A week into the fragile Israel-Iran peace agreement, here's what we still don't know

Arab News

13 hours ago

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: It's been a week since the United States pressed Israel and Iran into a truce, ending a bloody, 12-day conflict that had set the Middle East and globe on edge.
The fragile peace, brokered by the US the day after it dropped 30,000-pound 'bunker-busting' bombs on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, is holding. But much remains unsettled.
How badly Iran's nuclear program was set back remains murky. The prospects of renewed US-Iran peace talks are up in the air. And whether US President Donald Trump can leverage the moment to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's government and Hamas focused on a ceasefire and hostage deal that brings about an end to the 20-month war in Gaza remains an open question.
Here is a look at what we still don't know:
How far Iran's nuclear program has been set back
Trump says three targets hit by American strikes were 'obliterated.' His defense secretary said they were 'destroyed.'
A preliminary report issued by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did significant damage to the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, but did not totally destroy the facilities.
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on CBS' 'Face the Nation' on Sunday that the three Iranian sites with 'capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree.' But, he added, 'some is still standing' and that because capabilities remain, 'if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.' He said assessing the full damage comes down to Iran allowing inspectors access.
What future US-Iran relations might look like
After the ceasefire deal came together, Trump spoke of potentially easing decades of biting sanctions on Tehran and predicted that Iran could become a 'great trading nation' if it pulled back once-and-for-all from its nuclear program.
The talk of harmony didn't last long.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in his first public appearance after the ceasefire was announced, claimed Tehran had delivered a 'slap to America's face.' Trump responded by suggesting the supreme leader own up to the fact Iran 'got beat to hell. The president also said he was backing off reviewing any immediate sanction relief, because of Khamenei's heated comments.
White House officials say the US and Iran are already in early discussions about resuming negotiations that had ended after Israel began launching strikes. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there's no agreement in place to restart talks.
It's unclear if Iran's leadership is ready to come to the table so soon after the fighting has ended — especially if Trump holds to the position that Iran must give up nuclear enrichment for even civilian use. And Trump has offered conflicting statements about his commitment to talks. 'We may sign an agreement,' he said Wednesday at a NATO summit press conference. He added, 'I don't think it's that necessary.'
What role Iran's supreme leader will play
Khamenei's age and recent diminished appearance have raised questions about the scope of his involvement in US-Iran relations and the Islamic Republic's response to both American and Israeli strikes. But despite having spent the last few weeks in a bunker as threats to his life escalated, there is little indication that the ayatollah does not still reign supreme over the country's massive military and governmental operations.
Khamenei has ruled three times longer than his predecessor, the late Ruhollah Khomeini, and has shaped life for the country's more than 90 million people perhaps even more dramatically.
He entrenched the system of rule by the 'mullahs,' or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority, below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran's military and internal politics.
How Iran might strike back
Iran's retaliatory missile attacks on a US base in Qatar following the American bombardment were sloughed off by the White House as a half-hearted, face-saving measure. The US was forewarned and the salvos were easily fended off.
Yet Iran remains a persistent threat, particularly via cyberwarfare. Hackers backing Tehran have already targeted US banks, defense contractors and oil industry companies — but so far have not caused widespread disruptions to critical infrastructure or the economy.
The US Department of Homeland Security last week issued a public bulletin warning of increased Iranian cyber threats. And the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, is urging organizations that operate critical infrastructure like water systems, pipelines or power plants to stay vigilant.
Whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
It remains a fragile peace.
Immediately following the US strikes, Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told the Israeli leader not to expect further US offensive military action, according to a senior White House official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the sensitive diplomatic talks.
But even as he agreed to deal, Netanyahu made clear that Israel will strike again 'if anyone in Iran tries to revive this project.'
The ceasefire deal came without any agreement from Tehran on dismantling its nuclear program. Khamenei claims the attacks 'did nothing significant' to Iran's nuclear facilities.
Trump expressed confidence that Iran, at the moment, has no interest in getting its nuclear program back up. 'The last thing they're thinking about right now is enriched uranium,' Trump said.
Still, Trump says he expects Iran to open itself to international inspection to verify that it doesn't restart its nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, or some other organization 'that we respect, including ourselves.'
Whether Trump can now press Netanyahu on Gaza
The president took a big gamble with his decision to order strikes on Iran's nuclear fortress.
As a candidate, he promised to quickly end Russia's brutal war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, but has failed to find a resolution to either. He also vowed to keep the US military out of foreign conflicts.
But after helping Israel with US strikes on Iran, Trump — in conversations with Netanyahu and other world leaders in recent days — has made clear he wants a deal completed soon, according to two people familiar with the private discussions and were not authorized to comment publicly.
On Friday, Trump told reporters, 'We think within the next week we're going to get a ceasefire.'
Trump didn't offer any further explanation for his optimism. But Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer will be in Washington this week for talks with senior administration officials on a Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.