Why NSW gambling on a pair of sevens is such a big call
Nathan Cleary and Mitch Moses are about to take a step into the relative unknown, as one of NSW's most unique halves pairings in State of Origin history.
After 129 Origins across 45 years, Wednesday night will mark just the sixth game that NSW have partnered two traditional No.7s in the halves.
The previous duo was Trent Hodkinson and Mitchell Pearce in 2015.
Outside of that, Des Hasler played one game with each of Greg Alexander and Ricky Stuart in 1989 and 1990.
For the past week, Moses and Cleary have been adamant striking the right balance as a combination won't be an issue.
Almost immediately upon walking into camp Moses accepted the role of being a running five-eighth, handing on-ball conductor duties to Cleary.
Moses will defend on the left, while both will likely have the freedom to attack on both sides.
In theory, the plan seems perfect. Moses and Cleary are two of the best playmakers in the NRL and both thrive in big moments.
How it works in practice may determine the fate of this series.
"Our situation was similar to Nathan and Mitch," Hodkinson told AAP.
"Mitch is like that Pearcey style, he's that hybrid half. He has a very strong running game, as does Nathan.
"But Nathan's your more structured, direction type of halfback. So I think it really works.
"We did really well in that 2015 series."
In the lead up to 2015, Pearce handed controlling duties to Hodkinson.
The pair linked up for a try in Origin I, but Pearce still had 18 more touches than the listed No.7 in the 11-10 loss.
And with the game in the balance, NSW fluffed a shot at field goal when Hodkinson was set for the shot but Pearce received the ball and flung it out wide.
Three weeks later, the touches evened out as NSW had their best attacking night since 2005 with a 26-18 win in Melbourne.
"That just comes with time together," Hodkinson said.
"You don't have a whole lot of time in camp. You have sessions, but an actual Origin game is totally different.
"So when you get the feel of that in game one ... that definitely made it easier.
"Game one to game two, they'll just build some more confidence. Hopefully they can get it going a lot earlier though."
NSW, with little good ball to attack with, were beaten 52-6 in the 2015 decider.
Queensland's only experience of two halfbacks together involved Johnathan Thurston at No.6 - and the NRL great notably spent parts of his career as a five-eighth.
Thurston and Cooper Cronk dominated between 2012 and 2017.
But even the great Maroons side lost every time Cronk was injured and another No.7 in Daly Cherry-Evans joined Thurston.
Almost all agree the biggest benefit of the Moses-Cleary partnership is their kicking game, a point coach Laurie Daley listed as a reason for the call.
"That is the yin and the yang that works for NSW," Cronk said on the Matty & Cronk show this week.
"Let one go, the other one stands up.
"Moses is the best kicker from 50-metre plus. He will turn an average set into a great set.
"And if he can control the long-game kicking as it gets closer to the tryline, Nathan controls a little bit more."
Blues selectors have toyed with other unique combinations in the past.
Andrew Johns came off the bench in 2000, and was listed at No.9 in the mid 1990s while No.7 Geoff Toovey largely played dummy-half.
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Dearden proved himself as a starter for Queensland and Australia last year and was the form halves player among Queenslanders heading into Origin game one this year. It was a big mistake by Slater to leave him out of the starting side for that game. He should've been the halfback, with DCE left out altogether. Queensland have had success in recent years with the formula of picking two hookers in their 17. They need to go back to that and with Ben Hunt unavailable through injury then Kurt Mann, a genuine utility, is the obvious bench choice. Cameron Munster at five-eighth for the Maroons was below par in Origin I as well, but Munster is 30 and DCE 36. It would make no sense to give Munster the flick instead of DCE. And Munster has that ad-lib ability to create try-scoring opportunities out of nothing, which the Maroons desperately need to cling on to at the moment. Queensland haven't scored a try in a 13-against-13 situation against NSW in the last two Origins - game three last year, when their four points came from penalty goals, and the most recent game when their only try came when the Blues had a player in the sin bin. How well someone like DCE might play at club level between Origins doesn't really matter now. It's how he fared, and as an older player, in Origin I that counts. DCE has been a great player, but he's not going to get better. The big challenge for a player at his age is just to try to hold his form. It's got to be Dearden at No.7, busier and playing more direct and threatening than DCE did in Origin I, and the Maroons must also consider others who can be more troubling to the defence such as Selwyn Cobbo on the wing instead of Valentine Holmes. Corey Horsburgh is also worth a recall to Origin in the forwards. 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During his time as Queensland coach Slater hasn't given any indications he's a sentimentalist, so if he sticks with DCE he would have to genuinely believe the veteran can turn it around. I just think it's time for Dearden to be handed the keys to the side. Canberra will be playing for the competition lead when they meet South Sydney on Sunday. The Raiders are only two competition points and two differential points behind leaders Canterbury and the Bulldogs have already had two byes while Canberra are the only team still not to have had any. If they win and go top of the table it might only last 24 hours since Canterbury play Parramatta at Homebush on Monday, but it would still be fun! I'd hate to put the mock on the Raiders, but I don't see this as a game the Rabbitohs - even with the return of a couple of key players in Cody Walker and ex-Raider Jack Wighton - can win. Souths' defence doesn't do enough to support their attack. They lose intensity and concentration at vital stages of games and that makes it much harder for them to win. They have to rely too much on trying to string together big plays in a hurry. Canberra are a terrific all-round team. It'll be another good test for them, because they'll have to hold their nerve if Souths pull it together in attack, but if they keep going the way they've been going they should be fine. I'm not going to predict Brisbane will end their poor recent run of form by beating last-placed Gold Coast on Saturday night. I'm not going to say anything. I don't know what the hell's wrong with them, but it's fascinating to watch and wonder if they'll ever come good again. Now is the time for Queensland coach Billy Slater to end the State of Origin career of veteran halfback and Maroons captain Daly Cherry-Evans. Cherry-Evans chose to remain available for Origin this year rather than retire from representative football and that was his right, but he did so at the risk of eventually having the decision made for him and that risk is now huge. It's not just about Queensland's 18-6 loss to NSW in game one and DCE's poor form in that match. It's about what needs to be done with the overall make-up of the team. Picking Tom Dearden on the bench is pointless. He must either be in the starting side or not in the 17 at all. He's not a genuine back-up hooker and to be there to cover for the halves is a luxury the Maroons can't afford. Dearden proved himself as a starter for Queensland and Australia last year and was the form halves player among Queenslanders heading into Origin game one this year. It was a big mistake by Slater to leave him out of the starting side for that game. He should've been the halfback, with DCE left out altogether. Queensland have had success in recent years with the formula of picking two hookers in their 17. They need to go back to that and with Ben Hunt unavailable through injury then Kurt Mann, a genuine utility, is the obvious bench choice. Cameron Munster at five-eighth for the Maroons was below par in Origin I as well, but Munster is 30 and DCE 36. It would make no sense to give Munster the flick instead of DCE. And Munster has that ad-lib ability to create try-scoring opportunities out of nothing, which the Maroons desperately need to cling on to at the moment. Queensland haven't scored a try in a 13-against-13 situation against NSW in the last two Origins - game three last year, when their four points came from penalty goals, and the most recent game when their only try came when the Blues had a player in the sin bin. How well someone like DCE might play at club level between Origins doesn't really matter now. It's how he fared, and as an older player, in Origin I that counts. DCE has been a great player, but he's not going to get better. The big challenge for a player at his age is just to try to hold his form. It's got to be Dearden at No.7, busier and playing more direct and threatening than DCE did in Origin I, and the Maroons must also consider others who can be more troubling to the defence such as Selwyn Cobbo on the wing instead of Valentine Holmes. Corey Horsburgh is also worth a recall to Origin in the forwards. His form this season has been right in line with his Canberra team's form as a whole and they've earned their spot near the top of the NRL table. Queensland need to find more aggression after being beaten in the forwards in game one and Horsburgh would bring that. Slater is a deep thinker and he will have run through the various team-choice scenarios a thousand times in his mind before the Maroons team for game two at Optus Stadium in Perth on June 18 is named after this weekend's NRL round. MORE NRL NEWS He has talked openly about change being necessary, but has stressed it can come through a better approach and increased discipline from existing players as well as it might through personnel changes. There will be personnel changes though. There can't not be. They'll just probably be kept to a minimum. During his time as Queensland coach Slater hasn't given any indications he's a sentimentalist, so if he sticks with DCE he would have to genuinely believe the veteran can turn it around. I just think it's time for Dearden to be handed the keys to the side. Canberra will be playing for the competition lead when they meet South Sydney on Sunday. The Raiders are only two competition points and two differential points behind leaders Canterbury and the Bulldogs have already had two byes while Canberra are the only team still not to have had any. If they win and go top of the table it might only last 24 hours since Canterbury play Parramatta at Homebush on Monday, but it would still be fun! I'd hate to put the mock on the Raiders, but I don't see this as a game the Rabbitohs - even with the return of a couple of key players in Cody Walker and ex-Raider Jack Wighton - can win. Souths' defence doesn't do enough to support their attack. They lose intensity and concentration at vital stages of games and that makes it much harder for them to win. They have to rely too much on trying to string together big plays in a hurry. Canberra are a terrific all-round team. It'll be another good test for them, because they'll have to hold their nerve if Souths pull it together in attack, but if they keep going the way they've been going they should be fine. I'm not going to predict Brisbane will end their poor recent run of form by beating last-placed Gold Coast on Saturday night. I'm not going to say anything. I don't know what the hell's wrong with them, but it's fascinating to watch and wonder if they'll ever come good again.
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Bulldogs AFL coach Luke Beveridge weighs in on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan speculation
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