India-Pakistan conflict: Nervous calm as Pakistan fears war within days

Straits Times

08-05-2025

There is a deceptive calm in Pakistan's main cities. Even as 25 Indian drones penetrated deep into Pakistan's airspace in the early morning of May 8 – reaching as far as the country's economic capital, Karachi – daily life in major urban centres remained largely unaffected.
Markets bustled, schools and universities conducted exams as scheduled, and streets bore no signs of panic.
Yet, in the rural eastern stretches bordering India, the mood was starkly different: it was one of dread, anxiety, and preparation for the worst.
Despite the seeming calm in much of the country, experts insist the situation remains dire and Pakistan is poised on a knife-edge.
'This is a very serious situation, and the international community needs to recognise it,' warned Dr Nausheen Wasi, an international relations expert. 'One-fifth of Pakistan's population is at risk. On top of that, with the ongoing climate crisis and severe energy shortages, the situation could become catastrophic.'
Dr Wasi, an assistant professor at the state-run Karachi University, emphasised the unpredictability of the crisis: 'We can see a full-fledged conventional war in coming days, but given the uncertainty, even a nuclear scenario can't be ruled out entirely.'
She added: 'The norms of global politics are being defied. Under pressure from his own party, India's leadership wants to resolve the Kashmir issue militarily.'
The drone incursions mark the latest flare-up in what is fast becoming one of the most serious escalations between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan in recent years.
The strikes reportedly targeted militant hideouts, including a residential area linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Maulana Masood Azhar.
The group is blamed by India for a recent deadly attack in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, which left 27 tourists dead.
India had on May 7 launched a series of air strikes on sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, killing at least 31 people, two weeks after that attack.
Despite the gravity of the conflict, large cities like Lahore and Karachi have shown a remarkable air of indifference.
'We heard a boom this morning and later came to know that a drone had been shot down,' said Mr Nazeer Ahmed, a 30-year-old resident of Karachi's Malir district.
'But we are not afraid. Our armed forces will take good care of Indian attacks.'
Shops, offices and educational institutions remained open across Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad and other metropolitan areas. An official from the Sindh Education Ministry confirmed that public and private universities continued with their scheduled exam ination s.
'Two private universities have advised students to remain cautious, but no emergency drills have been carried out yet,' the official added.
In Lahore, where security agencies ordered the evacuation in Johar Town of a residential block, reportedly connected to JeM's Azhar, most of the city continued to function normally.
'India cannot attack us because of our well-prepared army,' a local taxi driver confidently told a passenger.
'Public sentiment has become extremely resilient,' said Dr Wasi . 'People aren't reacting with fear. It feels like business as usual – there's no panic visible on the streets.'
The disconnect between public calm and military escalation underscores a complex reality.
For decades, Pakistanis have lived under the shadow of conflict with India, and many have learnt to compartmentalise threats.
However, a different reality looms along the border regions. In the desert town of Chor, adjacent to India's Rajasthan, 70-year-old Sharda Kohli recalled the trauma of previous wars.
'We are afraid. We suffered during the 1971 and 1965 wars when Indian forces crossed into our territory,' she said. 'This time, we are storing food and other essentials. It feels like full-fledged war is coming, and no one knows what happens in that situation.'
Mr Rajesh Kumar, 45, a school teacher from Umarkot, echoed the sentiment. 'The fear is real here. We live too close to the border to ignore this. The towns are tense.'
While Islamabad has called for restraint, warning India against further escalation, its response has been forthright.
The Pakistan military claimed it shot down five Indian fighter jets and destroyed an Indian brigade headquarters and check posts along the Line of Control.
While Pakistan's military posture has so far been restrained, Dr Wasi warned that 'there seems to be no sign of de-escalation'.
And already, business leaders are warning that economic costs are taking root. In Karachi, a major importer revealed that trade disruptions are beginning to take a toll.
'Both countries have blocked containers. Freight costs have jumped from US$300 (S$390) to US$500 per container, making imports unviable,' he said, requesting anonymity.
Adding to the mix is the government's attempt to rally national sentiment. In Sindh's capital, Karachi, the provincial leadership led a rally condemning Indian aggression. Though it drew the participation of local political figures and government ministers, the public turnout was modest.
As the global community watches closely, what happens next hinges not just on military movements, but also on diplomacy, restraint and the political will to pull back from the brink, say analysts.
'It is very unfortunate that things have reached a point where war seems inevitable,' said Dr Tauseef Ahmed Khan, a prominent author and columnist. 'The situation requires immediate diplomatic intervention by the international community and global powers to halt the escalation,' he added.
Noting that ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have already pushed the world to the brink of uncertainty, Dr Wasi warned: 'Another impending conflict could further destabilise the global situation.'
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