Why Israel Alone Can't Stop Iran Getting Nuclear Weapons Without US

Miami Herald

2 days ago

Israel's "Operation Rising Lion" has delivered the heaviest blow yet to Iran's nuclear ambitions, with air strikes killing the Islamic Republic's top military command and nuclear scientists as well as hitting its main uranium enrichment plant in Natanz.
But completely halting Iran's nuclear program is likely beyond the means of the region's only nuclear weapons power without the open support of its U.S. ally - and possibly even with it, security experts believe.
"Israel by itself cannot completely halt the program. Only toppling the regime can do that. Anything less achieves at most a delay for X number of years. X being dependent on the level of success of the strikes," Eado Hecht, of the BESA Center for Security Studies in Israel, told Newsweek.
"That is the best we can hope for in the current situation: if Iran provokes the USA into attacking it or the weakening of the regime sets off a revolution. Otherwise in X years time we will have to do it again," he said.
Iran vowed swift retaliation for attacks that eliminated its top military leadership and several key nuclear scientists as well as hitting Natanz. It sent an initial wave of drones that is unlikely to be the end of its reprisals.
Iran has also emphasized that any attack will only make it more determined to push ahead with its nuclear program. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that after the elimination of its officers and scientists "their successors and colleagues will carry on with their duties without delay".
Iran's nuclear program - which it says has only civilian intent despite the accusations of the United States and Western countries - is distributed across a country a sixth the size of the United States. It is also heavily fortified behind layers of rock and concrete. At Natanz, advanced centrifuge cascades are housed deep inside underground caverns in a site that was originally built in secret in 2002 to one day house up to 50,000 centrifuges.
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) confirmed Friday that damage had been done to the Natanz nuclear facility, according to Mehr News Agency.
"US military support to Israel, if that materializes, will strengthen the impact of any operation to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Israeli officials have in the past said they are prepared to go it alone - but without joint force projection, the outcome may be less than the full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program," Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Security at the Royal United Services Institute think tank (RUSI), told Newsweek.
While the United States distanced itself from the Israeli strikes, they were substantially carried out with American equipment. Trump had been aware that an attack was pending, according to Fox commentator Brett Baier. In fact, he had flagged the danger to Iran in recent days as he has said he would prefer diplomacy. On Friday, Trump posted "Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left" on Truth Social.
Should the United States get involved in a further escalation with Iran, it has build up a heavy array of airpower at the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. It has aircraft carriers in the region on standby.
But while Israel might need U.S. power to comprehensively destroy Iran's nuclear program, it has a record of successful unilateral attacks against nuclear installations in the past: hitting Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981 and Syria's nuclear reactor program in 2007. The substantial changes in both countries since that time have put them both out of contention as potential nuclear weapons powers.
Israel is presumed to have nuclear weapons itself but has a policy of never confirm or denying this.
Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, disagrees that Israeli cannot destroy Iran's nuclear program, noting the way it had killed Iranian-backed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a bunker deep under Beirut and that had it appeared to have damaged hardened installations this time around.
But destroying the program was the wrong way to look at it given that the Iranians had always said they would restart it anyway, he said.
"This is Western thinking to solve problems," the former Israeli paratrooper told Newsweek. "You know, you mow the grass, you debilitate capabilities and gain time. This is the Israeli strategy for everything... We delayed it for 15 years, more than 15 years again, stopping is not the right word. We delay until the Messiah comes."
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