Labor was bracing for a Victorian backlash. It came, but not where everyone thought
Labor had long been bracing for a tough battle in Melbourne's outer suburbs, where a swing the party anticipated never materialised.
But the ALP was caught off guard by an energised Nationals campaign and a shock 10 per cent swing against it in the once safe-as-houses seat of Bendigo.
Labor is set to retain the seat by a thin margin after almost a week of counting, and avoid an embarrassing defeat in an otherwise dominant federal election.
The story of Bendigo, depending on who you ask, is either one of voters turning on their home-town premier, or that of a cashed-up and spirited campaign by a well-connected candidate. Or, as is often the case, a bit of both.
Labor's sitting MP Lisa Chesters has held the seat since 2013 and retained it in 2022 with a very comfortable margin of 12.1 per cent.
But on Friday afternoon, she led with 51 per cent to the Nationals' 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, and a difference of 2226 votes. The current margin means the seat has the largest swing against Labor of any in the country, excluding contests with independents.
Nationals candidate Andrew Lethlean, a well-known local bar owner, is the first National to contest the seat since 2016 and sought to become the first Coalition MP to win Bendigo since 1996.
His campaign capitalised on a possible backlash against Premier Jacinta Allan, who holds the overlapping state seat of Bendigo East, as Allan's popularity has plummeted in successive polls.
Campaign leaflets show Allan wearing a 'Yes' T-shirt from federal Labor's failed Voice referendum. About 60 per cent of people in Bendigo voted 'no' in the referendum. Other signs focused on Chesters, declaring: 'Time is up Lisa and Labor.'
The Nationals campaign in Bendigo, which Labor suggested cost between $1 and $2 million, made Lethlean the most visible person in the regional city and surrounding towns.
The campaign launched in January at Lethlean's venue The Social bar and eating house, where he was joined by Nationals leader David Littleproud and senator Bridget McKenzie.
The bar was full and the vibes were high as hundreds turned up to support Lethlean.
Bendigo business owner Deb McAliece was at the event and said Lethlean's energy made her feel excited about politics for the first time and prompted her to join the National Party.
'The atmosphere was electric,' she said.
McAliece, who describes herself as naturally aligning more with the Liberals and Nationals but not overly political, was among a flood of business owners who backed Lethlean.
She knows Allan personally and thinks she is a lovely person, but she's angry at the impact of state Labor's COVID-19 policies on small businesses.
And while Lethlean is well known to the community and made every effort to meet with business owners, McAliece said Chesters had not.
'I've been in business for 30 years, so I see what can happen when you haven't got anyone in that's putting the work in for small business,' she said.
Lethlean's presence has been unavoidable for Bendigo residents over the past three months: from events to signage, TV ads to branded cars, corflutes and volunteers on the street.
In short: he was everywhere.
Soon after Labor's thumping victory and its strong performance across metropolitan Melbourne became clear last Saturday, Allan suggested the result gave her government a popular mandate to push ahead with the Suburban Rail Loop project.
But Allan rejects suggestions the swing in Bendigo was linked to her unpopularity. Instead, she said the Nationals ran a 'cashed-up' campaign with a 'quasi independent' candidate.
'Anyone who lives here knows what's going on in Bendigo. The estimates locally here were that [they spent] somewhere between $1 million and $2 million on a massively cashed-up campaign – a campaign that presented as nothing to do with the Liberal Party and Peter Dutton,' Allan told ABC Radio on Wednesday.
Allan claims the Nationals left conservative political lobbying group Advance Australia to run 'nasty, negative material' against Chesters.
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However, Danny O'Brien, the leader of the Victorian Nationals, said Allan can't have it both ways.
'She can't say that the good result was all her government's doing then in her own backyard say that the 10 per cent swing against her party was something else,' he said.
'Absolutely this is a reflection on the premier and her government in Bendigo.
'There's very good reason for the premier and her colleagues in the Bendigo region to be concerned.'
Pete Gavin, a community music co-ordinator, voted Greens but preferenced Labor. He likes both Allan and Chesters and hopes they remain.
He was surprised at the visibility of the Nationals' campaign and how many young people were involved.
'Perhaps I should be a little more active in convincing people to be a little more responsible when they vote next time,' Gavin said.
'My partner keeps bringing that up that there are a lot of signs and they're sick of seeing them.'
Despite being too young to vote, 17-year-old Zoe Peters said Lethlean's campaign was hard to miss.
'I've seen a lot of cars with 'Andrew Lethlean' signage on the back and I've noticed on TikTok a lot of younger people handing out the fliers at the polling places,' she said.
'It looked like a lot more young people were involved than they used to be.'
Zoe's friend Evie Nuttall has also noticed Lethlean's presence across the region, making himself seen at community events.
'The Andrew bloke came to my footy game,' she said. 'I've seen a lot of signage for him.'
Speaking outside the vote counting centre on Thursday, McKenzie scoffed at reports the party had spent between $1 million and $2 million.
'Insert laugh,' the senator said.
McKenzie insisted the campaign didn't even rank among the top 30 Coalition seats in terms of expenditure.
'We were flooded with volunteers at the campaign office at the mall, and people know Andrew. If they didn't know him, they wanted to be part of something that was about changing how politics is done here in Bendigo,' she said.
Lethlean on Friday afternoon acknowledged he was unlikely to win the seat, but said he was proud to have achieved the biggest swing against Labor in the country.
'We ran a strong and positive campaign with plans for the future of our region, and we challenged the Labor government to achieve a fair share for our community,' he said.
'I am confident we won't be taken for granted again.'
Chesters declined to comment and by Friday night was yet to claim victory.
While Labor looks to have escaped with Bendigo, the Nationals' performance fires a warning shot for next year's state election.
'I would have suspected anyway that we would probably be running in Bendigo next year,' O'Brien said.
'Certainly, this shows there is a mood for change, that people in Bendigo are looking for a fresh start and there's an opportunity for them to see that with the Nationals.'
For her part, Allan insisted she takes nothing for granted in her seat of Bendigo East.
'I never have, and in the past the National Party, the Liberal Party have run in the seat of Bendigo West, and their decision in the future will be a matter for them,' she said.
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