Hegseth to prioritize China, increased allied spending in Asia — but questions remain

Japan Times

2 days ago

If there was any doubt about Donald Trump's top military priorities in the Indo-Pacific, his defense chief's widely anticipated speech at this year's Shangri-La Dialogue made these crystal clear: deterring China and having allies commit to higher spending and burden-sharing are at the top of his list.
Warning on Saturday of an imminent and 'real" threat by Beijing to alter the regional balance of power in Asia, particularly with an invasion of Taiwan, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called on Washington's regional allies and partners to ramp up military budgets — possibly to as high as 5% of gross domestic product.
'We cannot look away and we cannot ignore it. China's behavior toward its neighbors and the world is a wake up call and an urgent one,' Hegseth said before a packed house as defense chiefs, military brass and senior diplomats gathered in Singapore for Asia's premier regional security conference.
Pointing to 'destabilizing actions' in areas such as the disputed South China Sea as well as Beijing's potential to invade self-ruled Taiwan, Hegseth said in his first major public outline of the Pentagon's Indo-Pacific policy that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is building the capabilities needed for an invasion.
Beijing is 'training for it every day and rehearsing for the real deal,' he warned, asserting that Chinese leader Xi Jinping 'has ordered his military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027' — an intelligence-based assessment that is difficult to independently verify as there is no public record of Xi stating this.
China, which did not send Defense Minister Adm. Dong Jun to the conference, reacted swiftly, with the Foreign Ministry in Beijing accusing Washington of touting a 'Cold War mentality for bloc confrontation.' Beijing also warned the Trump administration 'not to play with fire,' referring to Taiwan, which it views as a breakaway province it aims to unite with the mainland, as 'entirely China's internal affair.'
Saturday's remarks by the U.S. defense secretary were closely scrutinized by regional defense chiefs, military leaders and senior diplomats skeptical of Washington's commitment to the region.
They came as Trump continues to run roughshod over long-held conventions between Washington and its allies and partners, threatening even close friends with onerous tariffs and labeling long-standing alliances as unfair.
Meia Nouwens, an expert on Chinese defense policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which is also the Shrangri-La Dialogue's co-organizer, called Hegseth's speech 'a clear statement of commitment to the region.'
'This is the strongest speech we've heard so far from this administration that the Indo-Pacific remains the U.S.'s priority theater,' she told The Japan Times. Still, she added, 'Asian capitals will be looking to see if words match actions moving forward.'
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani shake hands at the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore on Saturday. |
REUTERS
Meanwhile, Hegseth sought to link what he said was the threat China represents to U.S. demands that Asian allies and partners spend more on their own defense, calling on them to follow Europe's example and commit to higher spending and burden-sharing.
'NATO members are pledging to spend 5% of their GDP on defense, even Germany,' he said. 'So it doesn't make sense for countries in Europe to do that while key allies in Asia spend less on defense in the face of an even more formidable threat, not to mention North Korea.'
The defense chief noted that while China envies what the U.S. and its allies can collectively bring to bear on defense, 'it's up to all of us to ensure that we live up to that potential by investing.'
'U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific can and should quickly upgrade their own defenses,' Hegseth said. 'Deterrence does not come cheap. Time is of the essence. We must step up and move out with a sense of urgency.'
But the U.S. defense chief's calls for boosted defense budgets in Asia will be an uphill battle from the start.
As of last year, South Korea topped the region by spending 2.6% of GDP, followed by Taiwan, Australia, Japan and the Philippines, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The demand is likely to be a nonstarter with Tokyo, in particular.
Ostensibly pacifist Japan has in recent years undertaken a dramatic transformation of its security policy, including a decision to ramp up defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027. Pouring even more cash into defense coffers would come with significant political costs, something Defense Minister Gen Nakatani alluded to following a bilateral meeting with Hegseth later Saturday.
Asked whether the two had spoken about a specific number for Japan's defense budget, or if the U.S. side had requested that Tokyo purchase more defense equipment, Nakatani demurred, saying only that he had reiterated Japan's view that 'what is important is the substance of strengthened defense capabilities," not an arbitrary figure.
Nouwens, however, said it remained too early to tell exactly what Hegseth — and more importantly Trump — may expect from Asian allies and partners, despite the spending hike hint.
'It wasn't clear to whom this applies and if the expectation is that countries in Asia match' the demands that European nations spend 5% of GDP on defense, she said.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speaks during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday. |
Bloomberg
Hegseth had sought to ease at least some of the growing skepticism and murkiness surrounding the Trump administration's claimed focus on the Indo-Pacific by zeroing in on China as a malign regional actor.
'We will not be pushed out of this critical region, and we will not let our allies and partners be subordinated and intimidated,' Hegseth said in his speech, claiming that Beijing 'seeks to become a hegemonic power' in Asia.
Later on Saturday, Hegseth met with the defense chiefs of Japan, Australia and the Philippines — the first gathering of a grouping known as "the Squad" under the second Trump White House — with the defense chief calling the grouping the most 'strategically positioned to manifest deterrence, to bring about peace' amid 'an unprecedented military buildup by China.'
Dong, China's defense chief, had used his speech at the 2024 iteration of the Shangri-La Dialogue to denounce the formation of 'exclusive military alliances' and attempts to create 'bloc confrontation' to rein in China.
Dong, however, was conspicuously absent from this year's conference, despite China sending its defense chief in recent years, with a delegation from the country's National Defense University, attending instead. The reason for the apparent downgrade was unclear, but the decision was seen by some as a snub.
Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, questioned Washington's credibility with allies and partners, pointing to Trump's unilateral sanctions and its treatment of Canada, Panama and European countries.
Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the same institute, raised doubts about whether groupings like the Squad will be truly viable in times of conflict if they become legitimate targets for the PLA.
'In peacetime, these groupings might be there, but in wartime, they may not be there,' Bo told The Japan Times in an interview, while also raising doubts about Japan's appetite for a major conflict with China.
Hegseth's speech stood in sharp contrast with remarks delivered the previous night by French President Emmanuel Macron who called on Asian and European nations to build 'strategic autonomy,' avoid picking sides between the U.S. and China, stand up to "spheres of coercion" and forge "coalitions of action" in a number of areas including security, the environment and trade.
But Macron also credited Trump for encouraging Europe to increase defense spending, widely seen as an important step to achieving this strategic autonomy.
Kaja Kallas, the European Union's top diplomat, shared a similar view, comparing Trump's insistence on more military spending to "tough love."
"It's love nonetheless, so it's better than no love," Kallas said when asked later about Hegseth's speech.
Nevertheless, this year's Shangri-La Dialogue revealed a growing perception gap between the U.S. and Europe in terms of what the latter's role in Asia should be.
In recent years, European powers have been ramping up their presence in the region, engaging in a flurry of bilateral and multilateral military activities.
Queried about this, Hegseth said that while this was 'useful,' he would 'much prefer that the overwhelming balance of European investment be on that continent.' This, he said, would allow Washington to use its 'comparative advantage as an Indo-Pacific nation to support our partners here.'
Kallas, however, disagreed, adding that she had made her views known to Hegseth following his speech.
'Great powers maybe think that they don't need anybody; everybody needs them instead,' she told The Straits Times newspaper. 'But I think in these times, everybody needs everyone. We need to work together — the big powers too.'