India's iron ore imports to trend higher, but it's no China: Russell
LAUNCESTON, Australia, June 3 (Reuters) - The rise of India's steel sector is touted as a boost for iron ore miners seeking to find new markets as China's output eases, but the reality is likely to fall short of the hype.
India's steel-making capacity is currently about 200 million metric tons per annum and the South Asian nation has ambitious plans to reach 300 million by 2030.
Working on the assumption that these plans come close to being realised, how does that alter the dynamics in the global seaborne iron ore market?
In order to get to an answer, it's important to work out how much of the demand for iron ore from the new steel mills can be met by India's own mines.
India is the fourth-largest iron ore miner and its production hit a record 289 million tons in the fiscal year from April 2024 to March 2025, according to preliminary government data.
This was up from the previous fiscal year's 277 million tons, but is also well short of what would be required to supply a 300 million tons per annum steel-making sector.
Depending on the grade of iron ore used, it takes about 1.6 tons to make one ton of steel using the blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace process, the most common method in both India and top steel producer China.
Is it possible that India's domestic iron ore output could rise to around 460 million tons by 2030, and if it could, is it also possible that the infrastructure required to transport ore to steel mills can be put in place?
Vedanta Group Chairman Anil Agarwal told the Business Standard last month that India has the potential to overtake China and Brazil to become the second-largest iron ore miner after Australia.
Vedanta owns Sesa Goa Iron Ore, one of India's major producers, and while Agarwal is correct in pointing to India's large reserves, it's unlikely that such a large increase in iron ore output in a relatively short period of time is possible.
The Indian Steel Association expects that there will be a shortage of iron ore of more than 100 million tons in coming years, meaning imports will have to increase.
India is currently a net exporter of iron ore, usually shipping lower-grade ores to China while importing higher-grade material to blend with domestic ore.
India's exports for the first five months of 2025 were 13.67 million tons, of which 11.11 million went to China, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
Exports have been trending lower as more ore is used by domestic steel plants, with the monthly average of 2.73 million tons for the first five months of 2025 down from the average of 3.13 million for 2024 and 3.70 million for 2023.
Imports have also been trending higher, with arrivals of 4.57 million tons in the first five months of 2025, according to Kpler.
This puts India on track to more than double imports this year from the 6.72 million tons in 2024 and the 6.67 million in 2023.
But even if imports do rise to around 10 million tons this year, it's a long way to get to 100 million tons by 2030.
Much will depend on how quickly India builds up steel capacity and how domestic iron ore miners respond.
India has about 20 million tons of steel capacity currently under construction and a further 155 million planned, according to data compiled by the Global Energy Monitor.
The under-construction plants will likely boost demand for iron ore imports, but the volumes are likely to be modest, at least for this year and next.
What is likely is a continuation of current trends, with India's exports of low-grade iron ore trending lower and its imports of higher-grade ore moving higher over time.
The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Sky News
2 hours ago
- Sky News
The big problem facing UK as deadline to finalise US trade deal looms
When push comes to shove, the question of whether British industry faces crippling tariffs on exports to the US or enjoys a unique opportunity to grow may come back to three seemingly random words: "melted and poured". To see why, let's begin by recapping where we are at present in the soap opera of US trade policy. Donald Trump has just doubled the extra tariffs charged on imports of steel and aluminium into the US from 25% to 50%. In essence, this would turn a painfully high tariff into something closer to an insurmountable economic wall (remember during the Cold War, the Iron Curtain equated to an effective tariff rate of just under 50%). Anyway, the good news for UK steel producers is that they have been spared the 50% rate and will, for the time being, only have to pay the 25% rate. But there is a sting in the tail: that stay of execution will only last until 9 July - on the basis of President Trump's most recent pronouncements. 1:00 For anyone following these events from the corner of their eyes, this might all sound a little odd. After all, didn't Sir Keir Starmer announce only a few weeks ago that British steel and aluminium makers would be able to enjoy not 25% but 0% tariffs with America, thanks to his bold new trade agreement with the US? Well, yes. But the prime minister wasn't being entirely clear about what that meant in practice. Because the reality is that every trade agreement works more or less as follows: politicians negotiate a "heads of terms" agreement - a vague set of principles and red lines. There then follows a period of horse-trading and negotiation to nail down the actual details and turn it into a black and white piece of law. In this case, when the PM and president made their big announcement 28 days ago, they had only agreed on the "heads of terms". The small print was yet to be completed. Right now, we are still in the horse-trading phase. Negotiators from the UK and the US are meeting routinely to try and nail down the small print. And that process is taking longer than many had expected. To see why, it's worth drilling a little bit into the details. The trade deal committed to allowing some cars to pass into the US at a 10% rate and to protecting some pharmaceutical trade, as well as allowing some steel and aluminium into the US at a zero tariff rate. When it comes to cars, there are some nuances about which kind of cars the deal covers. Something similar goes for pharmaceuticals. Things get even knottier when you drill into the detail on steel. 2:13 You see, one of the things the White House is nervous about is the prospect that Britain might become a kind of assembly point for steel from other countries around the world - that you could just ship some steel to Britain, get it pressed or rolled or worked over and then sent across to the US with those 0% tariffs. So the US negotiators are insisting that only steel that is "melted and poured" in the UK (in other words, smelted in a furnace) is covered by the trade deal. That's fine for some producers but not for others. One of Britain's biggest steel exporters is Tata Steel, which makes a lot of steel that gets turned into tin cans you find on American supermarket shelves (not to mention piping used by the oil trade). Up until recently, that steel was indeed "melted and poured" from the blast furnaces at Port Talbot. But Tata shut down those blast furnaces last year, intending to replace them with cleaner electric arc furnaces. And in the intervening period, it's importing raw steel instead from the Netherlands and India and then running it through its mills. Or consider the situation at British Steel. There in Scunthorpe they are melting and pouring the steel from iron made in their blast furnaces - but now ponder this. While the company has been semi-nationalised by the government, it is still technically a Chinese business, owned by Jingye. In other words, its steel might technically count as benefiting China - which is something the White House is even more sensitive about. 👉 Tap here to follow Politics at Jack and Anne's wherever you get your podcasts 👈 You see how this is all suddenly becoming a bit more complicated than it might at first have looked? This helps to explain why the negotiations are taking longer than expected. But this brings us to the big problem. The White House has indicated that Britain will only be spared that 50% tariff rate provided the trade deal is finalised by 9 July. That gives the negotiators another month and a bit. That might sound like a lot, but now consider that that would be one of the fastest announcement-to-completion rates ever achieved in any trade negotiations in modern history. There's no guarantee Britain will actually get this deal done in time for that deadline - though insiders tell me they think they could be able to finalise it in a piecemeal fashion: the cars one week, steel another, pharmaceuticals another. Either way, the heat is on. Just when you thought Britain was in the safe zone, it stands on the edge of jeopardy all over again.
Reuters
4 hours ago
- Reuters
Peru's Nazca Lines face mining threat after protected area slashed
LIMA, June 4 (Reuters) - Peru's government has significantly reduced the protected area around its famed Nazca Lines, a move critics and archaeologists fear could leave the ancient geoglyphs vulnerable to hundreds of nearby informal mining operations. Peru's Culture Ministry last week slashed the protected zone from 5,600 to 3,200 square kilometers, attributing the move to topographical and archaeological studies that more precisely demarcated areas with "real patrimonial value." The Nazca Lines, located about 400 km (250 miles) south of Lima, are over 800 giant desert etchings of animals, plants and geometric figures created more than 1,500 years ago. UNESCO declared them a World Heritage site in According to data from the Energy and Mines ministry, 362 small-scale gold miners operate in the Nazca district as part of a program to regularize their status. Authorities have previously conducted operations against illegal mining in the area. "The main threats to the Nazca Lines are informal mining operations in the surroundings and even within the protected area," Pieter Van Dalen, head of Peru's archaeologists' association, told Reuters. He called the reduction "very regrettable," challenging the justification that the original area was too large to control. With gold prices near record highs, police and industry sources allege that the government program to regularize small-scale mining, known as REINFO, is rife with irregularities and is often exploited by illegal miners, sometimes in collusion with criminal gangs. The REINFO program is set to expire at the end of this year, with Congress and the administration scrambling to work on a replacement scheme which closes operating loopholes. Small-scale miners had previously protested ahead of an earlier deadline, arguing they would have little time to regularize their activities. The government estimates illegal mining in Peru generates more than $3 billion annually, surpassing drug trafficking revenue. Energy and Mines Minister Jorge Montero acknowledged on Tuesday that small-scale miners operate in Nazca. He said the government is "evaluating how this (reduction) impacts the status of small-scale and artisanal mining working in the zone that was formerly part of Nazca's (protected area) and now is not." Peru's gold exports amounted to $15.5 billion in 2024, up from $11 billion the prior year. Around 40% of Peru's gold exports are estimated to come from illegal sources, according to industry data and Peru's financial regulator.
BBC News
4 hours ago
- BBC News
BBC Learning English - Learning English from the News / Kumbh Mela: 400 million to attend world's largest festival
(Photo by Ritesh Shukla/ Getty Images) ____________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________ The story The Kumbh Mela festival, the largest religious gathering in the world, has begun in the northern Indian city of Prayagraj. 400 million people are expected to attend throughout the 45-day period, authorities say. The festival can be seen from space. The Hindu festival is held once every 12 years, but this year it's particularly significant because of a rare alignment between the Sun, the Moon and Jupiter, which happens only once every 144 years. News headlines India's Maha Kumbh Mela festival gets under way for first time in 144 years The Guardian India's Maha Kumbh festival sees 15 million people take holy dip on first day Reuters Kumbh Mela, explained: Its mythology, history, astrology, and why millions flock to it The Indian Express Key words and phrases under way in progress You can't enter the venue once the concert is under way. dip a brief swim After hiking all day, a quick dip in the lake felt amazing. flock move in a crowd Tourists flock to the city every summer. Next Learn more English vocabulary from the news with our News Review archive.
