Heatwaves and hot summer 'twice as likely' after sunniest spring on record
We're twice as alikely to have a hot summer after the sunniest spring on record, the Met Office has predicted.
The forecasting body also warned of an increased risk of heatwaves. It comes after the country's sunniest spring on record, with some 630 hours of sunshine clocked up across the country between March 1 and May 27, in what has also been the driest spring for more than a century.
Temperatures soared to 8C above the average for the time of year on Saturday – the last day of meteorological spring – ahead of a potentially hot summer season. The Met Office's three-month outlook predicts that the chance of a hot summer is higher than normal, bringing an increased risk of heatwaves and heat-related impacts.
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The outlook shows it is 2.3 times more likely than normal that the UK will be hot over meteorological summer, which begins on June 1 and ends August 31. The average temperatures across the UK over those months range from 10-17C, with the south east of England experiencing the higher averages of 16-17C.
The Met Office said: "While the current three-month outlook shows an increased chance of a hot summer, the temperature signals for this summer are similar to those for recent years and consistent with our warming climate. The increased chance of hotter than average temperatures is not a guarantee of prolonged hot weather or heatwaves, but it does mean that heatwave conditions could be reached at times.
"However, it's important to bear in mind that an increased chance of hot conditions could also reflect a mix of hot and cool days, warm nights, or less extreme levels of warmth rather than continual heatwave conditions specifically."
The summers of 2018 and 2021-2023 were also predicted to be hot, with data showing it has been a decade since the last time a summer was predicted to be cool, in 2015. The latest outlook also shows the levels of rainfall and wind speed for the next three months will likely be near average.
The three-month long-range forecast does not identify weather for a specific day or week but gives an indication of possible temperature, rainfall and wind speed over the period as a whole.
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