
‘The Tsunami Is Coming': China's Global Exports Are Just Getting Started
For decades, the world's largest car factory was Volkswagen's complex in Wolfsburg, Germany. But BYD, the Chinese electric carmaker, is building two factories in China, each capable of producing twice as many cars as Wolfsburg.
Recent data from China's central bank shows that state-controlled banks lent an extra $1.9 trillion to industrial borrowers over the past four years. On the fringes of cities all over China, new factories are being built day and night, and existing factories are being upgraded with robots and automation.
China's investments and advances in manufacturing are producing a wave of exports that threatens to cause factory closings and layoffs not just in the United States but also around the globe.
'The tsunami is coming for everyone,' said Katherine Tai, who was the United States Trade Representative for former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
President Trump's steep tariffs announced on Wednesday, which have caused stocks in Asia and elsewhere to plunge, were the most drastic response yet to China's export push. From Brazil and Indonesia to Thailand and the European Union, many countries have already moved more quietly to increase tariffs as well.
Want all of The Times? Subscribe.

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
33 minutes ago
- Yahoo
May CPI preview: Inflation expected to tick higher as tariff uncertainty lingers
May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show prices increased at a slightly faster clip than in April. The report, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, comes as investors closely watch for any signs that President Trump's tariffs are impacting what consumers pay. According to Bloomberg data, headline inflation is expected to have accelerated slightly to 2.4% in May from 2.3% in April, which marked the lowest yearly increase since February 2021. Month-over-month prices are estimated to rise 0.2%, matching April's increase. On a "core" basis, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, CPI is expected to have risen 2.9% over the past year in May, a slight acceleration from April's 2.8%. Monthly core price increases are anticipated to rise 0.3%, ahead of April's 0.2%. The report reflects the time period about a month after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements shook markets and businesses. Since then, many reciprocal tariffs have been paused, but the 10% baseline duties for most countries remain in place. Mexico and Canada continue to face fentanyl-related tariffs, and industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos remain unchanged. Tariffs on China remain significant, with the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods hovering around 30%. "May's CPI report will be an important test of the speed and magnitude to which higher tariff rates are being passed along to the consumer," said the Wells Fargo economics team, led by Sarah House, in a preview note. House expects a modest rise in overall and core inflation from higher goods prices but doesn't foresee a big jump in this report. Still, economists there say the risk of higher prices later this year remains, a view shared by many on Wall Street. Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation "Going forward, the impact of tariffs will likely provide a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation, and we expect monthly core CPI inflation of around 0.35% over the next few months," Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs wrote, noting a "sharp acceleration" in most core goods categories but limited impact on core services inflation, at least in the near term. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas said that although May's core inflation reading could register its strongest monthly gain since Q2 2023, hotter prints are expected in June and July. According to BNP, price increases from tariffs typically appear two to three months after implementation. However, broader uncertainty about the timing and impact of tariff-related price changes has weighed on the outlook. "The Trump administration's 'yo yo' approach to implementing tariffs and attendant uncertainties about their timing, form, and longevity may encourage firms to adopt a policy of strategic patience around increasing prices," Andy Schneider, senior US economist at BNP Paribas, wrote in a note to clients last week. "This could potentially delay tariff-induced inflation, in addition to leading to an ultimately messier and more persistent response." Echoing this uncertainty, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic recently said constant tariff changes are "making it much harder to declare with any conviction that price increases from tariffs will be a one-time event." Markets still expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting next week. Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at
Yahoo
38 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Commentary: How Chinese imports are skirting Trump's tariffs
There's a huge drop underway in Chinese imports entering the US — from China. But Chinese goods are arriving anyway, via other Asian nations such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. That may be good news for shoppers, because it means cheap Chinese goods are still making it to US stores despite the higher costs imposed by President Trump's new import taxes. But shifting trade patterns will surely get Trump's attention, and the tariff-happy president could easily put a stop to it by raising import taxes on what are turning out to be loophole countries. Trump's aggressive tariff regime is meant to make most imported products more expensive to encourage more domestic production. But Trump's uneven approach has created opportunities for a kind of trade arbitrage that was all but inevitable. As things stand now, Trump has imposed new import taxes of 30% on most goods from China but only 10% on imports from most other nations. That 20% differential is a big advantage for the less-tariffed countries. Sure enough, trade data shows that Chinese exporters are almost certainly "transshipping" goods to the US by passing them through neighboring countries. Chinese data shows that exports to the US dropped 35% in May compared with a year earlier. But during the same period, Chinese exports to six other Asian nations jumped 15%, including a 22% increase in exports to Vietnam and Thailand, a 12% jump in exports to Singapore, and an 11% rise in shipments to Indonesia. "[China's] direct exports to the US are down sharply, but its exports to all kinds of places across Asia are up massively," economist Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution posted on social media on June 9. "These are obviously transshipments to the US via third countries."The US Department of Commerce hasn't yet published trade data for May, but data for April shows the mirror image of the Chinese data. Imports from China fell 20% from 2024 levels, while there was a 48% jump in Vietnamese imports, a 32% jump in shipments from Thailand, and a 16% increase in goods from Malaysia. Trade experts have been predicting this shift since Trump began imposing new import taxes in February, because it's the same thing that happened during the trade wars Trump waged during his first presidential term. Vietnam, in particular, was a big beneficiary of Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports in 2018 and 2019. While imports from China fell by 11% from 2017 to 2019, imports from Vietnam boomed by 43%. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Since Trump's first trade war, many Asian producers and their US customers have carefully diversified so they're not overdependent on China. The US now imports less clothing from China, as one example, and more from Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, and India. Transshipment can mean that some products are fully assembled in China and simply make a brief stopover in another country before heading to the US so that their country of origin isn't China. Governments tend to discourage that, however, because those countries gain little from merely serving as a way station for Chinese products headed to the US. Plus, it may attract unwanted attention from Trump. Chinese companies are also increasingly building their own production facilities outside of China. "There are two ways to transship," Jason Judd, executive director of the Global Labor Institute at Cornell University, told Yahoo Finance. "In one, you're just cheating. In the other, you disassemble your product in China and send the inputs and the know-how to a new place." In Cambodia, for example, most of the companies making goods that go to the US have Chinese ownership. Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs — on ice for the moment — are meant, in part, to target countries that are way stations for Chinese products. When Trump announced those nation-by-nation tariffs on April 2, Asian trade partners other than China got hit with some of the highest rates. The new tariff on Chinese imports was 34%. For Cambodia, the new tariff rate was 49%. Vietnam: 46%. Thailand: 36%. Indonesia: 32%. Malaysia: 24%. Those rates weren't based specifically on transshipment of Chinese products but on the size of the trade deficit in goods each country has with the US. The larger the deficit, the higher the tariff. Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances Trump suspended those tariffs on April 9, following a week of mayhem in financial markets. That eventually left the tariff rates at 30% on most imports from China and 10% on most imports from every other country. But Trump said the reciprocal tariffs could go back into effect if nations don't make trade deals with him one by one by a July 9 deadline. By then, a boom in imports from Asian nations other than China will give Trump plenty of justification for more reciprocal tariffs. But he may choose to overlook it. Trump seems to have a much bigger trade beef with China than he does with other nations. His advisers are also telling him that high tariffs across the board could mean shocking price increases on clothing, electronics, appliances, and many other things just as Americans start their back-to-school shopping this summer. After that will come a Christmas season possibly starring Trump as the Grinch. So Trump might end up talking tough on China and looking the other way as the country's products enter the side door. That would make stealthy Chinese imports an unintended innovation triggered by Trump's trade war. Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices.
Yahoo
41 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Europe heaps harsh sanctions on Russia, saying ‘strength is the only language' Moscow understands
The European Union announced a new package of sanctions against Russia on Tuesday, saying that Moscow's daily deadly attacks against Ukraine show that it is not interested in peace – despite recent diplomatic efforts. The new package – the 18th since Russia launched its full-scale unprovoked invasion against its neighbor in 2022 – is designed to further target the Kremlin's ability to make money from its oil and gas production. The proposal includes lowering the price cap on Russian oil exports from $60 to $45 per barrel and introducing a full transaction ban on Russian banks and financial institutions in third countries that help Russia circumvent existing sanctions. The EU said it is also proposing a ban on the use of Russian energy infrastructure, forbidding any EU operator from engaging directly or indirectly in any transactions that involve the Nord Stream pipelines. The new package will need to be approved by the EU's 27 member states. That could be complicated given previous concerns raised by some more pro-Kremlin governments, such as Hungary and Slovakia, about further sanctions targeting Russia. While both those countries have previously threatened to block new rounds of sanctions, so far they have ultimately voted in favor of them. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said the sanctions were necessary 'because strength is the only language that Russia will understand.' 'We want peace for Ukraine. Despite weeks of diplomatic attempts, despite (Ukraine's) President (Volodymyr) Zelensky's offer of an unconditional ceasefire, Russia continues to bring death and destruction to Ukraine. Russia's goal is not peace, it is to impose the rule of might. Therefore, we are ramping up pressure on Russia,' von der Leyen said at a news conference in Brussels. The leaders of Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Poland last month told Russian leader Vladimir Putin to agree to a 30-day ceasefire or face possible 'massive' sanctions. Putin ignored the ultimatum, proposing instead 'direct talks' between Moscow and Kyiv. But two rounds of talks in Istanbul, Turkey, have made it clear Russia is sticking to its maximalist demands that would essentially equate to Ukraine's capitulation. 'Russia's ability to continue the war is equal to its ability to sell their oil and bypass financial barriers,' Zelensky said Tuesday night, calling the European sanctions package 'an important step' and also condemning the lack of similar measures from the United States. 'Russia has been constantly increasing the number of munitions in its strikes. This is a steady trend, and it means that Moscow is not afraid of anyone in the world,' the Ukrainian leader added. 'Putin wants to continue killing and is taking advantage of the fact that he is not getting a strong response. He does not hear Washington. And this speaks volumes to the world, to everyone.' Explaining why the EU has targeted Russia's energy sector, the Commission chief said oil exports still represent one third of Russian government revenues. 'We need to cut this source of revenue,' she said. The oil price cap was introduced by the EU and G7 countries in December 2022. The cap, which applies to Russia's seaborne oil exports, prohibits Western companies from providing shipping, insurance and other services needed to export the fuel unless it is priced below the threshold. By enforcing a price cap, the EU and its allies have tried to diminish a key source of revenue for the Kremlin while still allowing its oil to flow to the global energy market – because cutting Russia's supplies completely could destabilize the market and cause prices to shoot up. Von der Leyen said on Tuesday that the price cap needs lowering because global oil prices had fallen since the cap was first introduced and now trade 'very close' to the $60 level. The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has dropped 18% since the price cap on Russian crude took effect on December 5, 2022. It was trading at almost $68 a barrel late morning Eastern Time (ET) on Tuesday. The bloc also wants to harden sanctions on Russia's banking sector. Shortly after the invasion, the United States, EU, Britain and Canada jointly banned some Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging service – a high-security network connecting thousands of financial institutions around the world. That has made it far more difficult for those banks to send and receive money from abroad. Now, the Commission wants to go a step further and prevent any EU operator, such a a business, from conducting a transaction with a list of sanctioned Russian banks. It also plans to add another 22 of Moscow's banks to that list. Additionally, the bloc wants to extend the transaction ban to financial institutions in third countries that help Russia circumvent existing sanctions. Von der Leyen said the latest package of sanctions will also broaden the current ban on materials and technologies that can be exported to Russia, adding: 'We want to make sure that Russia does not find ways to modernize its weapons with European technologies.' The sanctions will also include new measures against 22 Russian and foreign companies providing direct or indirect support to Russia's military and industrial complex. CNN's Victoria Butenko contributed to this report.