Diplomacy struggles amid unprecedented conflict escalation
A day after India demolished terror infrastructure at nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, the entire western border became suddenly active for the first time in ages. Swarms of Pakistani drones and missiles flew in—from Bhuj to Jammu and beyond—giving Indian air defence systems and the integrated counter-unmanned aircraft system grid, which includes Russian S-400s, bragging rights on successfully neutralising the attacks. With a fresh wave of enemy drones and missiles flying in at night, blackout sirens rang out across the border, another first in decades. The Indo-Pak face-off was not as intense in the aftermath of the Pulwama terror attack in 2019 and the Balakot strike, when an alarmed international community took to diplomacy to quickly force Pakistan to stand down.
American diplomacy has not been as nimble-footed this time around, with Donald Trump having turned the world order on its head. Some stirrings of its engagement came the day after the Indian strikes, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaking separately with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. In his conversation with Sharif, Rubio urged for concrete steps to end Pakistan's support to terror outfits. Meanwhile, Jaishankar told Rubio that India's response was strictly proportional, adding that any attempt to escalate the situation would be firmly dealt with. If Rubio stepped on the diplomatic gas pedal, Vice President J D Vance appeared to take his foot off by uttering a Trumpian phrase on not getting involved in a war that is 'none of the US's business'. It is this mixed messaging that gives wiggle room to aggressors. Apart from the US, Russia, the UK, and the UN are exploring a role in defusing the crisis. Besides, Saudi Arabia and Iran sent ministers to play peacemaker. While India changed the playbook by not sharing the Pahalgam evidence with Pakistan, it would have handed copies of the probe dossier to the aspirant interlocutors.
Among lenders, the World Bank has already decided not to intervene after India put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. Others like the IMF, too, must turn their fund squeeze on the broke exporter of global terror and stare down its army chief, General Asim Munir. As for PM Sharif, he does not have the requisite political stature. Perhaps his seasoned brother Nawaz has the heft to put the genie back in the bottle.
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