Ottawa's Game 1 lineup vs. Toronto? Where does Zetterlund fit? Senators playoff mailbag

New York Times

18-04-2025

It's our final mailbag of the regular season. Bring on the playoffs.
Senators fans are measuring their playoff expectations, but some are also looking to the future with $18 million-plus in cap space this offseason. Plus, questions on Tim Stützle, Fabian Zetterlund, that first-round pick and more.
Questions have been condensed and edited for clarity.
What are reasonable expectations? Should we be content with making the playoffs and going out in the first round? Thank goodness Buffalo isn't a potential first-round match-up. — Bradley C.
Never be satisfied with just getting into the playoffs. If you're in it, you have every right to hope your team can go far and exceed expectations.
That being said, I think the Senators are playing with house money. They accomplished their goal of making the playoffs, so anything they get from here on out is a bonus. From top to bottom, the organization has fully embraced being an underdog against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
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I also believe their expectations and hopes would've differed depending on the opponent. If Ottawa drew Florida or Tampa Bay in the first round, we would probably look at it as an opportunity for the Sens to learn lessons against proven Cup-contending teams. But that Battle of Ontario rivalry changes everything. Imagine if the Sens can't handle the Leafs after dominating them in the regular season? I'm not sure how much solace the organization and its fanbase would take in that.
While the Leafs are favoured to win, I think Sens fans have every right to be confident. The regular season games matter little, but there are elements from those games that are worth hanging on to. The prime goaltending performances from Linus Ullmark. Shane Pinto neutralizing Auston Matthews earlier this season. Jake Sanderson is the best defenceman on either side. Brady Tkachuk is an X-factor as long as he's healthy. For those wondering after Thursday night, he says he's got 'no issues.'
I'll tell you this much: the Senators likely won't be as loose as they were in their 7-5 win over the Carolina Hurricanes. I expect the Senators to commit to a tightened, defensive-minded style against the Leafs.
Those factors are enough for me to pick Ottawa to beat Toronto in seven games, even if I'm concerned with their penalty kill and third-pairing on defence (we'll get to that later on). I could be wrong, sure. But the pressure's on the Maple Leafs to get over the hump. It's not on Ottawa.
Will Fabian Zetterlund be a regular top-six come the playoffs? — R.F.
I think Thursday night's game against the Hurricanes provided a good window into how Zetterlund can be used for the playoffs, even if he doesn't start as a regular top-six forward.
Zetterlund began the game on a fourth line with Adam Gaudette and Nick Cousins and he provided an instant impact, even if he didn't get a point.
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That game-opening goal from Gaudette started because of a forecheck by Cousins and Zetterlund, limiting time and space for the Hurricanes defender in front. If it wasn't for Zetterlund being a second man in, the Canes probably use the right-side wall to advance the puck. Instead, they lose the puck in the neutral zone after Gaudette laid a hit on a Canes forward. Cousins then claims possession, regroups briefly before finding Gaudette. A team effort from the Senators' fourth line on that goal.
Adam Gaudette makes it look easy. 😏 pic.twitter.com/u9m7A8nEar
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 17, 2025
'He's fast, man,' Gaudette said of Zetterlund Thursday night. 'He gets the pucks real quick. He holds on to them, too. He's hard to knock off the puck. Obviously, he's got a ton of skill as well and he can make a bunch of plays. Having him on your wing is something real nice to have.'
But once the Sens eased off the gas pedal and allowed the Hurricanes to get back in the game, the Sens changed their lines. Zetterlund then got bumped up to a line with Dylan Cozens and Drake Batherson. In the third period, he used his speed to drive to the net before Batherson finished the play and tied the game midway through the third. Zetterlund ended the game with four shots, with three in the third period.
'Their line was great in the third period,' coach Travis Green said. '(He) gave them a spark.'
Batherson finishes an unreal sequence by Zetterlund!! #GoSensGo
Cozens also has his second two point night in a row. This line has found instant chemistry. Zetterlund's ability to force turnovers is really standing out. https://t.co/DFMhB8Qxfe pic.twitter.com/8JEMiRE3aB
— Everyday Sens (@EverydaySens) April 18, 2025
In Zetterlund, the Sens have a quick-paced, physical presence who can chip in at both ends of the ice and move up and down the lineup. If the Senators need to put him with Tim Stützle, they can do that. Need him on the second line with Dylan Cozens and Drake Batherson? He's now shown he can do that. I have him projected on the Senators' fourth line to start the playoffs. But he's proven he can be effective there, too. If the going gets tough and Zetterlund continues to be effective, you have a secret weapon you can deploy at either wing in your lineup.
Since we're here, we might as well look at that projected roster.
Considering the Senators' relative playoff inexperience, I expect the Sens to lean on as much familiarity as possible. But as evidenced by Thursday night's game, they can make changes to their advantage on the fly.
One more thing: Let's look at that third pairing with Tyler Kleven and Nikolas Matinpalo. I know Green was mum about his third pairing when he was asked, but that's at least what I expect to see for Game 1 Sunday. Kleven and Matinpalo are inexperienced compared to Travis Hamonic. But Matinpalo has better mobility with or without the puck and can help with zone entries. That being said, Green has leaned on Hamonic's experience throughout the season. Particularly when injuries have affected their backline. I wouldn't be surprised if he drew into the lineup. But I think Kleven-Matinpalo is the better play here.
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Should we be worried about Stützle's lack of scoring? He had 39 goals in 22/23 and now 39 goals in his last 150 games. I know he's still an elite player, just curious what may be driving that. — Chris Z.
If Stützle is playing well defensively and setting up his teammates for points, I think that's fine. As mentioned above to the first question, I think the Sens could still use another player to ease that goalscoring burden off of him.
I wouldn't be worried, as he's still a primary point-getter who's just trying to be a great player at both ends of the ice. Just like everyone else, I think he needs to shoot more. He acknowledged that his confidence had much to do with it in recent games.
I think his commitment to playing more defence has also played a role in his goal-scoring dip, but he'd still have more goals if he shot the puck more. So, Stützle is still performing like a high-end player. He's just trying to do that at both ends of the ice.
Pretend you're Steve Staios. Given the Sens' current position in the standings, do you give up our first-round pick in 2025 or wait until 2026? What factors are most likely to influence your decision? — Matt B.
When I asked owner Michael Andlauer about their first-round pick last week, he said he still hoped the NHL would ease up on the punishment doled out in 2023. And while it's Staios' decision, he'd lean toward keeping the first-round pick this year. If the NHL changes its mind (and we don't know if they will), my prediction is the Senators get the last pick of the first round in 2026. That's what happened with the New Jersey Devils and the first-rounder they kept after they were penalized for salary cap circumvention in 2010.
At first, I thought about relinquishing the 2025 pick and keeping the 2026 one because of the potential of the draft class. But if the Senators improve again next year, they could get a lower first-round pick. If it all works out, and the Buffalo Sabres don't take a step next year, the Sens' second-round pick could still have some value. I get the logic in keeping the pick and holding out hope the NHL shows mercy.
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With the amount of cap space the Sens are going to have in the next few years ($18 million next year before Claude Giroux signs), can you see them going after a big UFA like a Mitch Marner, Nikolaj Ehlers or Brock Boeser? — Kirk G.
I don't see the Senators getting in on the Mitch Marner sweepstakes with teams like Chicago and San Jose prepared to throw the bag at him. Marner might also favour a veritable contending team like the Vegas Golden Knights. They are projected to have $9.6 million available in cap space this summer, but they're always ready to make a move to acquire a guy who fits their team.
Brock Boeser? I didn't get the sense that the Senators were interested in him ahead of the trade deadline. So I'm very curious if they revert course. That leaves Nikolaj Ehlers, who's battling a foot injury and is week-to-week for the playoffs. Also, if he doesn't stay in Dallas, would they make a run at Mikael Granlund on an affordable deal?
The Claude Giroux question is fascinating. PuckPedia projected Giroux's next contract with an annual average value between $4.85 and $5 million. But does Ottawa want to spend that on a 37-year-old winger? Also, what does Giroux want to do after this season ends? I think we'll need to wait on that. There's also Fabian Zetterlund, who will need a new contract.
I think we'll see the Sens do a series of smaller moves instead of one big splash. A winger and a depth defenceman are needed. Also, will the Sens try the trade route again? They did it at the deadline while being close to the cap ceiling. Will they do it again?
(Photo of Drake Batherson and Linus Ullmark celebrating Thursday's win over Carolina: Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)