Swedes' Housing Optimism Weakens With Lower Consumer Confidence
Optimism among Swedes over the direction of home prices is waning as the Nordic country continues to grapple with economic headwinds and the prospect of slowing growth.
A housing-price indicator from SEB AB, Sweden's largest lender, fell by 2 points from the previous month to 34 in May, as 47% of respondents believe prices will gain, compared with 13% anticipating a decrease.
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Recession Risk After The Jobs Report
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These indicators are updated weekly or daily and have shown a strong correlation with economic activity. Indeed, other indicators are crucial, but they are typically only available on a monthly basis, sometimes with a significant time lag. Despite the economic data remaining resilient, consensus estimates of 2025 US GDP growth remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. Economists generally expect the drag from tariffs to slow economic growth in the second half of the year. Consensus US GDP Growth Forecasts Baa corporate bond data has a long history and provides a look at the 'typical' credit quality of companies, as Baa credit rating is the lowest level of investment-grade bonds. The spread is the yield that investors demand beyond US Treasury bond rates to compensate for the default risk associated with buying corporate bonds. These spreads expand when investors worry that more bond defaults could be on the horizon, typically driven by deteriorating economic conditions. Spreads on Baa corporate debt are below the highs hit as stocks bottomed in early April. The narrowing of spreads is consistent with a lower risk of economic downturn. Corporate Bond Spreads The Chicago Fed produces the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) on a weekly basis. It looks at 105 measures across three categories, risk, credit, and leverage, to create a measure of financial conditions. According to the Chicago Fed, 'Positive values of the NFCI have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions.' The chart indicates that periods of tighter-than-normal financial conditions have frequently been correlated with recessions. Similar to credit spreads, the tightness of financial conditions has eased from the early-April highs. 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Yahoo
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10 Cities Where Social Security Benefits Are Highest: Should Retirees Move There?
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That would be counteracted by rising budget deficits, with a net effect of taking 1.83% annual growth to 1.86%. JCT estimates that the bill's tax provisions would cover less than 3% of their costs with revenue from economic growth. Yale Budget Lab: The think tank says the bill would bump the growth rate roughly to 2% from 1.8% through 2027, before the drag of federal debt weakens and reverses that effect. Those all contrast with the view of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, which has a far rosier scenario. It projects a 4.2% to 5.2% increase in short-term GDP and a long-term gain of 2.9% to 3.5%. That gain would be three to four times the Tax Foundation estimate, which itself is larger than Penn Wharton, Yale or JCT. Economists caution that tax policy can't move the needle much in the U.S. economy, particularly given higher costs and uncertainty caused by tariffs. Still, putting money in taxpayers' pockets could increase demand for goods and services. Lower business taxes—especially faster write-offs for equipment and factories—encourage investment and have the biggest bang for the buck. Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran said growth after 2017 demonstrates that the Republican formula can work. The economy and incomes grew solidly in 2018 and 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic scrambled everything. 'When Americans elected President Trump, they did so knowing that he was a pro-growth president,' Miran said. 'The bill is going to create a vibrant, dynamic economy.' Miran added that federal taxes as a share of GDP was barely unchanged from fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2024. According to CBO, revenue was 17.3% of GDP in 2017 and 17.1% in 2024. 'There was no long-term hole in revenues,' Miran said. But before the tax cuts passed, CBO forecast revenue increasing to 18.3% in 2024, and the law changed that trajectory. One of the most thorough academic studies found that the 2017 law increased domestic business investment but didn't come close to paying for itself. The Tax Foundation's Watson said policymakers should expect a more muted response from extending the 2017 tax cuts than from creating them. The bill includes new and revived business incentives but schedules them to expire. 'It's pro-growth,' Watson said. 'The more you add in some of these gimmicks and temporary changes, the more watered-down it gets.' Senators including James Lankford (R., Okla.) and Steve Daines (R., Mont.) are seeking changes to encourage growth. They are particularly focused on making permanent some business-tax provisions such as immediate deductions for equipment purchases. 'If you have an expiration, you just don't get predictability,' Lankford said. Capital-investment incentives would be muted because tariff uncertainty complicates business planning, said Seth Carpenter, global chief economist at Morgan Stanley, which estimates that the bill would boost growth in 2026 before turning neutral and then negative. Some projects might make sense with high tariffs but not lower ones. Even with the bill's new deduction for factory expenses, without tariff certainty, Carpenter said, 'I don't think you're going to be in any sort of hurry to start breaking ground.' Kimberly Clausing, a former Biden administration economist now at the University of California, Los Angeles, said she worries about the drag from budget deficits. 'If they failed,' she said, 'I actually think that would be the best possible macroeconomic outcome.' 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