Mike Johnson is wrong: Millions could lose SNAP benefits under GOP bill, analysts find

Yahoo

3 days ago

Statement: 'We are not cutting' the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
As the Senate reviews the Trump administration-backed "big, beautiful bill," Republican lawmakers insist it will not reduce Americans' benefits.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said the bill won't affect the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, which helps low-income people buy food. An average of 42.1 million people participate in the program each month.
"We are not cutting SNAP," Johnson said in a May 25 episode of CBS News' "Face the Nation." "We're working in the elements of fraud, waste and abuse. SNAP for example, listen to the statistics, in 2024, over $11 billion in SNAP payments were erroneous."
There were about $10.5 billion estimated improper SNAP payments for fiscal year 2023 — payments made in the wrong amount or that should not have been made — according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That comes to about 11.7% of the program's payments.
But the bill does more than tackle waste and fraud. Three detailed, independent analyses of the reconciliation bill found it would cut the number of program beneficiaries by millions of people.
When asked for comment, Johnson spokesperson Griffin Neal referred PolitiFact to the speaker's full "Face the Nation" comments, in which he also said, "What we're doing is strengthening Medicaid and SNAP so that they can exist, so that they'll be there for the people that desperately need it the most, and it's not being taken advantage of."
Based on different provisions of the bill, analysts estimate roughly 1.3 million to 11 million people losing SNAP benefits. The Congressional Budget Office, Congress' nonpartisan economic and budgetary analysts, projected that a provision that expands work requirements would lead to an estimated 3.2 million people losing SNAP benefits in a given month.
"If enacted, this would be by far the largest cut to food assistance in history," said Katie Bergh, senior policy analyst on the food assistance team at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank. The group's analysis said the bill would cut federal funding for SNAP by about 30% altogether."We estimate that more than 2 million children live in low-income households that would lose SNAP entirely or see their food benefits substantially cut," Bergh said.
The average monthly SNAP benefit per person as of fiscal year 2024 was $187.54.
Multiple provisions in H.R. 1, or the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," would affect SNAP.
For one, the bill would allow only citizens and lawful permanent residents to receive SNAP benefits. It would also freeze increases to the Thrifty Food Plan. That plan establishes the average cost of a nutritious, home-prepared meal and is used as the basis for calculating households' maximum SNAP benefit amounts. By not allowing increases to the Thrifty Food Plan, households' SNAP benefits are less likely to keep pace with retail prices and inflation, and would in effect become cuts.
The bill also expands work requirements for SNAP eligibility. Currently, able-bodied recipients ages 18 to 54 with no dependents must work 80 hours per month to obtain SNAP benefits. The bill would raise the upper age limit to 64 for people who don't live with dependents and people who live with children ages 7 and older.
It also gives states less leeway to waive work requirements in areas with high unemployment rates, and it requires that they pay a share of SNAP benefit costs beginning in 2028. SNAP is currently fully funded by the federal government; under the bill, states would have to fund from 5% to 25% of SNAP costs, depending on their payment error rates. Error rates are calculated based on how accurately states determine eligibility and benefits.
In a May 22 letter, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the bill's provisions would "reduce spending on SNAP by $285.7 billion" over the next nine years, from 2025 to 2034.
The office estimated that the bill's work requirement expansion, coupled with the measure restricting states' ability to waive work requirements, would lead to an average of 3.2 million people in a given month losing SNAP benefits in the same nine-year period.
As for states' response to the newly mandated contributions, the CBO also estimated that "states collectively would reduce or eliminate benefits for about 1.3 million people in an average month" in the same period.
Allowing only citizens and lawful permanent residents to participate in SNAP would reduce $4 billion in spending, the office estimated.
Meanwhile, failing to increase the Thrifty Food Plan would bar increases to monthly SNAP benefits based on actual food prices and "reduce the federal government's direct spending by $37 billion" from 2027 to 2034, the CBO said.
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, based on its analysis published before the House passed the bill, had a higher estimate for the effect of the proposed work requirement expansion, saying it could cause nearly 11 million people to lose SNAP benefits. It said that SNAP's "deepest cuts" would come from the federal government pulling back on its funding by 5% to 25% and demanding states supply that instead.
"If a state can't make up for these massive federal cuts with tax increases or spending cuts elsewhere in its budget, it would have to cut its SNAP program (such as cutting eligibility or making it harder for people to enroll) or it could opt out of the program altogether, terminating food assistance entirely in the state," the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities' analysis said.
The Urban Institute, a Washington D.C. think tank, in a May 21 analysis estimated a more limited effect from the proposed work requirement expansion, but it still said millions of families would be affected. That provision "would result in 2.7 million families and 5.4 million people losing some or all of their family's SNAP benefits in a month, with an average loss of $254 per family per month," it said.
Johnson said the tax reform bill is "not cutting SNAP."
Analyses by the Congressional Budget Office, the Urban Institute and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities show that millions of people could be removed from SNAP if the bill is enacted.
We rate Johnson's claim False.
CBS News, Transcript: House Speaker Mike Johnson on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," May 25, 2025
Email exchange with Griffin Neal, spokesperson for House Speaker Mike Johnson, May 27, 2025
Emailed statement from Katie Bergh, senior policy analyst for food assistance at Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, May 28, 2025
Congress.gov, H.R.1 - One Big Beautiful Bill Act
Government Accountability Office, Improper Payments: USDA's Oversight of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Sept. 26, 2024
USDA Economic Research Service, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) - Key Statistics and Research, accessed May 28, 2025
USDA Food and Nutrition Service, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation and Costs, data as of May 9, 2025
Congressional Budget Office, Potential Effects on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program of Reconciliation Recommendations Pursuant to H. Con. Res. 14, May 22, 2025
Urban Institute, Expanded SNAP Work Requirements Would Reduce Benefits for Millions of Families, May 21, 2025
USDA Food and Nutrition Service, SNAP and the Thrifty Food Plan, accessed May 28, 2025
USDA Food and Nutrition Service, SNAP Quality Control, accessed May 29, 2025
USDA Food and Nutrition Service, USDA Food Plans, accessed May 29, 2025
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, By the Numbers: House Republican Reconciliation Bill Takes Food Assistance Away From Millions of People, updated May 23, 2025
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Expanded Work Requirements in House Republican Bill Would Take Away Food Assistance From Millions: State and Congressional District Estimates, May 13, 2025
The Urban Institute, Expanded SNAP Work Requirements Would Reduce Benefits for Millions of Families, May 21, 2025
The Washington Post, Some in GOP want big cuts to food assistance in Trump's tax bill. Committee chairs say no., May 1, 2025
The New York Times, What's Going On in This Graph? | SNAP 'Thrifty Food Plan', Oct. 7, 2021
Center for American Progress, RELEASE: The House Republican SNAP Cuts Would Take Food From Hungry Families, May 12, 2025
Politico, House budget bill would cut millions of people from food aid, CBO says, May 22, 2025
The New York Times, Here's What's in the Big Domestic Policy Bill to Deliver Trump's Agenda, May 22, 2025
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Millions could lose SNAP benefits under GOP bill, analysts find