Ischinger: Europe going it alone in Ukraine could be ‘the end of NATO as we know it'

Politico

05-05-2025

A post-war European peacekeeping force in Ukraine without U.S. involvement could trigger 'the de facto end of NATO,' a former top German diplomat warned.
Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to the United States and chair of the Munich Security Conference, said he would 'totally warn against a military hardware presence of European NATO troops in Ukraine' without U.S. involvement. The
U.K. and France have proposed
in recent months to create a Europe-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine to help end the three-year war with Russia.
'I don't think that the Russians would ever, ever agree to that under any circumstances. But even if they agreed, I think we would need to insist that the United States is really involved in this,' he said in an interview with POLITICO.
Without a U.S. backstop, 'the next thing that could happen would be that the Russian side would test, and would claim that Ukrainians have started some kind of shooting war, and they need to respond to that,' he said. 'And therefore the Europeans in Ukraine would possibly be shot at, and would need to reply, to engage without the United States on their side,' he said. 'Quite frankly, that would be the end of NATO as we know it.'
'I don't think it's a good idea to allow Russia to split us up, and that would really be the de facto end of NATO,' he added.
The views from Ischinger, widely seen as one of Europe's leading thinkers on security issues, underscores a central problem in Europe's efforts to back Ukraine amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's commitments to Kyiv's fight against Russia and the future of NATO — namely that Russia doesn't view Europe as a credible military threat without the United States.
'Europe, at this moment, is not capable of defending itself,' Ischinger said.
After months of negotiations roiled in drama, the Trump administration and Ukraine signed an economic cooperation deal on April 30 that would give the U.S. access to the country's mineral resources in exchange for ongoing U.S. funding for Ukraine.
The deal was seen as a positive sign of Washington and Kyiv repairing their ties following tense meetings between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February. Last week, the State Department approved a possible weapons sale of F-16 fighter jet training and sustainment to Ukraine — the first major proposed deal since the Trump administration came into office.
But the minerals deal stopped short of offering hard security guarantees to Ukraine. Trump and his envoy engaging with the Russians, Steve Witkoff, have also floated a peace proposal that would freeze the conflict along current battle lines — giving Russia significant territorial concessions — and potentially bar Ukraine from joining NATO. So far
Russia has rejected the Trump administration's overtures
and
ramped up attacks
on Ukraine. Leading Republican allies of Trump on Capitol Hill are pushing to increase sanctions on Russia if it continues to reject peace plans.
Ischinger and dozens of other top transatlantic security officials are descending on Washington this week to meet with senior American administration officials on Ukraine and other challenges in closed-door meetings arranged by the Munich Security Conference.
Trump's questionable commitment to backing NATO and Ukraine — coupled with other provocative moves like slapping steep tariffs on allies and openly musing about acquiring Greenland from Denmark — has alarmed European leaders.
'I strongly believe that what has happened over the last 100 days or so has actually provided a kind of an electric shock to European decision makers,' Ischinger said. 'We understand now that, in fact, we need to stand on our own feet much, much more, both in terms of military capabilities but also in terms of political strategy,' he said.
Still, Ischinger said that at some point he believes the Trump administration will learn that it needs Europe's help on thorny national security issues like the war in Ukraine or nuclear negotiations with Iran. 'Has this approach of simply sidelining Europe, not talking to Europe, talking to Russia about Ukraine without Europe, talking to Tehran about the nuclear issue without Europe, has this led to any visible success? Not that I can tell.'
'I think that the United States will sooner or later come to grips with this and reengage with Europe again,' he said.