan Greenberg of Greenberg Research … POLITICO's Mike Lee, Christine Mui and Ariel Wittenberg … Finch Fulton … American Forest and Paper Association's Fara Sonderling … Doug Farrar … CNN's Jeremy Herb … Chris Tuttle … WaPo's Vineet Khosla … Gary Goldberg of Dentons … Clarence Tong … Andrew Card … Mercatus Center's Veronique de Rugy … Brad Bannon … Maggie Karchmer of Wiley Rein … Rachel Drian … Adam Janofsky … Tim Powderly of Apple … Ian O'Keefe … Grant Cummings … former Sens. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) and Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) … Terry Holt … former Rep. Steve Gunderson (R-Wis.) … Meredith Dodson of the Coalition on Human Needs … Melissa Frankel
THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):
MSNBC 'The Weekend': Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear … Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) … Newark, New Jersey, Mayor Ras Baraka … Mitch Landrieu.
Fox News 'Sunday Morning Futures': National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett … Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) … Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) … Maria Corina Machado … Social Security Administration Commissioner Frank Bisignano.
CNN 'State of the Union': Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick … Chris Sununu and Rahm Emanuel. Panel: Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.), Brad Todd, Xochitl Hinojosa and Kristen Soltis Anderson.
CBS 'Face the Nation': Scott Kirby … New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham … Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) … Cardinal Blase Cupich … British Ambassador Peter Mandelson … Sam Rose.
NBC 'Meet the Press': Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy … Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) … Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). Panel: Matt Gorman, Sahil Kapur, Carol Lee and Neera Tanden.
NewsNation 'The Hill Sunday': Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) … Mitch Landrieu … Tim Carney. Panel: Tamara Keith, Megan McArdle, Margaret Talev and Ian Swanson.
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Corrections: Yesterday's Playbook misspelled Samira Gharaei's and Robert Allbritton's names. It also misstated for whom a book party was being held. It was for Keith McNally.