Why this Edmonton-Florida Stanley Cup Finals may boil down to a war of attrition: 9 Things

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6 hours ago

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are many things.
The biggest stage in hockey. The brightest lights on ice. A young hockey player's lifelong dream.
But along with all those sexy things that help make the post-season irresistible, the finals can also come down to one thing…
…which team can win a war of attrition.
That and more in this edition of…
9. The Oilers have eighteen wins against just two losses over the past two year's worth of post-season games from game Four on. They know how to win. But the Florida Panthers are not just any opponent. More on that in a minute…
8. Only two players in the National Hockey League have recorded three sixty-goal seasons (including regular season and playoffs) since 2005-06: Leon Draisaitl, who scored his sixtieth of this campaign in Game One, and Alexander Ovechkin.
7. NHL officiating in the playoffs makes me just as crazy as it probably makes you. I actually do not mind if the usual stick infraction goes un-called for both sides once the whistles go away. Who cares? But the missed Too-Many-Men call against Florida Friday? That should fall into the same category as Puck Over Glass.
6. Corey Perry would become a UFA on July 1st. The veteran has been terrific this post-season and scored the goal that forced overtime on Friday. Even though the guy is forty, how do you not entertain bringing him back to Edmonton for another season? Even if he ends up half as productive, on the proper contract he would highly likely continue to be a plus.
5. The Oilers have signed forward Viljami Marjala to a two-year entry level contract. Someone who has seen him repeatedly tells me that he is primarily a play maker. The knock against the twenty-two-year-old is that he is slight (176 pounds) and not especially physical. Still, he was 8-44-52 in 54GP for TPS Turku of the SM-liiga in 2024-25. Expect him to be a Top six player in Bakersfield to start…where offensive skill has been in short supply the past couple years.
4. The Jack Adams Trophy for Coach of the Year goes to Washington's Spencer Carbery. A deserving winner, my complaint is not with the very fine Capitals bench boss. It is that despite delivering his team to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals Kris Knoblauch did not receive a single vote. I mean…not one. It, frankly, is not any better that Paul Maurice is not on the list either. I realize that the result it is based on the regular season. But just as I argued over the G.M.'s award, is it not a coach's primary job to win?
3. Elliotte Friedman reports that the Oilers are working on a contract extension for Trent Frederic. Frederic came to Edmonton in a three-team deal. The price tag for him included Shane Lachance, Maximus Wanner, a second in 2025 and a fourth in 2026. It would be good asset management to retain Frederic. He has been a very dependable defensive player with an edge who Kris Knoblauch clearly trusts. That last part is critical. We will get a better view of his skating and offensive talents once his high ankle sprain is fully healed. Think $3M+ on a longer-term deal.
2. I contend it is the nicest goal I have seen in the NHL all season, especially considering the quality of competition. The 3-2 goal Leon Draisaitl scored on Friday's game should hang in the Louvre. Connor McDavid first deked the reigning Selke winner Aleksander Barkov as if he were not even there. Then, he toe dragged Aaron Ekblad so hard the Panthers' elite defender ended up on his pants in McDavid's Wake. And just for good measure, McDavid sifted a pass through two more Florida players before Draisaitl slammed it home. Goals do not count extra for how pretty they are. But maybe that one should have! We are so blessed to have two players of this quality on the same club to watch every night.
1.Who will ultimately win the Stanley Cup this season may come down to a series of subtle adjustments on either side. I say that not only because i believe we are watching the best players in this series offering us elite level, entertaining hockey. But because of the quality up and down both lineups. When a battle like this one between Edmonton and Florida is so closely matched, it can sometimes come down to the little things that end up counting more than you might expect. And for me, one of those things is depth. But just having depth on your roster is not enough. The real key is to use it to your advantage in tactical, critical ways. Yes, there is precious little separating these two terrific hockey teams for now…but there are warning signs worth watching for that could ultimately separate the winners from the losers.
Depth often does not bear results until later in a series. Of note: Florida played their fourth line extraordinarily little on Friday. Jesper Boqvist was on for just 8:41 across four plus periods. Jonah Gadjovich skated just 8:53 and Tomas Nosek 13:13. That was barely more for that trio than in Game One (7:58, 6:04 and 9:20 respectively). The other team's fourth line in Game Two had Mattias Janmark (16:53), Viktor Arvidsson (15:39) and Vasily Podkolzin (12:45). That is not an insignificant difference. You may say 'But Leavins, Florida won doing that'. Sure. But you have to think that tactic starts to catch up with Florida's Top Six the longer this series goes. It did in the L.A. series. And against Dallas. But it does not end there…
Florida tweaked their defensive strategy after Game One by playing D-men Dmitri Kulikov and Nate Schmidt 23:40 and 21:51. But they skated just 18:14 and 17:18 in Game One. Meanwhile, Seth Jones, Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling have played 30+ minutes in both contests. Forsling has looked great. Ekblad and Jones as the games wore on…not so much.
If Edmonton's third pairing and fourth line can continue to play well defensively and chip in offensively here and there the way they have, then the law of averages would see to favor Edmonton in a seven-game series. The laws of attrition will start to become factors. The grind sill start to catch up with them.
Now, that assumes that among the top players Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard will out-play Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Gustav Forsling over that same stretch of time.
They are all terrific players on both teams. But I would be more than comfortable betting on the Edmonton guys over seven nights.
Now on Bluesky @kurtleavins.bsky.social. Also, find me on Threads @kleavins, Twitter @KurtLeavins, Instagram at LeavinsOnHockey, and Mastodon at [e-mail]. This article is not AI generated.
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In memory of Bruce McCurdy, 1955-2025.
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