'Midnight Hammer': What if US bombing on Iran's nuclear sites was effective - and that's the problem?

Time of India

3 hours ago

By striking three major nuclear facilities in Iran -- Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan -- US President Donald Trump may have delivered a "bold" military blow to Tehran's declared nuclear program.
But analysts warn that this apparent tactical victory may come at a strategic cost- making it far more difficult to track what's left of Iran's nuclear activities and where they now lie.
The US, in a midnight operation, targeted Iran's three key sites using B-2 bombers loaded with Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs). Satellite images of Fordow show new craters and possible tunnel collapses, but no confirmed damage to the underground enrichment halls.
Natanz suffered only partial damage to surface-level infrastructure during earlier Israeli raids, with the extent of US impact still unclear.
The most visible destruction appears to be at Isfahan, though reports suggest Iran may have relocated uranium stockpiles ahead of the attacks.
Trump hailed the operation as a 'spectacular military success,' saying the sites had been 'totally obliterated.' US defense secretary Pete Hegseth added that the strikes were focused and avoided civilian casualties.
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However, the long-term consequences may be less about what was destroyed and more about what's now untraceable.
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Fallout for nuclear monitoring
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which previously conducted inspections at these sites, has now lost access to key materials and locations.
The core mission of the IAEA is to meticulously track even gram-level quantities of uranium globally to prevent its diversion for nuclear weapons.
However, according to Tariq Rauf, former head of the agency's nuclear verification policy, the recent airstrikes have significantly complicated efforts to monitor Iran's uranium stockpile.
'It will now be very difficult for the IAEA to establish a material balance for the nearly 9,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, especially the nearly 410 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium,' Bloomberg reported quoting Rauf.
Moreover, inspectors, last week, admitted they had lost track of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, citing Israeli military operations as a key obstacle to their monitoring efforts. The uranium—previously verified by IAEA inspectors at the Isfahan facility—is sufficient to produce up to 10 nuclear warheads if processed at a covert location. Given its compact volume, small enough to fit into just 16 containers, experts believe the material may have already been relocated to an undisclosed site.
What's left and what's next?
Iran's nuclear capabilities are widely distributed across hardened facilities and backed by a workforce of thousands. Even if major sites are damaged, the infrastructure, expertise, and undeclared centrifuge stockpiles remain intact.
"As for Iran's technical expertise, it cannot be destroyed, knowing that thousands of people have participated in Iran's nuclear programme," AFP quoted nuclear expert Heloise Fayet saying.
While Iran is yet to respond militarily, experts suggest it may opt for a measured escalation — symbolic retaliation against Israel or Gulf targets, rather than directly drawing the US into a prolonged conflict.