Buy Ambuja Cements, target price Rs 635: JM Financial
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JM Financial has maintained the buy call on Ambuja Cements with an unchanged target price of Rs 635. The current market price of Ambuja Cements is Rs 538.45. Time period given by the analyst is a year when Ambuja Cements price can reach the defined target.Ambuja Cements' consolidated volume grew by 13% YoY and QoQ to 18.7 mt. Blended realisation (including RMX) declined 1% YoY; however, it increased 3% QoQ.EBITDA/tn declined 2% YoY/ increased 86% QoQ to INR 1,001 (+Rs 464/tn sequentially). Total cost/tn declined 1% YoY/ 7% QoQ to Rs 4,299, the managementhas targeted cost/tn of around Rs 3,650/tn by FY28. Cash & cash equivalents declined Rs 58.7 billion YoY while it increased Rs 13.7 billion QoQ to Rs 101 billion as of Mar?25. Volumes of Penna/Sanghi together stand at 1.6mt for 4QFY25. Excluding the same, LFL volume growth for Ambuja was sub-5% YoY.Ambuja Cements' consolidated EBITDA increased 10% YoY/ 2.1x QoQ to Rs 18.7 billion, 10-13% above our and consensus estimates owing to better-than-expected realisation and lower cost/tn. Blended EBITDA/tn declined 2% YoY/ increased by 86% QoQ to Rs 1,001 (JMFe: Rs 890). Consolidated volume grew 13% YoY and QoQ to 18.7mt. The company?s capacity crossed 100 mt in 4Q, and it aims to increase it to 118mt/140mt by FY26/FY28 respectively. Factoring in a better pricing scenario, JM Financial has increased its EBITDA estimates by 3% for FY26, and maintains its estimates for FY27. The brokerage maintains a BUY rating on the stock with unchanged target price of Rs 635/share based on 18x FY27 EV/E. Thwy like the company's dominant market position, pan-India presence, and industry leading volume growth, further supported by a strong balance sheet. Within the group, our preference remains Ambuja>ACC given higher growth visibility.Promoters held 67.57 per cent stake in the company as of 31-Mar-2025, while FIIs owned 8.6 per cent, DIIs 17.09 per cent.
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