US strikes set up 'cat-and-mouse' hunt for missing uranium

New Straits Times

12 hours ago

The United States and Israeli bombing of Iranian nuclear sites creates a conundrum for United Nations (UN) inspectors in Iran: how can you tell if enriched uranium stocks, some of them near weapons grade, were buried beneath the rubble or had been secretly hidden away?
Following last weekend's attacks on three of Iran's top nuclear sites — at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — President Donald Trump said the facilities had been "obliterated" by US munitions, including bunker-busting bombs.
But the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which monitors Teheran's nuclear programme, has said it's unclear exactly what damage was sustained at Fordow, a plant buried deep inside a mountain that produced the bulk of Iran's most highly enriched uranium.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said yesterday it was highly likely the sensitive centrifuges used to enrich uranium inside Fordow were badly damaged. It's far less clear whether Iran's nine tonnes of enriched uranium — more than 400kg of it enriched to close to weapons grade — were destroyed.
Western governments are scrambling to determine what's become of it.
Olli Heinonen, previously the IAEA's top inspector from 2005 to 2010, said the search would probably involve complicated recovery of materials from damaged buildings, as well as forensics and environmental sampling. This will take a long time.
"There could be materials which are inaccessible, distributed under the rubble or lost during the bombing," said Heinonen, who dealt extensively with Iran while at the IAEA and now works at the Stimson Centre think-tank in Washington.
Iran's more than 400kg of uranium enriched to up to 60 per cent purity — a short step from the roughly 90 per cent of weapons grade — are enough, if enriched further, for nine nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.
There are indications Iran may have moved some of its enriched uranium before it could be struck.
IAEA chief Grossi said Iran informed him on June 13, the day of Israel's first attacks, that it was taking measures to protect its nuclear equipment and materials.
While it did not elaborate, he said that suggested it was moved.
A Western diplomat said most of the enriched uranium at Fordow would appear to have been moved days in advance of the attacks, "almost as if they knew it was coming".
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth was unaware of any intelligence suggesting Iran had moved it. Trump has also dismissed such concerns.
A second Western diplomat said it would be a major challenge to verify the condition of the uranium stockpile, citing a long list of past disputes between the IAEA and Teheran, including Iran's failure to credibly explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites.
"It'll be a game of cat and mouse."
Before Israel launched its 12-day military campaign, the IAEA had regular access to Iran's enrichment sites and monitored what was inside them around the clock as part of the 191-nation Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, to which Iran is a party.
Now, rubble and ash blur the picture. What's more, Iran has threatened to stop working with the IAEA. Last Wednesday, Iran's parliament voted to suspend cooperation.
Teheran says a resolution last month passed by the IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations paved the way for Israel's attacks, which began the next day, by providing an element of diplomatic cover. The IAEA denies that.
Iran has repeatedly denied that it has an active programme to develop a nuclear bomb. And US intelligence had said there was no evidence Teheran was taking steps towards developing one.
However, experts say there is no reason for enriching uranium to 60 per cent for a civilian nuclear programme, which can run on less than five per cent enrichment.
As a party to the NPT, Iran must account for its stock of enriched uranium.
The IAEA can and does receive intelligence from member states, which include the US and Israel, but says it takes nothing at face value and independently verifies tip-offs.
"If the Iranians come clean with the 400kg of HEU (highly enriched uranium) then the problem is manageable, but if they don't then nobody will ever be sure what happened to it," said a third Western diplomat.