Thunder at -750 a 'fair price' to win NBA Finals
Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick look ahead to a potential Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers matchup in the NBA Finals, discussing why the Thunder are fairly priced to win the title.
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9 minutes ago
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2025 NBA Finals: Why the Oklahoma City Thunder are America's Team
America's NBA team is playing on Thursday — in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. I'm convinced the reason you don't know them as America's team is because they haven't been properly marketed. I just don't see any other plausible reason. I'm talking about the Oklahoma City Thunder. The same Oklahoma City Thunder that were somehow not selected among the 10 marquee teams to play on Christmas Day. The same Oklahoma City Thunder that were scheduled to be on national TV fewer times this season than the Philadelphia 76ers. Advertisement The Oklahoma City Thunder should be an American sensation, yet it feels they're preposterously underexposed. On the NBA's biggest stage, against the Indiana Pacers in the Finals, they deserve your undivided attention. Here are five reasons why: (Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports Illustration) 1. They are really good at basketball. Historically good The Thunder had a 68-14 record in the Western Conference which is like 78-4 in Eastern Conference currency. They outscored opponents by 12.7 points every 100 possessions, which was the best net rating in the league and more than 10 full points better than the Pacers' 2.1 figure. But that doesn't even give OKC its proper due. Advertisement To get a better idea of how good this OKC team is, we have to adjust for strength of schedule (i.e. they don't get to play in the East). We can do that by looking at Simple Rating System (SRS), which accounts for opponent strength and can be found on Basketball Reference for every team dating back to 1946. The Thunder's SRS stands at 12.70, which means they are nearly 13 points better than the average team. The team with the best record in the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers, finished at 8.81. Even with Chet Holmgren out for the majority of its games during the regular season, OKC lapped the competition. But to fully understand how good this OKC team is, we can look at the number of teams who have finished a full season at a 12.70 SRS. Here's that list: Oh, wait. Sorry. There isn't a list. Advertisement In 2024-25, OKC had the best SRS in NBA history. A whopping 54 of the Thunder's 68 wins were by double-digits, which included runaway wins over Cleveland, Boston, New York, Indiana, Houston, Denver and the Lakers. To put it plainly, they beat opponents so badly (and lost so sparingly) that they rate, by many advanced metrics, as the best regular-season team in NBA history. But that's not the only reason they should be more familiar by now. 2. The NBA needs to invest in tomorrow There will come a day when LeBron James and Stephen Curry aren't playing in the NBA anymore. No one knows when that day will be, but we know this: The NBA is still all-in on the LeBron and Steph business. The Warriors and the Lakers led the NBA with 29 appearances on national TV, which was 27 percent more than the Thunder, who were chasing all-time records throughout the season. Advertisement As crazy as it sounds, the Thunder were not among the 10 teams picked to play on Christmas Day this season despite being the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last season and upgrading their depth with Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. On the other side, the Pacers weren't showcased on Christmas Day either. As I detailed in a recent Big Number episode, this Finals matchup marks the first time since 2007 that the two conference champions were not selected by the NBA to play on Christmas Day. Unfortunately, the NBA has to figure out what the post-LeBron and post-Steph era looks like, and investing in young great teams like the Thunder is way past due. Going forward, the Thunder should be put front and center. The NBA added several Thunder games to their national TV offering as the season went on, but their national TV count of 23 games still trailed Golden State (29), the Lakers (29), Boston (27) and New York (24) in appearances on ESPN/ABC and TNT. It's not like the Thunder came out of nowhere this year. The Thunder won 57 games last season with the second-youngest roster in the league! They weren't just good; they had staying power. We've never seen a team this young and this good. They may not draw the largest TV ratings today, but it'd be wise to take a little hit on the audience size in the short-term and reap the long-term benefits of having American fans entrenched in Thunder vibes. Speaking of vibes, let's talk about the guy who was just named the league's MVP. 3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is him I mean, look at the guy. He wears sunglasses at night. He dons giant fur coats inside. I wish I could pull off half the fits he does (or just one). The NBA loves a news-conference fashion icon and SGA certainly delivers. But it's the basketball stuff. My god, the basketball stuff. The way he deftly uses speed and footwork to routinely butcher a five-man defense is sublime. The 26-year-old averaged 32.7 points, 6.4 assists and 5 rebounds while shooting 57.1 percent on 2s and 37.5 percent on 3s. He was once again among the league leaders in steals and a virtuoso in the open court. Advertisement The best way I can put it is this: SGA is at once the hot knife slicing through the stick of soft butter and also the stick of soft butter. If that makes sense. And he's always there. In an NBA beleaguered by stars missing games, he has played in 92 games this season, which is more than Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined, the power duo that the Clippers assembled by trading away Gilgeous-Alexander to OKC in 2019. He's a throwback and the future at the same time. Sometimes fans just need a star who shows up. He is him. 4. The Thunder play defense like there's no tomorrow A most common complaint about NBA basketball is that teams don't play defense. A) That's not true. B) If you believe that, then you clearly haven't watched OKC. Advertisement I called them the OKC Dobermans on The Big Number for a reason. They're so fast and suffocating that it often feels as if they're playing six-on-five. Of the top seven players in steals per game this season, three of them play for the Thunder: Cason Wallace (1.8 steals), Gilgeous-Alexander (1.7) and Jalen Williams (1.6). It's not fair. No team prioritized possessing the ball more than OKC. Opponents turned it over a league-high 17 times per game, routinely giving the Thunder extra possessions to attack on the other end. This postseason, the Thunder have scored 380 points off of turnovers. No other team has more than 300. The Thunder deeply understand the value of winning the turnover game. They have registered 535 fewer turnovers than their opponents this season, playoffs included. The NBA record before that was 467, per Stathead tracking. They have a chance to smash the all-time record by ONE HUNDRED turnovers. Do you understand what I'm saying? 5. They are homegrown — and about to grow a whole lot more If you're not a fan of the player empowerment era where stars hop from one team to another, I get it. It might be unfamiliar and dizzying to keep up with. And guess what, do I have a team for you. Advertisement GM Sam Presti and the Thunder have put a premium on internal development. They drafted Chet Holmgren (2nd in 2022), Jalen Williams (12th in 2022) and Cason Wallace (10th in 2023). They traded for a 20-year-old Gilgeous-Alexander and paired him with an undrafted free agent named Lu Dort — the two have been chipping away at this since 2019-20 and fought through a 22-50 season together. The team took a chance on a 29-year-old Mark Daigneault in 2014, naming him the head coach of its G League team. Six years later, he was promoted from within and eventually took over for Billy Donovan, becoming the second-youngest head coach in the NBA. Daigneault is now considered one of the league's top coaches, winning Coach of the Year in 2023-24. The organization's biggest signing in free agency this summer, Isaiah Hartenstein, was a G League standout like Daigneault. After a successful stint with the Knicks, Hartenstein was rewarded with a three-year, $87 million contract in OKC, and it's fitting and comical that a backup center is easily the biggest free-agent signing in franchise history. The homegrown roster construction lends itself to some pretty wholesome moments. For instance, the OKC players insist on doing postgame interviews as a team, rather than featuring one individual. However, within the 48 minutes of game action, they let their play do the talking. They have six technical fouls as a team and one of them was on Dort kissing his three fingers after making a 3. Seriously. Advertisement Best of all, it still feels like we're getting in early on the Thunder's rise like it's the second inning of a nine-inning game. They're four wins away from becoming the youngest team to win the championship (average age of 24.7 years old when accounting for minutes played) since the NBA/ABA merger and more elite draft picks are on the way. There is no Right Way To Do It in sports, but the Thunder offer a blueprint for which other non-marquee teams can aspire. Inevitably, the team will get expensive when Holmgren and Williams' extensions come due in 2026, but figuring out how to pay several All-Star-caliber players in two years is a good problem to have. Advertisement The Thunder don't have to worry about that now. They have a Finals matchup with the Pacers on Thursday — which is, thankfully, on national TV. [Editor's note: This story was originally published on Dec. 17 and has been updated.]
Yahoo
13 minutes ago
- Yahoo
NBA Finals 2025: How the Pacers wisely and efficiently built a championship finalist
As the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder prepare to face each other in the NBA Finals, it's worth a moment to look back at how they each got there, through the lens of their respective roster construction. First off, let's take a look at the Pacers, who used a more traditional approach to get where they are. Advertisement Indiana applied a model that's becoming increasingly popular among NBA teams, which entails having two max-level contracts and considerable depth on the bench. (Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports illustration) The Tyrese Haliburton trade What's interesting is how neither Tyrese Haliburton nor Pascal Siakam were drafted by the Pacers, meaning both were external acquisitions — from the Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors, respectively. Indiana shipped All-Star center Domantas Sabonis to the Kings in a deal for Haliburton, who at the time was available due to the presence of De'Aaron Fox. (Side note: Why is Sacramento afraid of having multiple ball-handlers? This is the same team that allegedly had issues with the idea of drafting Luka Dončić in 2018, also due to the presence of Fox. Guys, you can have more players who can dribble the ball, promise!) Advertisement With Sabonis and Haliburton swapping places, and the latter landing in a place where there was a need for a primary player, Haliburton took full advantage of the available role. This resulted in Haliburton signing a max rookie extension with the Pacers after his third season, which turned into a 30% maximum salary, as opposed to the regular 25%, due to him making All-NBA in 2023-2024. Acquiring Pascal Siakam As for Siakam, who won a title with the Raptors in 2019, he became available when the organization decided to pivot into a major retooling process, clearing the path for Indiana to make a push for him. Advertisement Fortunately for the Pacers, this time around they didn't have to relinquish a player in the same quality tier as Sabonis. Instead, they sacrificed draft equity, giving up two 2024 selections in the first round and a 2026 first-rounder. (One of those selections was acquired via Oklahoma City in an earlier trade in the summer of 2023.) As for salary-matching, the Pacers primed themselves perfectly months before, when they'd signed Bruce Brown to a massive $45 million deal over just two seasons. Brown's outgoing salary of $22 million, combined with the contracts of other less notable players, ultimately allowed the Pacers to absorb Siakam, and thus a duo was formed that would lay the foundation for the team we'll now be seeing in the Finals. The pieces around them This isn't to say the Pacers didn't have weapons even before the acquisitions of Haliburton and Siakam. Advertisement Myles Turner has spent his entire professional career, now stretching a decade, with the Pacers since being selected 11th overall in 2015 out of Texas. The 3-point shooting center, who is also an elite defender, became one of the first true 3&D centers in the NBA and remains one of the most consistent of his kind. The 29-year-old, who had to navigate constant trade rumors for well over five seasons, leveled up his game three years ago, turning himself into a more evolved — and involved — scorer than before and has now settled into a role where he's either the third or fourth option any given night. As for other crucial members of the core, they too were acquired without Indiana relinquishing its entire future. Advertisement Bennedict Mathurin was selected sixth overall in 2022 and has developed into a fully capable scorer with a keen sense for drawing fouls. Later in that same draft, Andrew Nembhard was selected as the first pick of the second round. The 25-year-old was an older rookie, but proved good enough to warrant a three-year contract extension worth $59 million, which he signed last summer. The contract will go into full effect this July. Just days after selecting Mathurin and Nembhard, the Pacers made a trade with the Boston Celtics in which they forked over veteran guard Malcolm Brogdon in a deal to acquire Aaron Nesmith, who has now become a high-end two-way starter. In 2023, the Pacers extended Nesmith with a deal that ranks among the best in the NBA at three years and $33 million. Advertisement Also in 2023, the Pacers traded for Knicks forward Obi Toppin, a former lottery selection, giving up only two second-round selections. The 27-year-old is now one of the most potent bench scorers on the team. Maximizing their value It's difficult to find many flaws with how the Pacers have constructed this team. They didn't hit obvious home runs on every roster decision, but they did move forward, ever so slightly, with every move and within their timeline. Essentially, they were just rock solid in how they built this team. They took swings, yes, but also took safer routes more times than not. Advertisement Additionally, it's how they've dealt with their acquisitions post-trade that has been enormously impressive. Nesmith is one of the best deals in the league. Turner is a free agent this summer, but he's been a bargain for years now. Even Toppin, who is on a fairly large deal with another $45 million remaining after this year, is productive and can be moved if needed. And while this team will get expensive in the future — to the point where it likely will have to enter luxury-tax territory — you can still make the argument that not a single contract on its cap sheet is considered a bad asset. The Pacers haven't been flashy, but they've been about as stellar as any team could hope to be, and as a direct result of their efforts, they now find themselves in the NBA Finals.
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Karl Anthony Towns' New Teammates Turn on Him After Playoff Exit
Just before the Minnesota Timberwolves started their 2024-25 NBA season, president Tim Connelly made big waves, trading Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and draft pick compensation. Interestingly enough, both the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves made it all the way to the Conference Finals, before falling short. The Knicks lost in six games to the Indiana Pacers. The Wolves in five games to the OKC Thunder. Advertisement As was the case during his time in Minnesota, Towns has been a controversial player in the Big Apple. Some love KAT, others can't stand him. An immensely talented basketball player, Karl-Anthony Towns' flaws have been consistent and constant for most of his career. New York Knicks annoyed with Karl-Anthony Towns On offense, Karl-Anthony Towns is capable of scoring at every level. He's one of the best shooting big men in NBA history. On the other side, KAT's constant whining to officials and inconsistencies on defense have continued to haunt him. It didn't take long for New York Knicks fans to grow tired of Karl's mannerisms and defensive deficiencies. But according to recent reports, his teammates weren't impressed with what they saw either. James Edwards and Fred Katz outlined the reality in a recent report for The Athletic. 'Publicly, Knicks players made veiled comments all season about poor communication causing their inconsistencies. Behind the scenes, they and coaches expressed frustration with Towns' defensive habits — less concerned with his talent level and more with his process on that end. Too often, Towns executed incorrect coverages without communicating why he did it. After it became a theme, players worried Towns didn't grasp the importance of the matter.' The Athletic Advertisement In two of the four losses against Indiana, Towns posted plus-minus numbers of -20 and -17. It's an imperfect statistic on a single-game level, but defensive breakdowns and an inability to stop the Pacers scoring threats were evident for the New York big man. It's that effort, or lack thereof, that quickly lends itself to finger pointing. Towns did post a better 24.4 points per game this season, and his .42% three-point shooting was the second highest tally of his career. The effort and efficiency on the defensive end nullifies that performance in the locker room. Early trouble for Karl-Anthony Towns in New York It remains to be seen how the Knicks will build moving forward. They came up just short against the Indiana Pacers and won 51 games this season. Karl-Anthony Towns was a part of that, but could also quickly be seen as a problem. A trade of Towns is an eyebrow-raising suggestion from NBA Insider Kevin O'Connor. It's not that outlandish though. He is a tough player to build around, and there are major questions surrounding his ability to be a major contributor on an NBA Finals caliber team. Advertisement Head coach Tom Thibodeau already knew that from his time with the Minnesota Timberwolves though, so he must believe. For Towns to actually be moved, an acquiring team would need to swallow cap hits of $53 and $57 million the next two seasons. He also has a $61 million player option for the 2027-28 season, when he'll be 32 years old. Related: Orlando Magic Could Target Minnesota Timberwolves Guard These are the warts New York was going to take on with Towns when moving Randle and DiVincenzo. Minnesota has decisions to make on the players they brought in, but they are substantially less financially and motivationally impactful than what Towns has served up for the Knicks. Related Headlines
