Is now the time for a woman to break the four-minute mile barrier?

The Herald Scotland

6 hours ago

His run, and the circumstances surrounding it, have become athletics' folklore, and the sub-optimum conditions in which he undertook his sub-four minute run are unimaginable in comparison to these current times of ultra-professional, highly controlled environments in which record attempts take place.
It remains impossible to overstate the significance of the Englishman's run of 3 minutes 59.4 seconds, and it served to open the floodgates to a raft of further sub-four minute mile runs. Seven decades on, over 1500 men have dipped under the four minute mark for the mile, and earlier this year, even a fifteen-year-old broke the iconic barrier.
Roger Bannister broke the four minute mile barrier in 1954 (Image: Bettmann Archive/ Getty Images) As yet, however, no woman has never run a sub-four minute mile. Indeed, no woman has even come close.
Nevertheless, if all goes to plan, that will all change this week and no longer will the four-minute barrier seem unbreakable for women.
Firstly, the scale of the challenge must be laid out.
The current women's world record for the mile is 4 minutes 7.64 seconds, set in Monaco in 2023 by Kenya's Faith Kipyegon, the woman who will attempt to break the four minute barrier in Paris, in the coming days.
Other than Kipyegon, no woman has ever run under 4 minutes 12 seconds for the mile, highlighting just how sizeable a challenge targeting sub-four actually is.
Given Kipyegon's current best time is nearly eight seconds slower than she'll need to run this week, it means she will have to drop two seconds a lap to go sub-four. That's an astonishingly large chunk of time.
But there is evidence, or certainly the suggestion, that it is possible for a woman to run a sub-four minute mile.
That it is Kipyegon who will be making the attempt is a given; she's the only woman modern-day or historical, who has what it takes to get near the four minute mark, never mind break it.
The Kenyan is a phenomenon. She's one of the greatest female athletes to have ever lived; she's a three-time Olympic gold medallist over 1500m, has four world titles and is the current world 1500m record holder and so Kipyegon's athletic capabilities are beyond question.
Faith Kipyegon is a three-time Olympic champion (Image: Getty Images) She has stated her reason for this sub-four attempt is that she has, in short, achieved everything else there is to achieve in her sport.
'I achieved the world record, the Olympic record, Olympic medals, and World Championship Medals,' she said. 'I was like, 'what else can I achieve?'
It's a reasonable question.
Aiming for sub-four and achieving it, though, are two entirely different things.
There has been much scepticism about Kipyegon's, or any other woman's, ability to run sub-four.
Commentators have suggested she's living in 'la-la land' to think it's possible, and even Elliot Hill, the CEO of Nike, which is coordinating and organising the record attempt, has called it a 'moonshot'.
In theory, however, it's possible.
A study, the results of which were released earlier this year in the Royal Society Open Science journal, concluded that a woman, namely Kipyegon, can absolutely break the four-minute barrier.
There are caveats, though. Signifiant caveats.
Kipyegon's run will have to be closely managed if she has any chance of getting close.
Masterminded by Nike and entitled 'Breaking 4', it's in the same mould as Eliud Kipchoge's 'Breaking 2' project, which saw him dip under 2 hours for the marathon in 2019.
Just as Kipchoge's marathon run wasn't deemed 'legal' in terms of setting an official world record, neither will Kipyegon's run be classed as an official world record if she does, indeed, better her current mark.
It's estimated that to go sub-four minutes, Kipyegon, will have to make use of aerodynamic drafting, new shoe technology and lightening-quick pacing.
When running the current mile world record, she was on her own for the last 600m having dropped the rest of the field and so she's likely to shave a couple of seconds off her time purely by having pacers with her for the entirety of the race.
Kipyegon will be wearing the most up-to-date super shoes, will potentially be wearing a 'speed suit' and has a three-day window for the attempt to ensure as close as possible to perfect weather - the attempt is pencilled in for Thursday but Friday and Saturday are also viable alternatives if the weather initially doesn't play ball.
While these factors may shave fractions off Kipyegon's time, it's the pacing of her run that will be by far the most significant factor.
Her pacers will either be male and so will be able to maintain sub-four pace relatively comfortably, or will be female but will switch in and out as the race progresses. They will be strategically positioned with one pacer just over a metre behind Kipyegon and one just over a metre ahead of her to ensure optimum drafting potential. In addition, there will be pacing lights around the Paris track.
Despite the aides Kipyegon will make use of in her attempt next week, the majority of observers remain pessimistic that she will succeed in running sub-four.
Certainly, logic suggests that cutting over seven seconds off her previous best (and the world's best) is too large a drop to be realistic, particularly given that middle-distance world records are typical broken by fractions of a second rather than whole seconds at a time.
And Kipyegon, at 31 years of age, might perhaps be on the plateau of her career rather than still on the upward curve - she has not set a personal best since 2023.
None of the scepticism, though, should deter Kipyegon from trying.
At the time of Bannister's attempt 71 years ago, most said it was fanciful that he would succeed in going below four minutes. Of course, he did, in the face of the sceptics, manage it.
Similarly, Kipchoge's attempt to run a sub-two hour marathon was scoffed at, until he managed it, on his second attempt.
The unlikelihood that Kipyegon will succeed should not disqualify her from trying. If she manages 4:02 or 4:03, which is far more realistic than sub-four, it will highlight just what a woman is capable of, and will almost certainly embolden her peers - potentially Sifan Hassan, as well as others in the future - to aim for the sub-four barrier.
I hope Kipyegon manages to break four minutes next week.
But, even if she fails, it's likely we'll look back on this attempt as the first step on the path to what is inevitably coming - a female sub-four minute mile.