Japan researchers use new method to analyze extreme weather and global warming
Researchers in Japan are placing great hope in the country's first organization to analyze the impact of global warming on extreme weather exclusively through a method called "event attribution."
Scientists taking part in the newly launched Weather Attribution Center Japan, mainly from the University of Tokyo and Kyoto University, held a news conference in Tokyo on Tuesday.
By using the event attribution method, they say they can simulate both the current Earth influenced by historical global warming and a hypothetical Earth without warming. They say this enables them to assess the extent of human-induced climate change that affects extreme weather such as record-level heat and rain.
The center cited an example that the probability of the occurrence of the severe heat wave that hit Japan in July last year was 21 percent. But it said the percentage was nearly zero in a hypothetical environment without global warming.
The center plans to use the method to analyze weather conditions in Japan. It says it can analyze the impact of global warming on a specific weather event within a few days of its occurrence, and will publicize the findings on its website. Such analysis would take one to two months with conventional methodology.
The researchers expressed hope that the quick sharing of information will help enhance public interest in tackling global warming, as people's memory would still be fresh.
They say they will focus on heat waves this fiscal year. They also plan to begin releasing their analysis on heavy rain next year.
Associate Professor Imada Yukiko of the University of Tokyo said she wants to help people associate extreme weather with climate change by sharing the information in a way that ordinary people can easily understand. She added she hopes people will become personally aware of the risk of climate change.
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