Blue Jays blast D'backs as Max Scherzer's long-awaited return could be as soon as next week
The boxscore will show that Eric Lauer made his fourth start of the season Wednesday night at the Rogers Centre, allowing one earned run over five-plus innings in a blowout 8-1 Blue Jays win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
However, with due respect to the lefty's latest handiwork — which included eight strikeouts on Wednesday — the Jays are hoping and intending this latest outing was just keeping the rubber warm in that spot of the rotation for the long-awaited return of it's big off-season pitching acquisition, Max Scherzer.
With that in mind, as the Jays breezed to their second in a row over the D'Backs, the bigger development in the zoomed-out view of their season unfolded down in Worcester, Mass., where Scherzer was brilliant in what surely had the feel of his final rehab start with the Jays' triple-A affiliate Buffalo Bisons.
The 40-year-old veteran reached his intended pitch limit of 75 and did so by striking out eight Red Sox hitters over 4.1 scoreless innings. Assuming everything is OK with Scherzer's bothersome thumb, returning to a big league mound for just his second start with the Jays next Tuesday in Cleveland is a real possibility.
'Having the name, having the competitiveness, having the stuff,' Jays manager John Schneider said when asked prior to Wednesday's game what Scherzer could bring to his team. 'It would be huge just to have him, knowing that you have that calibre of pitcher waiting on your staff every fifth day would be a nice shot in the arm.'
It would be much more than that, of course. The Jays rotation has been in tatters over the past month, held together by overusing the bullpen at times and sticking with struggling Bowden Francis. That's why Lauer's effort was so critical on Wednesday, causing minimal strain on a bullpen that will be asked to cover multiple innings here on Friday against the Chicago White Sox.
In fact, Lauer has been so reliable for the Jays that, down the road, he could slide into the other black hole of the rotation.
Bigger things first, though. When you have a three-time Cy Young Award winner and two-time World Series champion ready to contribute, you tend to get a little bit excited if you are the Blue Jays.
'That would be good,' Schneider said with a smile and no further explanation when next Tuesday was raised as a possibility for Scherzer, who hasn't pitched in the bigs since a three-inning outing on March 29. 'That would line up nicely.'
It would also give the Jays the boost that they need at a time of the season when wear and tear starts to hit pitching staffs around baseball.
And as easy as it is to forget, given that Scherzer has spent 70 games on the injured list with that wonky thumb, the Jays paid him $15.5 million US on a one-year deal for a reason.
Prior to Wednesday's win, the Jays' 14th in their past 19 to move their record to 40-33, Schneider was asked what it was like to be on the other side when Scherzer's name came up as a probable pitcher for the opposition.
'It sucked,' the manager said. 'You know what you were getting into. You know that it's a future Hall of Famer that knows how to pitch. And whether he's got 94 (miles per hour on his fastball) or 98 in the tank that night, he knows what he's doing.'
Down in Worcester, Scherzer certainly appeared to be accelerating on the right track, with a fastball hovering around 94 miles per hour and confounding triple-A hitters.
'He always thinks his stuff is ready,' Schneider said. 'I think it's more the physical part, how he's feeling tonight, tomorrow and the days in between. He thinks he could strike everybody out right now.'
Doing it for the Blue Jays and doing so soon could be one of the biggest developments of a season headed in the right direction for the better part of the past month.
On Wednesday, the Jays picked up where they left off in Tuesday's dramatic ninth-inning comeback victory, when leadoff hitter Bo Bichette launched his 10th homer of the season in the first, a 418-foot blast to centre field.
They broke it open in the sixth when back-to-back doubles from Addison Barger and Vlad Guerrero Jr. (and how are those bats back-to-back working for you?) were part of a three-run burst to increase the lead to 5-1 before a crowd of 27,635.
Barger continued his torrid play at the plate with a pair of doubles and a single. Of his 46 base hits this season, 24 have been for extra bases.
In taking the first two against the D'Backs for a rousing start to a six-game home stand, the Jays have now won 11 of their past 12 Rogers Centre contests.
That three-game weekend sweep at the hands of the Phillies in Philadelphia is the Jays' only series loss in their previous seven.
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Brad Marchand has tortured the Toronto Maple Leafs for the better part of the last 15 years, particularly when it matters. Only one player has collected more playoff points against the Leafs than Marchand (37), and his name is Gordie Howe (53). Nobody has scored more playoff game-winners versus the Leafs. It's Marchand and Jean Beliveau with five apiece. The Leafs can't beat Marchand, a pending free agent and now two-time Stanley Cup champion. Should they get him to join them instead? It makes almost too much sense. Marchand just won his second Cup with the Florida Panthers, squashing the Leafs along the way with three goals and eight points in a seven-game second-round win. The Leafs need more playoff heroes. Few have earned that rep quite like Marchand. The NHL playoff scoring leaders in the salary-cap era are: Only Alex Ovechkin (77), Joe Pavelski (74), Crosby (71) and Malkin (67) have scored more playoff goals in that time than Marchand (66). Marchand hasn't just trampled over the Leafs. He's trampled over everyone. Over the last eight postseasons, from the early days of his star turn in Boston, Marchand is better than a point-per-game player, with 115 points, including 49 goals, in 108 games. Advertisement He piled up 10 goals and 20 points in 23 games (with only second-unit power-play opportunity) en route to the Cup this spring. Will that playoff magic carry over to the Leafs as Marchand, who will be 38 when the next postseason rolls around, inches closer to 40? His playoff record is so longstanding that there's reason to think so. We've also seen players his age and older do it before in the current era. Mark Recchi put up 50 points in 79 playoff games and won two Stanley Cups after his 38th birthday, the latter at age 43 in 2011 as Marchand's teammate with the Bruins. Bill Guerin, Corey Perry, Pavelski and Martin St. Louis all managed to keep the contributions flowing in the salary-cap era as the greys in their respective beards piled up. The Leafs, at least initially, would be looking for Marchand to fill an opening somewhere in the top six, whether it's on Auston Matthews' soon-to-be vacant right wing or on the left wing of a line that stars William Nylander: Knies – Matthews – Marchand Marchand – ? – Nylander They would be asking more from Marchand than the Panthers just did. Florida had Marchand slice and dice foes from a devastating third line with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. Which meant, at times, lighter competition. And yet, Marchand still played almost 17 minutes a game in the postseason, which put him sixth among Panther forwards, and it was his line that helped stall Matthews' group in that second-round series. Marchand's star days may be over — he finished top 10 in Hart Trophy voting four times — but it's conceivable to think he could be a top-six contributor for at least the next two seasons. Before he was traded to Florida, when he was still playing top-six minutes for a spiraling Bruins team, Marchand scored at a 28-goal, 63-point pace. At times, he didn't look quite as punchy, including as a limited contributor for Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off. And there were hints of decline. Fewer takeaways. More giveaways. Continued decline in five-on-five production (which coincided with Patrice Bergeron's retirement). Yet, Marchand still generated shots like usual during the regular season and ranked right near the top of the league in expected goals per 60 minutes. (His actual goals per 60: 1.06.) Marchand shot only 14 percent on high-danger shots, below the league average of 20 percent. A season earlier, he scored 16 goals on 61 shots for a blistering 26 percent shooting percentage. Is the drop-off a product of slightly more rotten luck, age-related decline, or health-related issues for someone who had three surgeries in the 2024 offseason — elbow, groin, and sports hernia — and double-hip surgery in 2022? Advertisement It's tempting to think that Marchand would cash in on a better chunk of his opportunities with a spot next to Matthews and his Arizona pal, Matthew Knies, or Nylander, for that matter. (There are parallels between the fit that Marchand might have with Nylander and the one he had for years with David Pastrnak.) A healthy Matthews can lift his linemates, especially if it's one with Marchand's wide-ranging skill set. Marchand, conversely, could have an uplifting effect on Matthews himself. What could the Leafs expect from Marchand in the regular season? Over the last 15 years, 23 players have kicked in at least 50 points at age 37 or beyond, including six last season. That feels like a reasonable floor for Marchand for at least the next two seasons. The ceiling could be upwards of 70 points, with 25-30 goals, especially if Marchand claims a spot on the Leafs' No. 1 power-play unit. (He played on PP2 in Florida.) That plus a whole whack of penalties drawn. Marchand was still an expert in that department last season, drawing 32 penalties in all, which ranked sixth in the league. He was second the previous season (46 drawn) and third the year before that (41). The Leafs — 22nd overall in penalties drawn last season – could certainly use some of that, though it's worth noting that Marchand takes a large chunk of penalties himself, which cuts into that advantage. Marchand would find roles on both special teams units as a Leafs player. He and Bergeron were long one of the NHL's most feared penalty-killing duos, and it would make some sense for the Leafs to drop him into Mitch Marner's old gig next to Matthews on PK1. Or perhaps, given his age and the need to conserve his minutes somewhat during the regular season, the Leafs could opt to use him in a more depth role. Marchand has scored nine short-handed goals over the last five seasons. Advertisement It's a mystery at this point what the Leafs will do on the power play next season, but Marchand would figure into a prominent role on one of the two units. Only Leon Draisaitl (21) has scored more power-play goals in the playoffs since 2018 than Marchand (18). The Leafs have lacked finishers in that department every postseason. What also can't be discounted with Marchand? The intangible boost he would add to the Leafs. General manager Brad Treliving is seeking a change this offseason. It would be hard to find any one player who might help with that, who might infect the group with a swaggier personality in the playoffs, more than Marchand, still a never-scared pest after all these years. It's more than that, though. Marchand has always been comfortable in the spotlight, and there's no reason to think that would change even amid brighter lights in Toronto. Having him around might ease the burden on Matthews, Nylander and others. The Leafs could turn to Marchand when the waters need cooling, whether that's with the media, on the bench or in the dressing room. The team has lacked a guy like that since Jason Spezza. There's also this from the business side of things: With his playing style and persona, Marchand would instantly become one of the most popular players on the team. No. 63 Leaf jerseys would become ubiquitous in the city. Why not bring him in? The risk of soon-ish decline, which could be costly if the Leafs were to meet what could be Marchand's apparent going rate of a four-year deal, with a cap hit of $8 million. Again and again, the Leafs have witnessed firsthand — from Spezza to Wayne Simmonds, Patrick Marleau, Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie and Joe Thornton, among others — how quickly the bottom can drop out on older players. And Marchand isn't exactly a big guy, making future injuries even likelier, perhaps. Advertisement Perhaps it won't happen until year three of the deal, when Marchand is 39. However, it may happen sooner than that. Marleau signed a three-year deal with the Leafs not long before his 38th birthday. Marleau had 27 goals and 47 points in year one, adding four goals in seven playoff games. A season later, he dropped to 16 goals and 37 points in the regular season and couldn't keep up in the playoffs. The Leafs parted with a first-round pick to rid themselves of the last year of his contract. As with Marleau, and unlike the addition of a younger player, the Leafs wouldn't be buying upside with Marchand but rather some combination of status quo and decline. The playoff run doesn't exactly prove anything for the future, but it would seem to suggest that Marchand still has some gas left in the tank. He's going to decline. He is declining already. But it's not silly to think he could be a useful top-six forward for the next two seasons and fall into third-line duty after that. Even as a third-liner, Marchand would be helpful to a team that has perennially lacked contributions from down there when it matters. The only forwards currently signed beyond next season are Matthews, Nylander, Max Domi, and David Kämpf, with Knies soon to join the group. In other words, it's possible, likely even, that Marchand, two seasons from now, would land lower on the depth chart, decline or not, than he presumably would next fall. There's also the rising cap to consider, as well as the Leafs' contention window. An $8 million player next season is more like a $7.4 million player this past season. A year after that, it's more like a $6.7 million player and so on. In other words, as Marchand grows older and presumably less effective, his share of the cap will fall too. Matthews has three years remaining on his contract, mind you, which, until another contract extension rolls around, puts a neat bow on the Leafs' apparent window to win big. Advertisement The Leafs could fortuitously structure the deal. And if that decline becomes problematic, it will likely be tied to physical decline that makes an LTIR exit viable. Should the Leafs go for it then? Try as I might to find reasons not to gamble on Marchand, I can't find many beyond the risk mentioned above that comes with signing an aging player to a pricey long-ish deal. The Leafs' time is now — and there aren't many, if any, free agents out there who check as many potential boxes as Marchand, nor are there many trades, given the team's limited pool of assets, that make substantial upgrades elsewhere on the roster possible. Marchand the Leaf? It may be worth the risk. — Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, Stat Head, PuckPedia
