Iran's attack on US base an ‘off ramp' for ceasefire
Iran's strike on a US military base in Qatar might have been an exercise in 'face-saving' before agreeing to a planned ceasefire, analysts and officials have suggested.
US President Donald Trump said Tehran's 'very weak' attack reportedly resulted in no injuries.
A picture of the remnants of one missile lying harmlessly next to a fence in Qatar showed air defences appeared to easily repel Iran's assault on the Al Udeid headquarters.
Mr Trump went as far as to thank Iran afterwards, saying 'most importantly, they've gotten it all out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE'.
'I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.'
The New York Times has cited three Iranian officials as saying they 'symbolically needed to strike back' at the US after its precision strikes on the nation's nuclear program over the weekend.
This would allow 'all sides an exit ramp', the New York Times reported, saying their sources 'described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general'.
But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has since said there was 'NO 'agreement' on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations'.
He wrote on social media, however, that if 'the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards'.
Iran's National Security Council framed the attack as retaliation to 'US aggressive and insolent action against Iran's nuclear sites and facilities' in satte media.
'A few hours ago, the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran struck the US air base in Al-Udeid, Qatar,' the council said in a statement, adding that the number of missiles used 'was the same as the number of bombs that the US had used in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities'.
'This action does not pose any threat to our friendly and brotherly country, Qatar.'
Qatar said it brought down every missile fired from Iran, located 190km away across The Persian Gulf.
Both the US and Qatar have said there was no damage to the base and no injuries.
Following the largely ineffective Iranian operation, oil prices dropped more than six per cent after fears costs could surge if conflcit in the Middle East continued to escalate.
Futures for West Texas Intermediate fell 6.5 per cent to US$69.96 a barrel, while Brent oil futures dropped 6.4 per cent to US$72.07 a barrel, its lowest level in 10 days.
John Kilduff of Again Capital described the Iranian action as 'somewhat measured' and apart from population centres.
'This is a face-saving measure by the Iranians and hopefully the diplomatic off-ramp will be taken,' Mr Kilduff said.
By about 8am Sydney time, just hours after the Iranian attack, Mr Trump was announcing a 'complete and total ceasefire' in the Middle East.
'CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!' he wrote on Truth Social.
'Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.'
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ABC News
37 minutes ago
- ABC News
Breaking down the confusion during the countdown to Trump's Iran-Israel ceasefire
The hours since US President Donald Trump claimed a ceasefire had been brokered between Iran and Israel have been peppered with confusion and contradiction over when attacks might cease. As the 2pm AEST deadline announced by Trump neared, confusion remained over the deal as missiles sped towards Israel from Iran. It came after neither side publicly confirmed they had made an agreement for a pause or cessation of hostilities. Iranian state media is now reporting a ceasefire is in effect, but Israeli officials are yet to publicly confirm a deal. Details on what a ceasefire would look like and how it was brokered are vague but the US president has continued to make posts saying Iran and Israel approached him and that there will be "peace". Here's what to know. It depends who you ask. Shortly after 2pm AEST, Iranian state television was reporting a final barrage of missiles had been sent towards Israel before a ceasefire took effect. Earlier, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran would stop its attacks if Israel stopped its air strikes by 4am, local time, which was about 10:30am AEST. But Araghchi said there was no "agreement" on any ceasefire between Israel and Iran. "The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later," Araghchi added in a post on X. The White House has said that Israel was on board with the ceasefire, provided there were no more Iranian attacks. Israel has not publicly commented, and there have been no reported Israeli attacks on Iran since Araghchi's message was published. Since Mr Trump's announcement, the IDF has reported five waves of missiles were launched toward Israel from Iran, with the last landing shortly after the ceasefire was due to commence, with Israel's emergency services reporting people killed on the ground. According to the White House Officials, Trump communicated directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure a ceasefire — Netanyahu has not commented publicly. Reuters and the Associated Press said US Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff communicated with Iranians through direct and indirect channels. The White House has maintained that the Saturday bombing by the US of Iran helped get Israel to agree to the ceasefire and that the Qatari government helped to broker the deal. It's unclear what role Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's leader, played in the talks. The details are vague. Trump told NBC News the ceasefire would last "forever". "I think the ceasefire is unlimited," he said. "It's going to go forever." In his post to Truth Social announcing the ceasefire, he wrote that it would bring an "official end" to the war after coming into effect in stages. "There will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!" he posted on Truth Social just after 8am AEST. "Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL." He did not elaborate on the mechanics of the proposal or explain why his post suggested a delay between when the ceasefire would take effect in Iran and when it would take effect in Israel. David Kilcullen, a counterinsurgency expert and former official in the Bush administration, said from Israel's perspective, its objectives of the war had not yet been met. "The key missing piece of the puzzle is the allegedly about 400kg of highly enriched uranium that Iran was supposed to be in the process of converting into some kind of a bomb, which is still missing," he said. "No confirmation of where that might be, or indeed, of whether the strikes on the three nuclear facilities that were conducted over the weekend were actually successful in destroying the Iranian nuclear capability. "So, while Israel believes its war aims have not yet been met, I'm going to say — I would be rather sceptical they will be ready to jump into a ceasefire as soon as Donald Trump's truth seems to suggest." Details from Trump's post have not been publicly confirmed or committed to by Israel, Iran, or any other parties. Araghchi said if Israel stopped its strikes by 4:00am Tehran time, Iran had "no intention" of retaliating further. Trump appeared to suggest that Israel and Iran would have some time to complete any missions that are underway, at which point the ceasefire would begin in a staged process. Often, Killcullen said, the lead-up to a ceasefire is when the most intense fighting occurs. "We've seen repeatedly in the past that ceasefires can fall over at the last minute as each side tries to, you know, burnish its position leading into the end of hostilities," Killcullen said. "So I think there's a lot of things to still drop into place before we can say the ceasefire will happen. "If indeed it does, it would be quite a remarkable 24-hour period and even more remarkable 72 hours across the Middle East."


7NEWS
an hour ago
- 7NEWS
Donald Trump says Israel-Iran ceasefire now ‘in effect'
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