Moody's Ratings cuts India's 2025 growth forecast to 6.3%
New Delhi: India's economy is likely to grow slower at 6.3 percent in 2025 from 6.7 percent in the previous year, Moody's Ratings said on Tuesday, flagging tensions with Pakistan.
The trimmed forecast comes just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank lowered India's and the world's growth estimates. 'Uncertainty surrounding global economic policies is likely to take a toll on consumer, business and financial activity,' the ratings agency said in its Global Macro Outlook's May update.
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Time of India
9 hours ago
- Time of India
Maha Kumbh 2025: The divine catalyst behind India's rise as the world's 4th largest economy
(File photo) Maha Kumbh By: Pankaj Jaiswal India has made a historic leap by overtaking Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, with a GDP of $4.19 trillion, as per the latest figures released by IMF. While this milestone is the result of long-term policy vision and economic reforms, Maha Kumbh 2025 played a decisive, game-changing role delivering the "economic sixer" that clinched India's fourth-place position. For the past two years, India and Japan were neck and neck in the race for fourth place. But the grand Maha Kumbh held in Prayagraj injected massive momentum into India's economy. The event led to an estimated Rs 4 lakh crore in direct and indirect spending, boosting consumption across multiple sectors including retail, transport, hospitality, healthcare, digital services, MSMEs, and FMCG. This surge in demand energized the economy much like a wartime production boom transforms a nation's industrial output. Consequently, India's GDP for FY 2024–25 exceeded expectations by nearly 1%. Without Maha Kumbh 2025, India may have narrowly missed this milestone. I had already said at the start of the Kumbh that it would revise India's GDP forecast by 1% and that's exactly what happened." Maha Kumbh- A Demand-Driven Economic Injection Maha Kumbh didn't just offer spiritual upliftment it acted as an economic stimulus of unparalleled magnitude. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Giao dịch vàng CFDs với mức chênh lệch giá thấp nhất IC Markets Đăng ký Undo The influx of millions of pilgrims led to a direct surge in travel, accommodation, food, shopping, medical care, and digital transactions. It wasn't just a temporary bump, the infrastructure created in the run-up to the event, such as roads, bridges, digital connectivity, Ganga rejuvenation, and Smart City projects, continue to benefit the region and the country at large. This was not a coincidence, but a result of visionary governance. Under the leadership of UP CM Yogi Adityanath, the Maha Kumbh became a powerful demonstration of how faith and economic growth can walk hand-in-hand. The global audience witnessed Sanatan Economics in action a model where spirituality and sustainability drive structural development. Maha Kumbh is a prime example of India's festival-driven, demand-led economic framework that maintains constant economic dynamism. The Three Pillars of India's Rise as a Forth Economy In addition to this Maha Kumbh, India's ascent to the fourth spot stands on three core pillars: 1. Strong Policy and Leadership Under PM Narendra Modi, India's policy framework Make in India, Digital India, UPI, GST, PM GatiShakti, Bharatmala, Sagarmala, UDAN has re-energized productivity, reduced imports, boosted domestic manufacturing, and modernized supply chains. Infrastructure push played a pivotal role just like a skeleton and arteries are essential for the human body, physical infrastructure and logistics are vital to an economy. Nitin Gadkari has played vital role in India's infrastructure landscape, bringing in equitable distribution of opportunities and investments. 2. India's Youthful and Festive Population India's population is not a burden but an asset, unlike many African nations or even China now facing demographic challenges. This demographic dividend has become the engine of production, consumption, and innovation. With schemes like Ayushman Bharat, Skill India, and PM Vishwakarma, the youth is becoming increasingly empowered. India's festive culture acts as a perpetual economic catalyst, where events like festivals, marriages, and pilgrimages create sustained demand and protect the economy from global slowdowns. 3. India's Unmatched Growth Rate India's growth rate surpasses that of its economic competitors. As per IMF data, the closest rival, China, lags with a 4% growth rate. Germany, the third-largest economy, has near-stagnant growth. The U.S. stands at 1.8%, Japan at 0.6%, and the UK at 1.1%. In contrast, India's growth, powered by infrastructure, demographics, and festive demand, is robust and dynamic. When this is paired with Sanatan Economics and national culture, India's rise becomes inevitable. The Road to the Top 3 India's next goal is to break into the global top 3. Only three countries now stand ahead, Germany, China, and the US. Surpassing Germany is achievable, given their smaller population, lower growth, and limited consumption base. However, overtaking China and the US will require two bold strategic shifts. First, A National Movement for Swadeshi (Indigenous Products) Due to WTO rules, the government cannot directly push for Swadeshi, but citizens can voluntarily shift to Indian products over Chinese or American ones. This consumer revolution can substantially lift the domestic economy. Second, Focus on Innovation and Patents India must transform its businesses into innovation-led, IP-rich enterprises. Global premium pricing and economic superiority will come only when India builds a knowledge economy and this is the only path to match or surpass the U.S. The final conclusion is that the Sanatan Economics is India's Silent Strength. It is not just a matter of faith, it has economic force too. If India integrates its festival-driven economy into national planning and scales it up strategically, then the dream of becoming a developed nation is not far off. (Writer is an economist and chartered accountant) Get the latest lifestyle updates on Times of India, along with Eid wishes , messages , and quotes !
Indian Express
15 hours ago
- Indian Express
For a $5 trillion economy, India must embrace cutting-edge tech
The Indian economy is on the threshold of crossing another milestone and becoming the fourth-largest in the world. It is a commendable achievement for a country that began its journey as an independent nation in 1947 with a meagre $33-billion economy. Decades of British exploitation left it significantly weakened and poor. The Jawaharlal Nehru government's Soviet-style central planning, while promoting heavy industries and the public sector, led to low economic growth of 3-4 per cent, pejoratively described as the 'Hindu rate of growth'. In 40 years, it could only reach the $266 billion mark. The first major leap came in 1991 when the Narasimha Rao government introduced economic liberalisation and unleashed the potential of Indian entrepreneurs. The opportunity offered by the digital revolution with the introduction of the internet was quickly seized by some of India's brightest tech entrepreneurs. The Indian economy grew manifold in the next two decades on the strength of its services economy, which contributed 60 per cent of the nation's GDP. The economy crossed $2 trillion by the time the Narendra Modi government came to power. The last 10 years have seen the Modi government giving greater emphasis to faster economic growth through programmes like Stand-Up India, Start-Up India and Make in India. The results are there to see. IMF data from May has projected that the Indian economy will overtake Japan this year, reaching the $4.19 trillion mark. Japan was once a $5.8 trillion economy but has shrunk to $ 4.18 trillion due to stagnation and slow growth rates since the 1990s. As India demonstrated promising growth, naysayers rushed forward to raise the hollow bogey of per capita income. Per capita income is determined by factors like the size of the population. India is the world's most populous country. As a result, whatever may be the size of GDP, its per capita figures are bound to remain low. No country's growth can be measured on the criterion of per capita income alone. Although the US is the world's largest economy with a $28 trillion GDP, it ranks seventh in per capita. China, the second-largest economy with $18 trillion, ranks 69. The per capita argument is worthless because even if India becomes the world's largest economy with $30 trillion, it will still be ranked 55th in terms of per capita. The only merit of this argument is that the country should be able to provide better living standards to all its citizens. In democracies, the fruits of economic growth percolate to all sections of society. This is reflected in the consumption patterns. Surveys indicate that the monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) has increased in India by more than 2.5 times in the last 10 years. Interestingly, most of this expenditure was on travel, health and education, indicating healthy growth parameters. Tourism has seen remarkable growth in the last 10 years. China still occupies the first rank in the number of domestic and international travellers. India lagged in this sector for decades due to a lack of disposable income and tourism infrastructure. But today, with the incomes of the middle class growing substantially, Indians have started travelling more. Data indicates about 2.5 billion domestic tourist visits last year. Figures for 2024 indicate that almost 29 million Indians travelled abroad marking a 30 per cent growth. All this indicates healthy economic growth, which has led to the near eradication of baseline poverty and the creation of a strong middle class with disposable income. The Modi government aspires to take the economy to further heights with targets ranging from $ 5 trillion in 2027 to $10 trillion in 2035. The current impressive growth is a result of corrective measures taken by the government. It removed parallel economy, allowed proper distribution of wealth and encouraged greater consumption. But the path from here needs to be calibrated carefully. Economies grow on the strength not just of consumption but also trade and technology. Quality, quantity and speed are the main determining factors. India and China were leading economies until the middle of the 18th century. But when the industrial revolution occurred first in England and later in America, those two countries surged ahead and became leading economic powers by the dawn of the 20th century. When automation and digitisation progressed in the last decades of the last century, China moved ahead of the curve, emerging as the second-largest economy by 2008. We are now in the post-manufacturing and post-digital era. Growth in frontier technologies will determine a country's economic future. A country of India's size and capability cannot just think perpetually in terms of catching up with the developed West and the rest. It has to, instead, think in terms of moving ahead of the curve. We missed the first two industrial revolutions as we were a slave nation at that time. We benefitted partially from the third, digital revolution of the 1980s and '90s and became a leader in sectors like IT services. But the Fourth Industrial Revolution, led by Artificial Intelligence (AI), quantum technologies, robotics, space, defence, crypto and bio-engineering calls for new thinking and new priorities. The impressive growth of the Indian economy in the last decade was largely due to the unleashing of its basic potential. The trajectory from here should be more strategic, with greater emphasis on deep-tech R&D, an area in which we lag. It is important to create a climate of hassle-free access to investments in these areas. Only then can India aspire to achieve its goal of becoming a $10 trillion economy in the next 10 years. The writer, president, India Foundation, is with the BJP
The Print
a day ago
- The Print
India's forex reserves drop USD 1.24 bln to USD 691.49 bln
Earlier in the day, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that at USD 691.5 billion, the reserves are sufficient to fund more than 11 months of goods imports and about 96 per cent of external debt outstanding. The overall reserves had jumped by USD 6.992 billion to USD 692.721 billion in the previous reporting week. The forex reserves had touched an all-time high of USD 704.885 billion in end-September 2024. Mumbai, Jun 6 (PTI) India's forex reserves dropped by USD 1.237 billion to USD 691.485 billion for the week ended May 30, the RBI said on Friday. For the week ended May 30, foreign currency assets, a major component of the reserves, decreased by USD 1.952 million to USD 584.215 billion, the data released on Friday showed. Expressed in dollar terms, the foreign currency assets include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of non-US units like the euro, pound and yen held in the foreign exchange reserves. The gold reserves increased by USD 723 million to USD 84.305 billion during the week, the RBI said. The Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) were down by USD 2 million to USD 18.569 billion, the apex bank said. India's reserve position with the IMF was also down by USD 6 million at USD 4.395 billion in the reporting week, the apex bank data showed. PTI AA SHW This report is auto-generated from PTI news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.
