U.S. Imports, Deficit Plunge From March Surge, Affecting These Nations

Forbes

2 days ago

U.S. imports into the United States plunged 19.42% in April, whipsawing from the 18.88% March surge, according to my analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data.
Because U.S. exports fell only 1.25%, the monthly deficit declined from $151.63 billion, the greatest monthly deficit in U.S. history, to $87.49 billion, the first deficit below $100 billion since President Trump's election and the two months prior.
The March surge is largely believed to be an attempt to get shipments into the country prior to Trump's controversial and litigation imperiled 'Liberation Day' tariffs on the world, which he had said he would announce on April 2 and did. The legality of those tariffs is in the courts, possibly headed to the Supreme Court.
On a year-to-date basis, U.S. trade was a record $1.94 trillion, a still-astounding 13.57% increase from the first four months of 2024. Exports were a record $711.20 billion, up 4.87%. Imports were a record $1.22 trillion, and that 19.32% gain can only mean one thing for a president who talked about eliminating the trade deficit in his firm term and saw it increase three of his four years and continues to talk about it:
The U.S. trade deficit stands at a record $512.98 billion. No other U.S. deficit has even topped $400 billion in the first four months of the year.
Importantly, but little discussed, the percentage of U.S. trade that is an export dropped to 36.75%. That's the lowest figure in almost two decades, since 2006. It's an important data point because, while the first four records are influenced by inflation, the last is not.
All in all, April was a solid month, particularly considering the 'front-loading' of imports in March brought on by tariff anxiety.
Why do I say this? Well, combining April exports and imports, the $464.68 billion total is the fourth-highest monthly total in the last 12 months. So, above average. It trails January and March of this year as well as October of last year, right before the election.
What happens if you exclude January and March of this year, both outliers affected by tariff talk? The difference in the other 10 months – including April – was only 5.49%. So, in line with most months.
But the gyrations in trade from month to month are not normal and certain to put strains up and down the supply chain.
Some reports are suggesting that larger declines might come in the month of May, since orders are generally not immediate, particularly with ocean freight. The uncertainty in Trump's trade policies, and his inclination to pause them, alter them, increase them and decrease them, makes forecasting particularly challenging.
Given the relative strength of U.S. exports in April, the declines in the countries below are, then, largely on the import side.
Ireland's imports plummeted $19.86 billion in April from the previous month, a decline equal to 64.64%. Nevertheless, Ireland's imports remain up 19.47% from the previous April. Total trade – exports and imports – is up 102.67% when compared to the first four month of 2024. Ireland is a large supplier of medicines to the United States. This year, it is the nation's seventh-ranked trade partner, up from No. 12 last year this time.
Switzerland's imports to the United States fell $12.93 billion in April from the previous month, equal to a 66.76% drop – but are up 51.57% from the previous April. On the year, Switzerland's U.S. trade is up – are you ready for this? – 244.48%. Almost all of that was gold and gold-related shipments coming to the United States from there, where the majority of the world's gold is processed. Gold increasing in price – which it is – and moving – which it was – it a sign of trepidation in the global economy. Switzerland is the United States fourth-largest trade partner, behind only Mexico, Canada and China.
Mexico and Canada saw their imports decline $6.11 billion and $6.23 billion, respectively. The decreases from the previous month were also similar, down 12.74% and 12.47%, respectively. Both are also down from the previous April. Mexico is off 2.71% and Canada is off 14.39%, the latter largely due to decreasing oil prices.
The drop in U.S. imports from China was, by way of comparison, a more moderate $4.01 billion. That was a decline of 13.63%, which would, in normal times, raise eyebrows. On this roller coaster ride, you don't even blink. But, when compared to the previous year – unlike Mexico, Canada, Ireland and Switzerland – U.S. trade with China is down even more, off 19.70%.
Imports from China in April were the lowest since March of 2010 – 181 months ago.
Another four countries saw imports fall in excess of $2 billion from March to April: Germany, South Korea, the United Kingdom and Australia.
Australia is not a country normally subject to wild swings in its U.S. trade. But, like Switzerland, it was importing a great deal of gold to the United States in March – second only to Switzerland. In April, its U.S. trade fell 55.95%. For the year, it remains up 32.06% and ranks 20th, having bumped Belgium from the top 20 U.S. trade partners.
Bottom line: April was a so-so month, with imports and the deficit taking a plunge from the highest total for either in March. It was all a reaction to Trump's erratic unpredictable trade 'policy.' The month of May remains anyone's guess. In April, exports were fairly stable. Countries with which the United States has large trade deficits – Mexico, China, Ireland, South Korea, for example – witnessed steep declines in imports from March, when they soared. Nevertheless, the U.S. deficit, total trade, total exports and total imports are all at record levels on the year.