Crime rates show hopeful decline — Is South Africa turning the corner on violence?

Daily Maverick

7 days ago

New official statistics showing decreased violent crime should provide the impetus for expanding holistic violence prevention strategies.
South Africa's serious violent crime problem has received unprecedented global attention since President Cyril Ramaphosa met United States President Donald Trump last week in the White House.
However, new data suggests that there could be cause for optimism. The January-March 2025 crime statistics released by Police Minister Senzo Mchunu on 23 May 2025 show that while violent crime remains high, notable decreases occurred in key categories such as murder.
If South Africa is indeed turning a corner, what could be the cause, and how can we sustain the trend?
The long-term trend for murder rates (Chart 1) suggests a strong correlation between levels of good governance and crime. The sharp increase between 1979 and 1993 reflects political violence during the last decade of apartheid, much of which occurred with the complicity or involvement of the state. The rate peaked in 1993 at around 70 murders per 100,000 people.
The equally dramatic decrease between 1994 and 2011 was an expected consequence of settling political strife as South Africa adapted to a new democracy. The lowest rate on record in 2011 was associated with the 2010 Soccer World Cup — which united South Africans behind a government determined to host a safe international event.
The negative turnaround since then started two years after Jacob Zuma took office as president in 2009. Persistent increases over the next 13 years were associated with a weakening of state institutions and rule of law during State Capture.
Corruption at all levels of government rose, and local criminal groups became embedded in many communities, leading to more illicit firearms, drugs, robberies, extortion and kidnapping. A 2024 Institute for Security Studies (ISS) analysis of firearm crime indicated that the availability of illegal guns in the hands of criminals fuelled violence.
The ISS' Protest and Public Violence Monitor shows how South Africans feel about crime and governance. Since 2013, there have been more than 1,250 protests over crime nationwide, often concentrated in cities. These demonstrations represent just over 11% of all protests recorded, and frequently occur in cities where violent crime is high.
Many of these protests were against the police or local authorities, often intensified by poor governance and service delivery, including water and electricity woes.
The latest police statistics show notable drops in major violent crimes when comparing January-March 2025 with the same quarter in 2024 (Chart 2). Murder levels decreased by 12.2% to 5,727 murders, or an average of 64 per day.
Aggravated robbery dropped by 10.4% to 31,749 cases — an average of 353 a day. This decrease was driven mainly by the fall in non-residential robberies and carjacking, which are among the types of robbery making up the aggravated robbery category. Attempted murders were down 5.8% to 6,985 incidents, and serious assaults fell 5.3% to 43,776. Overall, sexual offence levels remained largely unchanged at 13,452 (six more cases), though rape increased by 36 cases.
Kidnappings were the most significant exception to the downward trend for violent crime, rising by 6.8% to reach 4,571 cases. This suggests that kidnapping is increasingly being adopted as a low-risk, high-reward offence.
The reduction in murder rates is good news, but it's too early to know whether this is an outlier in an ongoing upward trend or the start of a sustained decrease underpinned by stronger governance. As promising as this is, better governance alone won't address persistently high violence levels. Even at its lowest point in 2011, the murder rate was more than five times higher than the international average.
A deeper look at the latest statistics shows that two key factors drive violent crime in South Africa. The first is the prevalence of organised crime, which drives most robberies, kidnappings and gun violence. Organised and syndicated crimes can be reduced by intelligence-driven, targeted policing.
The second factor is interpersonal violence. Half of all murders occur over weekends, and many are associated with the excessive use of alcohol, drugs or both. Violent crime is highest in the metropolitan areas, which account for over half of these offences nationwide. The four most populous provinces — Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and Eastern Cape — contribute 72% of murders nationally.
Though murder and attempted murder rates in Gauteng are comparable with the province's share of the national population, the province (especially Johannesburg) is a focal point for two violent crime types. Gauteng accounts for 36% of armed robberies (including 55% of all car hijackings) and 53% of kidnappings nationally.
Regarding rural safety, the statistics show that six people were murdered on farms or smallholdings in the past quarter, two of whom were farmers. Mchunu said both were black farmers. The other four victims were employed or resident on farms (one was white).
A high number of children are killed in South Africa, often in crossfire or at the hands of their caregivers. The SAPS estimates that 1,100 children were murdered between April 2024 and March 2025. A 2015 Save the Children South Africa and University of Cape Town study showed that violence against children costs the country R238-billion annually — combining direct and opportunity costs.
Exposure to violence in childhood increases the chance of further victimisation later in life, and child victims could become adult perpetrators — sustaining intergenerational cycles of interpersonal violence.
Poor mental health
Experiencing violence in childhood is also associated with unemployment, dependency on grants, alcohol dependence and poor mental health.
Better leadership and commitment by the government to curb violence could be starting to yield results. There is a renewed effort to strengthen the criminal justice system and strong turnaround strategies in the National Prosecuting Authority and South African Police Service, including partnerships with civil society organisations and the private sector.
Good, trustworthy government, strong rule of law and effective criminal justice and civilian oversight institutions are key to reducing crime and violence. But they aren't enough to increase safety to the extent needed for a strong, healthy, more equitable society.
A holistic approach is vital, such as in the Presidency's 2022 Integrated Crime and Violence Prevention Strategy. The strategy applies lessons from research, showing that a caring state supporting caregivers and families is key to breaking cycles of violence in the long term. This requires strong, sustained partnerships across sectors and the involvement of all South Africans.