Watching Southern Gulf For Potential Tropical Development
The National Hurricane Center is watching a cluster of showers and storms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is expected to move northwest into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. If this area of low pressure can stay over water, then tropical development is possible, but chances are low. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible across parts of Belize, Guatemala and southeast Mexico this weekend into next week.
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Washington Post
an hour ago
- Washington Post
The government cuts key data used in hurricane forecasting, and experts sound an alarm
Weather experts are warning that hurricane forecasts will be severely hampered by the upcoming cutoff of key data from U.S. Department of Defense satellites, the latest Trump administration move with potential consequences for the quality of forecasting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it would discontinue the 'ingest, processing and distribution' of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department. The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center.
Associated Press
an hour ago
- Associated Press
The government cuts key data used in hurricane forecasting, and experts sound an alarm
Weather experts are warning that hurricane forecasts will be severely hampered by the upcoming cutoff of key data from U.S. Department of Defense satellites, the latest Trump administration move with potential consequences for the quality of forecasting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it would discontinue the 'ingest, processing and distribution' of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department. The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center. It wasn't immediately clear why the government planned to cut off the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's microwave data by Monday. The Defense Department referred questions to the Air Force, which referred them to the Navy, which did not immediately provide comment. NOAA did not immediately respond to a message. Unlike traditional weather satellites, the microwave data helps peer under a regular image of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone to see what is going on inside the storm, and it is especially helpful at night. The news is especially noteworthy during the ongoing hurricane season and as lesser storms have become more frequent, deadly and costly as climate change is worsened by the burning of fossil fuels. Microwave imagery allows researchers and forecasters to see the center of the storm. Experts say that can help in detecting the rapid intensification of storms and in more accurately plotting the likely path of dangerous weather. 'If a hurricane, let's say, is approaching the Gulf Coast, it's a day away from making landfall, it's nighttime,' said Union of Concerned Scientists science fellow Marc Alessi. 'We will no longer be able to say, OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that.' Other microwave data will be available but only roughly half as much, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said in a blog post. He said that greatly increases the odds that forecasters will miss rapid intensification, underestimate intensity or misplace the storm. That 'will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines,' he said. University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy called the loss of data 'alarmingly bad news' in a post on Bluesky. 'Microwave data are already relatively sparse, so any loss — even gradual as satellites or instruments fail — is a big deal; but to abruptly end three active functioning satellites is insanity.' NOAA and its National Weather Service office have been the target of several cuts and changes in President Donald Trump's second term. The Department of Government Efficiency gutted the agency's workforce, local field offices and funding. Already, hurricane forecasts were anticipated to be less accurate this year because weather balloons launches have been curtailed because of the lack of staffing. 'What happened this week is another attempt by the Trump administration to sabotage our weather and climate infrastructure,' Alessi said. ___ Alexa St. John is an Associated Press climate reporter. Follow her on X: @alexa_stjohn. Reach her at [email protected]. ___ Read more of AP's climate coverage at ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
New York Times
2 hours ago
- New York Times
Critical Hurricane Monitoring Data Is Going Offline
The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration has said that in the next few days it will stop providing data from satellites that have been helping hurricane forecasters do their jobs for decades, citing 'recent service changes' as the cause. The satellites are jointly operated by NOAA and the Department of Defense as part of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. They are old, dating to the early 2000s, but they have reliably helped improve hurricane forecasting for decades. The data will be halted by Monday, June 30, the agency said, without giving further explanation. 'This is an incredibly big hit for hurricane forecasts, and for the tens of millions of Americans who live in hurricane-prone areas,' said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist in South Florida who has worked at the National Hurricane Center and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The satellites orbit the poles and use microwave radiation to peer inside a hurricane to reveal changes in a storm's structure. This information is critical for accurately predicting the path of storms and detecting hurricane intensification, particularly at night. The satellites are not being decommissioned, but their data will no longer be received, processed or stored. Satellites can't last forever and are eventually retired, but it is not clear that is the case here, said Andy Hazelton, a hurricane modeling expert at the University of Miami. 'We don't want to have less data for no reason,' he said. NOAA did not respond to a request for comment. Forecasters rely on various satellite-based tools to monitor tropical cyclones and hurricanes and predict their behavior. Observations of cloud tops and precipitation bands help forecasters see how a storm is moving and spreading. Come nightfall, microwave observation satellites work like forecasters' night-vision goggles. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
