Iraq's democratic malaise: Challenges mount ahead of 2025 Elections

Shafaq News

16-04-2025

Shafaq News/ Iraq has officially scheduled its next parliamentary elections for November 11, 2025. But behind the set date looms a gathering storm, political withdrawals, economic fragility, legislative retrenchment, and public disillusionment, all raising fears that the vote could deepen rather than resolve the country's democratic malaise.
A Missing Voice
Perhaps the most destabilizing development ahead of Iraq's 2025 elections is the withdrawal of its largest popular force, the Patriotic Shiite Movement (formerly the Sadrist Movement) led by the prominent cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr. Once a dominant player, the group has vanished from the current electoral scene, leaving behind a vacuum no other bloc seems capable of filling.
In the 2021 elections, the movement captured 73 seats—up from 54 in 2018—galvanizing support in key provinces like Baghdad, Dhi Qar, and Maysan. It channeled the fervor of the October uprising into electoral clout, injecting urgency and unpredictability into Iraq's political rhythm.
Muqtada al-Sadr left little ambiguity about the reasons behind the boycott, stating, 'Let it be known to all: as long as corruption persists, I will not take part in any crippled electoral process that serves only sectarian and partisan interests.'
What marked 2021 as a grassroots-driven turning point may render 2025 a regression. The shift from parliamentary leadership to street influence is stark. A senior coordinator from the movement, requesting anonymity, explained, 'There is no intention to return under the current political framework, which betrayed the October martyrs and cemented sectarian and corrupt quotas.'
Former parliamentarian Hakim al-Zamili reinforced that view, warning that any election held without those who once catalyzed street-led change would be 'meaningless.'
The ramifications extend beyond electoral arithmetic. The movement's withdrawal has turned a dynamic contest into a lopsided race, raising serious concerns about legitimacy and public engagement.
Mohammad Qutaiba, Secretary-General of the al-Bawasel Party and a current member of parliament, pointed to the deepening sense of detachment among Iraqis, stating, 'The greatest challenge to holding successful elections is the expected large-scale voter apathy, especially if the Patriotic Shiite Movement continues its boycott.'
Law Under Siege
Iraq's return to a closed-list electoral system has ignited a political storm, stirring accusations that the revised framework is designed to sideline independents and tighten the grip of established parties. Applied across 83 constituencies, the system has become a flashpoint for activists, lawmakers, and legal experts who view it as a calculated retreat from hard-won democratic reforms.
Legal expert Ali al-Tamimi denounced the law as unconstitutional, warning that challenges in court could disrupt or even derail the electoral process. His concerns tap into a broader unease over what many see as a deliberate reshaping of the political playing field in favor of entrenched actors.
The shift is especially jarring when set against the backdrop of the 2021 elections. That vote introduced an open-list, single non-transferable vote system that divided the country into smaller districts, a model born from the October 2019 protests. Over 70 independents, many tied to the protest movement, entered parliament.
That momentum now seems to be slipping away. The re-imposed closed-list structure gives party elites the power to determine candidate order while concealing individual names, effectively blocking fresh voices from entering the race. The change has raised deep concerns among those who fought for more transparency and inclusion.
Civil society activist Inas Jabbar described the law as a targeted strike against marginalized groups. 'The law intentionally eliminates the role of independents, women, and youth, creating a monopoly for major parties who already control resources and media,' she observed. Her words mirror a growing sentiment across civic spaces, where anxiety about democratic backsliding has resurfaced.
Statistical evidence reinforces that fear. A 2024 study by the Iraqi Electoral Rights Observatory found that more than 78% of projected winners under the current system hail from parties established before 2010. For critics, this figure is more than a data point, it is proof of an entrenched elite rewriting the rules to their advantage.
The frustration has spilled into town halls and forums, where reform advocates are raising their voices once again. Many believe the law is being manipulated to shut out challengers and safeguard the status quo. 'We're watching lawmakers hijack the law to eliminate rivals and lock the gates of change,' Jabbar charged, capturing the growing disillusionment among Iraq's younger political forces.
Despite the rising tensions, calls to uphold the November election timeline have come from across all political spectrum. Diaa al-Hindi, a member of parliament from the Imtidad Movement, framed the scheduled vote as a vital pillar of constitutional legitimacy and democratic continuity. He argued that any effort to question or delay the elections would only deepen public skepticism.
'The greatest challenge to the elections is the attempt by some groups to undermine public confidence by questioning the legitimacy of the scheduled date or pushing for legal changes that serve narrow interests,' he warned.
Al-Hindi also drew attention to the broader conditions surrounding the vote. 'Transparency, limits on political financing, and fair electoral conditions must be guaranteed,' he emphasized, urging authorities to create a level playing field for all candidates.
Independent lawmaker Jawad al-Yassari offered a technical critique of the system's design, zeroing in on the use of the Sainte-Laguë method within single-province electoral districts. In his view, the arrangement tilts the scales in favor of dominant parties, leaving independents and emerging coalitions at a disadvantage. 'Making each province a single electoral district under the Sainte-Laguë method restricts opportunities for new or unaffiliated lists unless they join with established entities,' he explained.
Losing Faith
Beneath shifting electoral laws and party strategies lies Iraq's deeper affliction; a haemorrhage of public trust.
Street protests have become a recurring expression of public frustration. While each wave of demonstrations may be triggered by specific events—such as the recent strikes by educators in Dhi Qar—the underlying causes are remarkably consistent and deeply rooted in structural failures that have persisted since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime.
Corruption remains a central grievance. Despite billions of dollars in oil revenues, the public sector is riddled with inefficiency and a lack of transparency, breeding a culture of impunity. Iraqis routinely voice anger at the inability of successive governments to prosecute high-level corruption, which they believe siphons resources away from vital services and development.
Unemployment, particularly among the country's youth, continues to fuel discontent. With over 60% of Iraq's population under the age of 25, many young people find themselves without meaningful job opportunities. The paradox of joblessness in an oil-rich nation has eroded trust in the state's capacity to deliver even the most basic economic rights.
Poor public services further exacerbate the sense of abandonment. In provinces like Basra and Dhi Qar, where the state's presence is often most visible in the form of neglect, citizens contend with chronic electricity outages, contaminated water, and a crumbling healthcare system.
The political system itself is increasingly seen as a barrier to progress. Built on a sectarian quota model (muhasasa), the system encourages patronage over merit and division over unity. Many Iraqis, especially among the younger generations, view the current political elite as disconnected from the struggles of ordinary citizens and more invested in maintaining their own power than in reform.
Foreign influence compounds the frustration. Demonstrators have often denounced both American and Iranian involvement in domestic affairs, asserting Iraq's right to political sovereignty. This sentiment was especially pronounced during the 2019 protests when slogans like 'We want a homeland' became rallying cries for national dignity and independence.
In addition, the erosion of human rights and the violent suppression of dissent have only deepened public anger. The killings and disappearances of activists, especially since the October 2019 uprising, remain largely unaddressed. For many, justice remains elusive, further underscoring the disconnect between the state's rhetoric and the lived reality of its citizens.
'I'm 28 and have never seen an election where my voice mattered,' explained Sara, a schoolteacher protesting in Dhi Qar. 'Why should I vote when the same people keep returning with new promises and old failures?'
This growing disillusionment is mirrored in the numbers. Voter turnout has plunged, from over 60% in 2010 to just under 44% in 2021. That last figure, though low, reflected cautious optimism sparked by protest-driven reforms. In 2025, participation may sink even further, as many Iraqis believe those reforms have already been dismantled.
A late 2024 survey by the Al-Bayan Center found that only 31% of eligible voters plan to participate in the upcoming elections. Over 60% of respondents pointed to corruption and political stagnation as their primary reasons for disengagement.
Social researcher Noor al-Saffar reflects on the change in tone between the last election and the present moment. In 2021, she observed cautious optimism among the public, a belief that reform could still be achieved incrementally. Now, in 2025, what she sees is hardened resignation. People increasingly regard elections as rituals that do not translate into reform.
However, former MP Kamel Nawwaf al-Ghurairi, now affiliated with the Mubadara Bloc, believes dominant factions may be misreading the mood of the electorate. He warns that some political leaders are forgetting a crucial fact—their legitimacy is still shaped by how people perceive them. According to him, both Sunni and Shiite figures who have lost popular support should brace for surprising results at the polls.
Beyond public sentiment, Political analyst Ali al-Habib highlights mounting concerns over the integrity of the electoral process itself. Technical issues such as inaccurate voter rolls, vulnerabilities in electronic voting systems, and the recurrence of procedural violations from previous cycles remain unaddressed. These flaws, he explains, continue to cast a long shadow over the credibility of upcoming elections.
Budget on the Brink
Iraq's path to elections is facing another deepening threat, financial instability. With the economy tightly bound to the fate of global oil markets, a slide in prices and a disruption in Kurdish oil deliveries are placing growing pressure on the federal budget.
The 2023–2025 budget, calculated on a benchmark of $70 per barrel, is showing signs of stress as global crude hovers below $75. The situation is further complicated by a significant shortfall in oil deliveries from the Kurdistan Region. Official figures confirm that in 2024, only 58% of the Region's committed oil was transferred into the federal system.
The implications stretch far beyond economic balance sheets. A fragile budget risks undermining the very infrastructure required to hold elections. Without stable funding, preparations for voter registration, ballot printing, and security coordination may falter.
In 2021, Iraq enjoyed a different reality. A post-crash surge in oil prices helped restore revenues, pushed foreign reserves above $60 billion, and allowed the electoral process to unfold relatively smoothly. Today, that cushion has worn thin. A heavily burdened public sector, combined with narrowing fiscal margins, has raised the stakes. Over 4 million state employees and pensioners rely on uninterrupted monthly payments, an obligation that consumes a vast portion of the national budget.
Warnings are growing louder. Energy analyst Dr. Maher al-Jubouri cautioned that 'any dip below $65 per barrel will render major government obligations, including election logistics, unsustainable without new borrowing or cuts.'
The strain is already disrupting election planning. The Federal Electoral Commission is working with a 12% budget shortfall, placing critical operations at risk. Staffing, logistical support, and the procurement of essential technologies now hang in the balance, challenges that were largely absent during the 2021 cycle.
Currency volatility and international banking restrictions have further complicated matters, slowing the transfer of crucial funds to regional offices tasked with implementing the next phase of the electoral timeline.
A senior official from the Finance Ministry warned that unless emergency allocations are secured by mid-2025, 'voter registration expansion, ballot printing, and security deployment could face debilitating setbacks.'