Bolsonaro's Plan to Stage a Trumpian Comeback Might Save Lula's Presidency
Jair Bolsonaro's insistence he can pull off a Donald Trump-like comeback in Brazil's looming election has paralyzed his fervent right-wing movement, effectively blocking the search for a successor to the ineligible former president.
Unable to run thanks to an eight-year political ban and facing charges that he attempted a coup after the 2022 vote, Bolsonaro is nevertheless clinging to control over the future of the Brazilian right. Pointing to polls that show him as the strongest candidate, he describes himself as victim of political persecution.
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Los Angeles Times
8 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
What ‘China shock'? Trade didn't wreck the U.S. economy
When Donald Trump first campaigned in 2016, he capitalized on a potent narrative: that China's rise gutted American manufacturing, leaving countless blue-collar communities devastated. Known now as the 'China shock,' that idea paved the way for a dramatic resurgence in protectionism, culminating in sweeping tariffs including Trump's controversial 'Liberation Day' duties. Yet we continue to learn just how shaky the theory's foundations are. Pioneered by economists David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson, the China shock trope suggests that American regions heavily exposed to Chinese imports suffered significantly greater job losses than did less-exposed areas. Populists seized upon it to argue that China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization caused millions of job losses in the U.S. and social disintegration. But a theory's easy and outsized application to policy does not settle questions about its accuracy. That's what American Enterprise Institute scholar Scott Winship wanted to determine in a recent comprehensive review that set out to prove whether the China shock reduced American manufacturing employment. By examining alternative studies and methodological adjustments, Winship contends that the negative effects of trade with China have been significantly exaggerated and that populist narratives blaming this trade for U.S. economic decline aren't supported by rigorous evidence. The originators of China shock examined how Chinese imports affected certain U.S. locales compared with others — not with the entire country — based on initial industry composition and employment size. By these metrics, areas heavily exposed to Chinese imports showed disproportionately worse manufacturing job losses. However, Winship points out that even if we accept these estimates, the findings suggest only relatively modest employment effects. To put things in perspective, Winship gives the example of two hypothetical commuting zones with 200,000 working-age residents and 20,000 manufacturing workers. Data from the theory's proponents indicate that moving from low (10th percentile) to high (90th percentile) exposure to Chinese imports would result in a loss of roughly 2,700 manufacturing jobs — just a 1.4 percentage point drop in overall manufacturing employment. While significant, this does not convincingly explain the community decline, social disruption, and populist backlash often blamed specifically on Chinese trade. In addition, Winship flags multiple methodological issues. Once other economists revised the proponents' methods, the estimated negative impact shrank dramatically. Various follow-up studies found the China shock effect on manufacturing employment to be 50% smaller than initially claimed. Further research revealed that job losses in exposed areas were often offset or even outweighed by employment gains in other sectors. One detailed Census Bureau study even found that firms with greater Chinese import exposure increased manufacturing employment, reallocating jobs to more efficient domestic production lines enabled by cheaper imports. Moreover, the steady decline in U.S. manufacturing employment began decades before China's WTO entry. Between the late 1970s and 2000, factory employment had already decreased substantially, mostly because of technological advances and shifting consumer demand. Notably, there was no sudden acceleration of this decline after China joined the WTO. The rate of manufacturing job losses remained consistent with earlier trends, undermining claims that Chinese trade uniquely devastated American manufacturing. Furthermore, former manufacturing workers generally did not face permanent unemployment. In fact, unemployment rates among this group were lower in recent years compared to the late 1990s, before the peak of Chinese imports. Many workers transitioned successfully into other sectors, belying the notion of an enduring displacement crisis. It's also worth noting that there are around a half of a million unfilled manufacturing jobs today. Despite these realities, the exaggerated narrative persists as a political force. Trump's tariffs — taxes on American consumers raising prices on everyday goods from cars to clothing — have greatly increased economic uncertainty. American manufacturers reliant on imported components face higher input costs, dampening their competitiveness and causing unintended layoffs. In fact, evidence from Trump's first term showed that his tariffs often hurt American firms more than their foreign competitors. With broader and higher tariffs, we can only fear the worst. Instead of doubling down on tariffs and isolation, we need to empower U.S. workers to adapt to economic changes, whether caused by trade or economic downturn. Economists have shown that to the extent that workers sometimes don't recover from shocks, it tends to be a failure to adjust because of obstacles erected by government. Winship's critical reassessment of the China shock clarifies the actual, limited role Chinese imports have played in manufacturing-employment trends. The real 'shock' America faces in 2025 is not from Chinese imports, but from a resurgence of misguided protectionism based on a misdiagnosed problem. The path forward harnesses trade's real benefits rather than chasing economic illusions. Veronique de Rugy is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. This article was produced in collaboration with Creators Syndicate.
USA Today
9 minutes ago
- USA Today
Where is Trump's military parade taking place? See route, map
Where is Trump's military parade taking place? See route, map Show Caption Hide Caption White House plans parade for Trump's bday, Army's 250th anniversary The White House is planning a massive military parade to celebrate the Army's 250th anniversary and President Donald Trump's 79th birthday. President Donald Trump is getting the military parade he's long wanted this year, as the U.S. Army plans to mark its 250th anniversary with a pomp-filled procession through the streets of the nation's capital, a date coinciding with the president's birthday. "The event is designed not only to showcase the Army's modern capabilities but also to inspire a new generation to embrace the spirit of service, resilience, and leadership that defines the United States," according to a May 21 statement on event organizer's website. "The parade will trace the Army's evolution from the Revolutionary War through to the U.S. Army of Tomorrow." Here's what to know about the parade's route and when it takes place. When and where is the military parade? The military parade is slated for Saturday, June 14, in the heart of Washington, D.C., spanning six blocks and bisecting the National Mall. Celebrations and associated events are set to take place throughout the day, starting with a fitness competition at 9:30 a.m. ET, and an assortment of military demonstrations, equipment displays and live music performances throughout the day. Visitors can expect kid zones, more than 50 vendor and experience booths, and meet-and-greats with "Army soldiers, NFL players, influencers and celebrities," according to the U.S. Army event page. Army, Trump love a $40M parade. But nothing is planned for Navy, Marines. What does the parade commemorate? On June 14, 1775, the Second Continental Congress voted to establish the Continental Army, organizers say, marking the creation of America's first national military force more than a year before the Declaration of Independence. Trump, US Army throwing military parade: How to get tickets Where does the Grand Military Parade start and end? The parade will take place along Constitution Avenue NW, starting at 15th Street alongside the National Mall, near the National Museum of African American History and Culture. The procession will begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, cutting through the mall between the Washington Monument and German-American Friendship Garden on one side and the long grassy expanse of President's Park in front of the White House on the other. The parade will cross in front of Trump's viewing stand on Constitution Avenue south of the White House at about 6 p.m. It will continue in the direction of the Lincoln Memorial, passing by Constitution Gardens and the Vietnam Veterans Memorial before ending at 7:30 p.m. ET on Constitution Avenue NW and 23rd Street. A concert at the Ellipse is scheduled to start when the parade ends, and Army officials say a firework display will begin at 9:45 p.m. ET. Contributing: George Petras and Janet Loehrke, USA TODAY. Kathryn Palmer is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach her at kapalmer@ and on X @KathrynPlmr.
Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Where is Trump's military parade taking place? See route, map
President Donald Trump is getting the military parade he's long wanted this year, as the U.S. Army plans to mark its 250th anniversary with a pomp-filled procession through the streets of the nation's capital, a date coinciding with the president's birthday. "The event is designed not only to showcase the Army's modern capabilities but also to inspire a new generation to embrace the spirit of service, resilience, and leadership that defines the United States," according to a May 21 statement on event organizer's website. "The parade will trace the Army's evolution from the Revolutionary War through to the U.S. Army of Tomorrow." Here's what to know about the parade's route and when it takes place. The military parade is slated for Saturday, June 14, in the heart of Washington, D.C., spanning six blocks and bisecting the National Mall. Celebrations and associated events are set to take place throughout the day, starting with a fitness competition at 9:30 a.m. ET, and an assortment of military demonstrations, equipment displays and live music performances throughout the day. Visitors can expect kid zones, more than 50 vendor and experience booths, and meet-and-greats with "Army soldiers, NFL players, influencers and celebrities," according to the U.S. Army event page. Army, Trump love a $40M parade. But nothing is planned for Navy, Marines. On June 14, 1775, the Second Continental Congress voted to establish the Continental Army, organizers say, marking the creation of America's first national military force more than a year before the Declaration of Independence. Trump, US Army throwing military parade: How to get tickets The parade will take place along Constitution Avenue NW, starting at 15th Street alongside the National Mall, near the National Museum of African American History and Culture. The procession will begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, cutting through the mall between the Washington Monument and German-American Friendship Garden on one side and the long grassy expanse of President's Park in front of the White House on the other. The parade will cross in front of Trump's viewing stand on Constitution Avenue south of the White House at about 6 p.m. It will continue in the direction of the Lincoln Memorial, passing by Constitution Gardens and the Vietnam Veterans Memorial before ending at 7:30 p.m. ET on Constitution Avenue NW and 23rd Street. A concert at the Ellipse is scheduled to start when the parade ends, and Army officials say a firework display will begin at 9:45 p.m. ET. Contributing: George Petras and Janet Loehrke, USA TODAY. Kathryn Palmer is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach her at kapalmer@ and on X @KathrynPlmr. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump military parade route; See map of June 14 festivities
