Gold prices to dampen after Akshaya Tritiya? Experts offer cautious stance

Time of India

29-04-2025

Gold demand in India
is showing no signs of slowing down, even after prices surpassed the record high of Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams, with
Akshaya Tritiya
just around the corner. The auspicious day, associated with prosperity, sees many people purchasing gold and silver as symbols of wealth and good fortune.
Why does gold continue to attract buyers despite sky-high prices?
The yellow metal continues to lure customers, thanks to its impressive returns over the past two years. Experts attribute the surge in consumer interest to a growing preference for lightweight designs and studded jewellery.
Rajesh Rokde, chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Council of India (GJC), said gold has provided consistent returns of 20–25% annually over the last two years, boosting consumer confidence.
'Last year, on Akshaya Tritiya, the gold price was Rs 72,000 per 10 gm, and in 2023 it was Rs 58,000.
With an annual growth rate of 20–25%, this steady increase is attracting numerous buyers. Because of this rally in gold, people are increasingly investing in it due to the strong returns over the past two years,' Rokde told ANI.
He further added that India imported 802 tonnes of gold in 2024, up from 741 tonnes in 2023, reflecting continued strong demand despite soaring prices.
Jewellers, too, are gearing up for a busy season.
Saurabh Gadgil, chairman and managing director of PNG Jewellers, said the overlap with the wedding season has further boosted footfall.
'This year, Akshaya Tritiya is falling at the cusp of a packed wedding season. We anticipate a strong turnout, both for fresh purchases and for deliveries scheduled on the day. Rising
gold prices
have accelerated consumer interest in studded jewellery,' he said, adding that many are also exchanging old gold to buy bridal ornaments.
Pullback in the yellow metal?
Commodity analysts believe that gold prices are likely to see a pullback in the coming months, after the ongoing upward momentum, and offered a more cautious outlook on future returns.
Ajay Kedia, director of Kedia Advisory, said, 'Gold has delivered an impressive return of about 32% since the last Akshaya Tritiya. However, for the year ahead, it is advisable to buy gold only for ceremonial purposes rather than with an investment motive, as returns are expected to moderate to around 6–7%, in line with inflation.
As a result, a cooling in gold prices is anticipated towards the Rs 86,000–Rs 87,000 level.
'
Kaynat Chainwala, AVP of commodity research at Kotak Securities, attributed the recent dip in gold prices on COMEX and MCX to global market dynamics, noting that easing US tariffs and improved investor sentiment played a key role in the decline.
She said that broadly, uncertain trade negotiations and upcoming economic data are expected to keep gold prices range-bound in the near term.
'Further pullbacks cannot be ruled out if sentiment continues to improve, but any escalation in trade tensions could lend renewed support to gold prices, keeping investors cautious and focused on headlines,' she said.
Still, some analysts remain optimistic. Manav Modi, senior analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, continues to recommend a 'buy on dips' approach. 'Key support for gold is near Rs 90,000–Rs 91,000, and resistance is around Rs 99,000. Long-term targets are set at Rs 1,06,000,' he said.
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