Windbag: Why Wellington's vibe shift is coming in 2026
Things are about to change in the capital, and it has nothing to do with the mayoral race.
Windbag is The Spinoff's Wellington issues column, written by Wellington editor Joel MacManus. Subscribe to the Windbag newsletter to receive columns early.
Wellington spends an inordinate amount of time naval-gazing about vibes or the perceived lack thereof. Vibes are ill-defined, intangible, immeasurable but ever-present, and any effort to change them is more art than science.
If there is one moment that triggered the capital's vibecession, it would be the 2013 Seddon earthquake. Then, the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, Covid-19, public sector layoffs and a general economic downturn. It's been a long, slow rolling maul of decline.
When understanding the city's vibes, we shouldn't overthink it. Media and politicians can get too in-the-weeds, thinking too much about budgets and rates and consultations, but those things aren't what shape vibes. Vibes are just another way of describing word-of-mouth. When people have conversations about their city, either with their fellow residents or with tourists, what do they talk about?
At a basic level, cities are experiential. They're a dense collection of stuff to do, places to go, things to see, and people to meet. Cities have good vibes when people are talking about this great new place they tried that you simply must check out (restaurants, gigs, new developments, tourist attractions, activities). They develop bad vibes when there is a dearth of exciting new stuff, and when the existing stuff is declining.
That's what's happened in Wellington for the past decade. Many major buildings and activity centres have closed, and there have been few new developments to counterweight the loss.
However, that's about to change. I'm predicting a significant vibe shift as early as next year (and no, it'll have nothing to do with the new mayor). Several major projects are due to be completed in 2026 (provided construction schedules don't change) that will give locals and visitors something to be excited about.
Te Matapihi Central Library: due to open March 2026
Wellington's Central Library closed in March 2019 after an engineers' report raised concerns about earthquake safety. The council was not legally obliged to close the building, but then mayor Justin Lester said he felt 'morally obliged'.
Following the closure, there was an extended fight over whether it was better to demolish the building and rebuild something new or to try to repair and upgrade the existing building. In the midst of the debate, Heritage New Zealand Pouhere Taonga listed it as a category 1 heritage building despite it being less than 30 years old. 'Save our library' successfully pushed for the council to retrofit the building with base isolators and other earthquake safety features for $189 million.
Whether it was the right choice or not, there's no point relitigating the decisions. The money is spent, and the rebuild is nearly complete. When the library reopens in March next year, it'll be a moment of celebration. Losing the 'living room of the city' was a huge vibe killer, and getting a new, better version back will give people something worth talking about.
Te Whare Whakarauika Wellington Town Hall: due to open in July 2026
Another long and complex collision of earthquake damage and heritage protections, the Town Hall closed in 2013 after the Seddon earthquake. Repairs were initially budgeted at $30 million but ballooned out as high as $330m due to a messy mixture of scope creep and sunk-cost fallacy. (It should be noted that part of the increased cost was to create custom spaces for the new National Music Centre.)
However, like the library, what's done is done. The money has already been spent. The good news is that progress is ahead of schedule. The latest council update moved the expected opening forward by eight months to July 2026.
The Town Hall is an important and impressive public building that can be a point of civic pride. Importantly, it will add another much-needed performance venue to the city, meaning Wellington can host events, providing more flow-on commerce for nearby businesses.
Te Ngākau Civic Precinct: due to open in March 2026
The entire Civic Square plaza is currently closed for a makeover. The timing is ideal; the whole place is a dead zone due to the Central Library and Town Hall construction, and City Gallery has temporarily moved to the National Library.
Civic Square will open in March 2026 alongside the library, with new paving and landscaping. It's a vital public space for gathering, hanging out or eating lunch, so having a new and refreshed area to experience will be something for people to talk about.
Te Ara Tupua: due to open in April 2026
After flooding in 2013 and 2015, it became clear that Wellington needed a seawall to protect the railway line and highway between the city and the Hutt. The great bonus when you build a seawall is that you can put a shared cycling and walking path on top and add a great public amenity for minimal additional cost.
However, NZTA Waka Kotahi got cheeky with the numbers and funded the entire $348.7 million project through its cycling budget, even though it was primarily intended to protect the road and rail. This left little money for other cycling projects nationwide.
Despite the dodgy funding, the shared walking and cycling path will be truly remarkable. Named Te Ara Tupua and designed with mana whenua, the project will include five artificial gravel beaches providing access to the water for fishing and diving, and six new gathering spaces with planting, seating and bike stands. A rail overbridge is designed to honour Te Wharepouri, a significant rangatira who lived in the area.
The western coast of Wellington Harbour offers stunning views, but until now, they've only been accessible out of the window of a moving vehicle. Te Ara Tupua opens that area to people. For commuters, especially on e-bikes, the safe and scenic route will be a vast improvement over the current option, a terrifying ride along the shoulder of a busy highway.
For recreational bikers, it's even more exciting. Te Ara Tupua will link up the Great Harbour Way, meaning there will be a protected, paved, coastal cycleway from Miramar to Days Bay (and eventually from Pencarrow to Owhiro Bay, a distance of 70km). It will become a must-do activity and tourist attraction. East by West ferries are already planning for a surge in traffic from people crossing to Days Bay with their bikes and riding back to the city (or vice versa).
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Ardern is astonished when a social media poster at the time of the Whakaari White island disaster claimed she went to Whakatāne just so she could be photographed hugging people. And that makes her even more determined. 'The post bothered me more than I wanted to admit,' she writes, and then tells of meeting a female ambulance officer who'd helped on the day, the woman hugging her, with the cameras clicking. 'I knew this would only feed my critics, the ones who were cynical about empathy, who thought that everything was somehow a show. That's fine, I thought as I hugged her tight in return. I would rather be criticised than stop being human.' She outlines in the final brief chapters how that criticism, the cynicism, the always-on-alert responsibility of her job, helped convince her to resign. There's the story of a mystery woman sidling up to her at an airport bathroom, pressing in and hissing 'Thank you for ruining the country'. 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That's a fail, maybe resulting from an American editor scrawling 'who, what, who cares?' in the margins and deleting. There's nothing on The Wedding, and just a mention of moving to Boston, with nothing of the new life. More importantly, also absent are all the issues of political (mis)management beyond Covid – Three Waters, ministerial conduct, law and order failures, stubborn child poverty and emergency housing – that rose up inexorably in Ardern's second term. Remember, Labour burned more political capital in that term – from an outright MMP majority to 27 percent and defeat – than probably any government other than the Fourth Labour Government of 1987-90. But A Different Kind of Power doesn't dwell on the negative or even acknowledge it. Right at the end, Ardern summarises her role-model message to any young woman doubting her right to be in a position or place. Embrace your sensitivity and empathy. 'In fact, all of the traits that you believe are your flaws will come to be your strengths.' That might well be true for Ardern, or for an individual. It's not so for a government. A Different Kind of Power: A Memoir by Jacinda Ardern (Penguin, $59.99) is available in bookstores nationwide. ReadingRoom has devoted all week to coverage of the book. Monday: experts in the book trade predict it will fly off the shelves. Tuesday: a review by Steve Braunias. Wednesday: a review by Janet Wilson.
