Viktor Orban tightens grip on freedoms in Hungary ahead of election next year

Japan Times

20-05-2025

Two years after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban returned to power in 2010, he told an audience of entrepreneurs that Hungary was a nation that he "hoped to God' wouldn't one day need to replace democracy. Hungarians are now wondering if their leader is doing just that.
The parliament in Budapest on Tuesday was set to start debating legislation that seeks to cut off money to civil society and media receiving foreign funding and which a state agency set up by Orban's government deems a threat.
The rules aim to "strengthen national sovereignty' by guaranteeing the "transparency' of groups working in the public interest, the draft bill states.
Critics have likened the move to President Vladimir Putin's attempts to crack down on domestic rivals in Russia, and thousands protested in Hungary's capital on Sunday.
But with Orban facing a tight election next year and emboldened by his ally Donald Trump back in the White House, the European Union's renegade leader is unlikely to back down.
Over the past 15 years, the premier has expelled a university, overhauled the judiciary and whipped up propaganda campaigns against political opponents. Now the attack on political pluralism in Hungary has accelerated, according to Daniel Hegedus, a regional director at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin.
"The proverbial frog that's being boiled is always trying to stay optimistic about the water temperature,' he said. "Hungary is getting to the point where it's only the absence of violence that differentiates it from what civil society and the media face in places like Russia.'
Orban, the first European leader to congratulate Trump on his reelection, saw the American president's return as vindication of his own brand of nationalist populism on the world stage.
The Hungarian prime minister is also an ally of Putin, and has been forging closer ties with autocratic leaders in Central Asia while hitting out at fellow EU and NATO members.
The EU has regularly censured Orban, but it took years before the bloc suspended some funds for Hungary. The U.S.'s retreat as a critic has given Orban "free rein,' said Peter Kreko, the head of the Political Capital Institute, a Budapest-based think tank.
The latest crackdown started in March after Orban's Fidesz was overtaken in the polls by Tisza, an upstart movement led by former ruling party insider Peter Magyar. Orban vowed to crush dissent, comparing independent journalists and judges to insects.
Two months later, a ruling party lawmaker submitted a bill proposing to bar blacklisted organizations from receiving donations from the 1% of personal income tax Hungarians can channel to causes. Organizations will also face stricter reporting requirements, onerous fines and even asset freezes.
People gather in Budapest on Sunday to protest against a bill that would crack down on foreign-funded organizations. |
Reuters
The bill is incompatible with Hungary's EU membership, according to Katalin Cseh, a former European Parliament member who's now an opposition lawmaker in Hungary. "This is an admission,' Cseh wrote on Facebook about the ruling party legislation. "It tells us where they're headed and it's away from Europe.'
Separately, non-EU dual citizens can now have their Hungarian citizenship suspended. A constitutional change also opened the way for police to ban the annual Pride parade for the LGBTQ+ community, while authorities will be able to use facial recognition to identify people participating in protests.
While Hungary's parliament discusses the new bill, Orban will host leaders of Turkic states from the former Soviet republics and Turkey, an organization that Hungary joined as an observer member. Indeed, in his 2012 speech about the possibility of jettisoning democracy, Orban referred to his country's "half-Asian' heritage and need for strong governance.
The EU has tried to counter Orban, who was able to build his self-proclaimed "illiberal democracy' while a member of the bloc, by suspending billions of euros in funding due to rule of law and corruption concerns. Brussels has also explored ways of circumventing Hungarian opposition on key decisions ranging from aid to Ukraine to sanctions against Russia.
Yet what might appear to be another show of strength could instead be a desperate attempt to cement his control, said Gabor Gyori, chief political analyst at Policy Solutions, another Budapest-based think tank.
For the first time since returning to power, Orban is facing a real possibility of losing an election, so must resort to other political strategies, he said. "Orban is trying to put the genie back in the bottle,' Gyori said.
Opposition leader Magyar put the government on the back foot, with relentless campaigning and savvy social media skills. That's helped him skirt the government's campaigns to assert Orban's dominance. His party placed second behind Fidesz in European and municipal elections last year.
Magyar has capitalized on a cost-of-living crisis and the perception of widespread corruption. Hungary's economic outlook continues to be shaky, with gross domestic product shrinking in the first quarter and the inflation rate and borrowing costs still one of the highest in the EU.
In an effort to jolt his supporters and connect with a younger crowd, Orban on Sunday staged what was headlined as a "Fight Club,' a high-tech event where the five-term premier urged the party faithful to create a "digital army' to combat Magyar's online presence.
"You know how I do things,' said Orban, who started out as a pro-democracy campaigner during Hungary's communist era. "Unity in important things, freedom in the rest, love in all.'
Orban's need to project strength now will likely mean that the crackdown on civil society and the media isn't an empty threat, said Hegedus of the German Marshall Fund. Even larger organizations with bigger budgets that include foreign funding, including EU grants, may shut down within a year or so, he predicted. "Orban can't afford to look weak now.'