Hurricane forecasters will go without a key tool this season
For the past four years, a fleet of drone vessels has purposefully steered into the heart of hurricanes to gather information on a storm's wind speeds, wave heights and, critically, the complex transfer of heat and moisture between the ocean and the air right above it.
These small boats from California-based company Saildrone also film harrowing footage from the ocean surface in the middle of nature's most powerful tempests—videos that are scientifically useful and have also gone viral, giving ordinary people windows into storms.
Importantly, Saildrone vessels were being used by federal scientists to improve forecast and warning accuracy. But they won't be in forecasters' suite of tools this year. The company 'was unable to bid' on a contract for this season, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration spokesperson Keeley Belva told CNN.
The reason why concerns the timing of NOAA's solicitation for this season's contract, according to a NOAA employee speaking on condition of anonymity.
NOAA sent out its request for contract proposals too late, preventing Saildrone not just from bidding, but from pre-deploying its fleet to multiple launching ports on the Atlantic and Gulf Coast in time for hurricane season.
It's another example among many of the ways the Trump administration has fumbled storm preparedness and response efforts as the season begins, leading to fears of less accurate hurricane projections compared to recent years.
The Saildrone news came just as NOAA was roiled by staffing cuts through firings, early retirements and other incentives used to shrink the agency.
Morale has plummeted, especially in the wake of the Trump administration's budget proposal that would eliminate the entire branch of the agency that does oceanic and atmospheric research, which could wipe out hurricane research activities if enacted. Even if it isn't, the Trump administration could use other means to implement such steep cuts.
Belva did not provide details when asked for specifics about the issuance date for the proposals request and the reasons for the delay given the start of hurricane season on June 1. She cited 'ongoing' discussions with Saildrone about potential future deployments with NOAA.
'NOAA continues to explore the use of other uncrewed systems in meeting the agency's data needs within hard-to-access regions of tropical cyclones during the 2025 season,' Belva added. 'The agency is preparing for the use of uncrewed surface vehicle deployments with industry partners for the 2026 season.'
NOAA will still field new technologies this season to gain a better understanding of how hurricanes work and how strong individual storms are, including ultra-high altitude weather balloons, said Joe Cione, the lead meteorologist for emerging technologies at the agency's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.
But all of these new tools are aerial assets, not ocean-based, as the saildrones were.
With saildrones missing in action this hurricane season, meteorologists will lack continuous, direct observations of hurricanes' strongest winds near the surface of the ocean and temperatures of the warm water that fuels the storms.
The agency will still use dropsondes—bundles of sensors that can measure the fierce winds as they fall through the storm after being dropped out of hurricane hunter aircraft.
But they only offer a glimpse into a blip of time at a particular location in a storm, whereas the saildrones can loiter for hours or longer, providing rare observations from the lowest level of the atmosphere, said NOAA oceanographer Gregory Foltz.
Saildrone observations were set to be piped directly into forecast models through newer, faster processes this year with the goal of boosting accuracy, Foltz said. In addition, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center would have been able to use saildrone data to better determine a storm's structure and intensity when issuing an advisory.
The boats had another unexpected benefit: Their dizzying videos helped warn people in harm's way of a storm's ferocity, Foltz said. The videos may play a role in peoples' decisions to evacuate by showing how severe conditions are, he said.
NOAA's aerial technology this season will hopefully bolster the data forecasters have to work with. During the next three weeks, NOAA's hurricane hunters will be conducting clear air tests of some of those new platforms.
Cione, who focuses on identifying promising technologies for weather research and forecasting at the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, touted airborne drones like the Black Swift SØ drone.
It weighs just three pounds and will be deployed into storms from the belly of a NOAA WP-3 hurricane hunter aircraft.
These drones can fly low in a storm for extended periods, recording winds, temperatures and other parameters in the little-sampled lowest 1,500 feet of a hurricane. 'Our situational awareness goes way up,' Cione said, when readings come back from within this layer of air.
Researchers will also be using tiny, light instrument packets known as 'Streamsondes' that can be dropped from an aircraft. These fall more slowly than the standard dropsondes and therefore gather more data.
This year, Cione says, researchers may work to 'swarm' Streamsondes, or drop as many as 50 of them in a matter of minutes, into an area of interest within a storm to pinpoint what a hurricane's winds and air pressure are, for example.
None of these aerial platforms will provide the clear video feeds that people may have become accustomed to from the saildrones the past four years, though, nor can they reliably measure winds and sea surface temperatures for long periods of time.
Ultimately, Foltz said, researchers want to get aerial and ocean-based observations at the same time for a more three-dimensional glimpse into the inner workings of nature's most powerful storms. That includes uncrewed underwater drones collecting data beneath storms, he added.
'We need everything in the atmosphere and the ocean together,' Foltz said. 'That's a big goal of ours.'
That won't happen this year, but assuming NOAA's research division still exists next year, it could get closer to being realized in 2026.
'You don't know how important something is until you take it away,' Foltz said of the saildrones' data contributions.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
39 minutes ago
- Yahoo
ISS issues, technical setbacks delay historic Axiom-4 mission
The Brief Axiom-4's mission remains delayed due to weather, equipment issues, and an ongoing ISS leak. Experts urge patience and caution as global partners assess safety and future station plans. The uncertainty underscores growing challenges in the transition to commercial spaceflight. CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - A series of technical and international setbacks are continuing to delay the highly anticipated Axiom-4 mission, originally expected to mark a major milestone in private spaceflight. What we know The Axiom-4 mission, a significant private spaceflight effort, has faced repeated delays. Initial postponements stemmed from weather conditions and a liquid oxygen leak. Now, a leak in a Russian module aboard the International Space Station (ISS) is adding to the holdup, prompting further safety reviews and coordination among international partners. What we don't know There is no clear timeline for when Axiom-4 will launch, nor a definitive assessment of how long the Russian module repair will take. The potential impact of repeated delays on the crew, mission goals, and future private spaceflight schedules remains uncertain. It's also unclear how soon a viable replacement for the ISS could be operational if early deorbiting plans gain traction. The backstory The ISS has served as a hub for international space collaboration since the early 2000s. Axiom-4 is part of the broader trend of commercializing low-Earth orbit, with companies like Axiom Space aiming to build private stations. The delays highlight both the promise and complexity of transitioning from government-led to commercial space operations. What they're saying Russia's space agency, Roscosmos, is currently addressing a leak on one of its ISS modules, raising concerns about the station's readiness to accommodate the incoming Axiom-4 crew. "This isn't something that they do on a normal, regular basis," said Don Platt, of the Florida Institute of Technology. "They really need to sit back and first make sure that all sides are happy with a plan to move forward, and then it seems to be working and then take a little bit of time after they do a fix to, to see how well that actually works." The delays come as the future of the ISS itself becomes increasingly uncertain. The orbiting laboratory has been in service for nearly 30 years, and some — including SpaceX CEO Elon Musk — re calling for it to be deorbited as early as 2026, four years ahead of NASA's current timeline. But experts caution against acting too quickly. "We've got to have a replacement before we willy nilly decide. It's too old. Let's junk it," Platt added. "You know, it's kind of like, again, with your car, you got to have another car to go to work the next day than before." Companies like Axiom Space are developing next-generation commercial space stations, but those projects are still in the early stages of construction and testing. For now, Axiom-4's launch remains in limbo, as engineers and international partners work to resolve both Earth-bound and orbital obstacles. STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 35 ORLANDO: Download the FOX Local app for breaking news alerts, the latest news headlines Download the FOX 35 Storm Team Weather app for weather alerts & radar Sign up for FOX 35's daily newsletter for the latest morning headlines FOX Local:Stream FOX 35 newscasts, FOX 35 News+, Central Florida Eats on your smart TV The Source This story was written based on information shared by Axiom Space, NASA, and Don Platt, of the Florida Institute of Technology.
Fast Company
an hour ago
- Fast Company
From strain to support: Your AC could help stabilize the power grid
As summer arrives, people are turning on air conditioners in most of the U.S. But if you're like me, you always feel a little guilty about that. Past generations managed without air conditioning—do I really need it? And how bad is it to use all this electricity for cooling in a warming world? If I leave my air conditioner off, I get too hot. But if everyone turns on their air conditioner at the same time, electricity demand spikes, which can force power grid operators to activate some of the most expensive, and dirtiest, power plants. Sometimes those spikes can ask too much of the grid and lead to brownouts or blackouts. Research I recently published with a team of scholars makes me feel a little better, though. We have found that it is possible to coordinate the operation of large numbers of home air-conditioning units, balancing supply and demand on the power grid—and without making people endure high temperatures inside their homes. Studies along these lines, using remote control of air conditioners to support the grid, have for many years explored theoretical possibilities like this. However, few approaches have been demonstrated in practice and never for such a high-value application and at this scale. The system we developed not only demonstrated the ability to balance the grid on timescales of seconds, but also proved it was possible to do so without affecting residents' comfort. The benefits include increasing the reliability of the power grid, which makes it easier for the grid to accept more renewable energy. Our goal is to turn air conditioners from a challenge for the power grid into an asset, supporting a shift away from fossil fuels toward cleaner energy. Adjustable equipment My research focuses on batteries, solar panels, and electric equipment—such as electric vehicles, water heaters, air conditioners, and heat pumps—that can adjust itself to consume different amounts of energy at different times. Originally, the U.S. electric grid was built to transport electricity from large power plants to customers' homes and businesses. And originally, power plants were large, centralized operations that burned coal or natural gas, or harvested energy from nuclear reactions. These plants were typically always available and could adjust how much power they generated in response to customer demand, so the grid would be balanced between power coming in from producers and being used by consumers. But the grid has changed. There are more renewable energy sources from which power isn't always available, like solar panels at night or wind turbines on calm days. And there are the devices and equipment I study. These newer options, called 'distributed energy resources,' generate or store energy near where consumers need it—or adjust how much energy they're using in real time. One aspect of the grid hasn't changed, though: There's not much storage built into the system. So every time you turn on a light, for a moment there's not enough electricity to supply everything that wants it right then: The grid needs a power producer to generate a little more power. And when you turn off a light, there's a little too much: A power producer needs to ramp down. The way power plants know what real-time power adjustments are needed is by closely monitoring the grid frequency. The goal is to provide electricity at a constant frequency—60 hertz—at all times. If more power is needed than is being produced, the frequency drops and a power plant boosts output. If there's too much power being produced, the frequency rises and a power plant slows production a little. These actions, a process called 'frequency regulation,' happen in a matter of seconds to keep the grid balanced. This output flexibility, primarily from power plants, is key to keeping the lights on for everyone. Finding new options I'm interested in how distributed energy resources can improve flexibility in the grid. They can release more energy, or consume less, to respond to the changing supply or demand, and help balance the grid, ensuring the frequency remains near 60 hertz. Some people fear that doing so might be invasive, giving someone outside your home the ability to control your battery or air conditioner. Therefore, we wanted to see if we could help balance the grid with frequency regulation using home air-conditioning units rather than power plants, without affecting how residents use their appliances or how comfortable they are in their homes. From 2019 to 2023, my group at the University of Michigan tried this approach, in collaboration with researchers at Pecan Street Inc., Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the University of California, Berkeley, with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy. We recruited 100 homeowners in Austin to do a real-world test of our system. All the homes had whole-house forced-air cooling systems, which we connected to custom control boards and sensors the owners allowed us to install in their homes. This equipment let us send instructions to the air-conditioning units based on the frequency of the grid. Before I explain how the system worked, I first need to explain how thermostats work. When people set thermostats, they pick a temperature, and the thermostat switches the air-conditioning compressor on and off to maintain the air temperature within a small range around that set point. If the temperature is set at 68 degrees, the thermostat turns the AC on when the temperature is, say, 70, and turns it off when it's cooled down to, say, 66. Every few seconds, our system slightly changed the timing of air-conditioning compressor switching for some of the 100 air conditioners, causing the units' aggregate power consumption to change. In this way, our small group of home air conditioners reacted to grid changes the way a power plant would—using more or less energy to balance the grid and keep the frequency near 60 hertz. Moreover, our system was designed to keep home temperatures within the same small temperature range around the set point. Testing the approach We ran our system in four tests, each lasting one hour. We found two encouraging results. First, the air conditioners were able to provide frequency regulation at least as accurately as a traditional power plant. Therefore, we showed that air conditioners could play a significant role in increasing grid flexibility. But perhaps more importantly—at least in terms of encouraging people to participate in these types of systems—we found that we were able to do so without affecting people's comfort in their homes. We found that home temperatures did not deviate more than 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit from their set point. Homeowners were allowed to override the controls if they got uncomfortable, but most didn't. For most tests, we received zero override requests. In the worst case, we received override requests from 2 of the 100 homes in our test. In practice, this sort of technology could be added to commercially available internet-connected thermostats. In exchange for credits on their energy bills, users could choose to join a service run by the thermostat company, their utility provider, or some other third party.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Proposed budget cuts could ground NASA's momentum amid global space race
The Brief NASA faces historic budget cuts that could roll funding back to 1961 levels. Officials warn the proposal threatens U.S. leadership in space amid rising global competition. Sen. Ted Cruz is pushing for a $10B boost to protect key programs. CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - NASA could see its largest funding cut in more than half a century under a new federal budget proposal, raising alarm among scientists, lawmakers, and space advocates as global competition in space intensifies. What we know NASA is facing a proposed budget cut exceeding 25%, which would reduce funding to levels not seen since 1961—the dawn of American human spaceflight. The Planetary Society and multiple elected officials warn this would be the largest financial setback in the agency's history. The Biden administration's budget plan would significantly scale back NASA's capabilities just as international competitors, particularly China, expand theirs. What we don't know The proposed cuts have not been finalized, and it remains unclear how much of the original proposal will survive the legislative process. Details on which specific NASA programs would see the deepest reductions have not been fully released, leaving advocates and workers in a state of uncertainty. The backstory NASA has long been a symbol of American innovation and leadership in space. Over the past decade, the agency has pursued ambitious goals, including returning to the Moon and building a permanent lunar outpost. The proposed cuts come at a time when the U.S. is trying to maintain dominance in space amid rising geopolitical tensions and rapid advancements by China. Big picture view With both public and private space efforts surging worldwide, critics say now is not the time to throttle back. Florida, home to NASA's Kennedy Space Center and a hub for aerospace jobs, could be particularly affected by cuts. The concern extends beyond jobs—it's about America's ability to lead in space exploration and defense. What they're saying The proposal would slash the space agency's budget by more than 25%, dropping funding to levels not seen since before human spaceflight began. According to the Planetary Society, the proposed budget would roll NASA's funding back to 1961 — the year astronaut Alan Shepard became the first American in space. "This budget is unprecedented in terms of the cuts it proposes and in the radical nature of some of its shifts," said Casey Dreier, Chief of Space Policy at The Planetary Society. "Levels not seen since before human spaceflight existed." Florida officials and space industry advocates are also sounding the alarm, calling the proposal a dramatic step backward. "What is being proposed is a pretty dramatic cut — I think it's up to 26%," said Congressman Mike Haridopolos, who added that the battle for funding in Washington is far from over. "These are just proposals. Nothing has been put into place whatsoever." The proposed cuts come at a time when international pressure is mounting, especially with China's rapid advancements in space exploration and technology. Critics argue that shrinking NASA's budget now would weaken the U.S. position in low-Earth orbit and beyond. "It does put the nation on a 'reliance structure' for technologies and capabilities that are, at best, untested, and at worst, nonexistent," added Dreier, warning that America's leadership in space could be jeopardized. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has introduced a countermeasure in the Senate — a $10 billion funding boost to support key NASA priorities, including the Gateway lunar outpost and operations aboard the International Space Station. Supporters say maintaining strong investment in NASA is essential for national security, innovation and scientific progress. "Space dominance is important because we see the nefarious acts done by the Chinese throughout space," Rep. Haridopolos said. STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 35 ORLANDO: Download the FOX Local app for breaking news alerts, the latest news headlines Download the FOX 35 Storm Team Weather app for weather alerts & radar Sign up for FOX 35's daily newsletter for the latest morning headlines FOX Local:Stream FOX 35 newscasts, FOX 35 News+, Central Florida Eats on your smart TV The Source This story was written based on information shared by the Trump administration, NASA, Casey Dreier, Chief of Space Policy at The Planetary Society and Rep. Mike Haridopolos.
