NASCAR Cup Series at Bristol odds, predictions: Can Denny Hamlin get three straight? Will tire-wear bring strategy and chaos?

New York Times

12-04-2025

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway — the track most lately infamous for last year's mysterious tire-wear race. Kyle Larson is favored to win, but Denny Hamlin could have some extra motivation to extend his current winning streak to three, and, of course, there's a field stacked with top drivers looking for their first win of the year.
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As we do every week, we're bringing our latest NASCAR-related questions to our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. This week, they're answering questions about all the legal cases swirling, how 'Throwback Weekend' could be improved, whether NASCAR has responded strongly enough to the Xfinity debacle at Martinsville, tire-wear questions ahead of Bristol and more.
Take it away, guys!
Following NASCAR is starting to feel like watching a courtroom drama. Can you break down for us quickly all the suits and countersuits and restraining orders happening between teams and the league? And tell us how you think it could affect the season or the future of NASCAR? (To start with a softball question…)
Jeff: It's certainly understandable why it feels that way, between 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports' antitrust lawsuit against NASCAR — and all the various developments with that — plus Legacy Motor Club suing Rick Ware Racing over a charter and then even Lamar Jackson contesting Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s trademark claim to a stylized No. 8. But while it may seem overwhelming, most of the discussions revolve around the frequent headlines on the antitrust lawsuit — which is quite serious and probably the single most important legal matter to hit NASCAR in a long time. Depending on what happens with that, it really could change the future of the sport, although it's always difficult to predict what could be the outcome of an antitrust case. For example, imagine trying to predict the fallout from the NCAA's antitrust settlement beforehand, with the impact of NIL deals and all of that. We'll just have to see how it all plays out, but the biggest headlines may be still to come.
Jordan: The only guarantee out of all this is that lawyers are getting paid. Billable hours remain undefeated. As for the long-term implications, it's too early to know definitively. It certainly seems that with Legacy willing to pay RWR $45 million for its charter, according to sources, the cost to purchase a charter has risen considerably and is expected only to continue to climb. This sport has taken on a much different complexion in recent years, and this is just the latest example.
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Let's go easy: If someone hosts a Halloween party and only half of the guests show up in costume, is it still worth having a themed event? Ha! That was a trick; you opened your Darlington recap with that question as a lead-in to asking whether 'Throwback Weekend' should be retired. Maybe my real question — for you and for readers — is: Any other ideas for honoring the nostalgia of a throwback weekend without turning it into a fight for branding space on the cars?
Jeff: Bringing out every generation of NASCAR stock cars to take laps around the track, hosting a NASCAR memorabilia collectibles show and inviting even more old-school drivers for a 'Legends Day'-type event are ideas I've seen used to great success at the Indy 500 every year. Nostalgia is one of the most popular topics with NASCAR fans when it comes to drivers, cars, rules and playoff formats, so why not continue to push in that area? It would be nice if every team ran a throwback paint scheme, but a 'heritage weekend' could be about much more than just the look of the cars.
Jordan: I second incorporating all the ideas Jeff notes above, but here is another suggestion to enhance the weekend: Move the NASCAR Hall of Fame ceremony from its current spot in late January or early February, where it's too frequently overlooked, to an evening in the lead-up to Darlington. Doing so would not only make it significantly easier for active drivers, crew chiefs and other industry people to attend, but also draw more attention to what is supposed to be a celebration of the sport's past. Invite the newest inductees to be race dignitaries, blow out the weekend by going full-on nostalgia, and suddenly, Throwback Weekend again becomes one of the most anticipated race weekends on the calendar.
In Jeff's 12 Questions with William Byron, Byron pointed out that a lot of people don't necessarily realize how difficult the sport is. What are some of the best analogies or descriptions you've heard from drivers that help illustrate just how hard it is?
Jeff: I actually thought what Byron went on to say in that interview was a very impactful way to describe it: 'You're literally fighting the car on the edge, like if you were driving on ice.' Imagine basically being on the verge of spinning out and crashing into a wall while attempting to go as fast as possible — all with 35 other cars racing around you trying to do the same thing. One of the flaws of NASCAR TV broadcasts has always been how they fail to capture the sensation of speed, whereas being at the racetrack can be a jaw-dropper in terms of what these drivers are actually doing. When you combine that speed with having to wrestle their cars for three or four hours inside sweltering cockpits while wearing firesuits and helmets, it's a pretty impressive feat.
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Jordan: The physical toll drivers endure needs to be spotlighted more. How to best explain this to a viewer at home has always been the challenge, but if it could be figured out, it could certainly better put into perspective just how difficult it is to be a race-winning driver at the highest level.
Last week, we touched on the Xfinity mess at Martinsville and how it looks like NASCAR needs to figure out a way to curb some of the aggressive driving that Xfinity's pay-to-play model has encouraged lately. From what you're hearing coming out of last Saturday's meeting, is NASCAR doing enough?
Jeff: NASCAR doesn't want to get involved down to a micro level on when to call penalties, so the officials' message is often similar to a parent: 'Don't make us come down there!' But in this case, there needs to be some action behind the words, or the child will continue to push the limits and get away with it. It remains to be seen if NASCAR's latest threats will have an impact on the Xfinity Series drivers, but we might not truly know until the next Martinsville race in October. Other than that, Xfinity doesn't typically see the sort of debacle we saw recently.
Jordan: While NASCAR laying into drivers last weekend was needed, the reality is that when the series returns to Martinsville in the fall for a semifinal-round elimination playoff race, NASCAR needs to hold a similar meeting and make it clear what behavior is acceptable and not acceptable. Reinforce what was said last weekend, but then follow it up by officiating the race in a hard manner where nothing over the line is tolerated.
What's up with the tires this week? Last spring was one of the most bizarre races ever, with a tire that wore out super fast, but then the fall race was the total opposite. What gives?
Jeff: It's still a mystery! Goodyear insists it brought the exact same tire for both races, except the rubber behaved completely differently. Was it temperature? Eh, maybe? But Goodyear, NASCAR and the race teams all went back in September after expecting to see a somewhat similar race to the spring — with high tire wear again — and it didn't happen at all. Most drivers think this will be a typical Bristol race instead of the wild one we saw at this time last year.
Jordan: (Insert shrug emoji) Honestly, no one really knows what's going to happen with the tires on Sunday. It's all guesswork at this point. (Insert more shrug emojis)
Denny Hamlin won that unpredictable tire-wear race at Bristol last spring. Could he get three in a row after his 31-race winless streak? Is he racing any differently?
Jeff: Hamlin could definitely win three races in a row, as he's second among active drivers with four Bristol victories. He leads all drivers with victories on short tracks in the Next Gen car. But it's extremely difficult to win three straight, even though Hamlin's teammate, Christopher Bell, did it recently. Thinking we could see two drivers go back-to-back-to-back within the first nine races of the season seems pretty hard to believe, but Hamlin's Bristol prowess certainly makes it possible.
Jordan: Considering Hamlin has won two of the past three Bristol races, yeah, he has a good chance to run his winning streak up to three on Sunday. And especially so if tire wear is a thing on Sunday, as Hamlin is one of the very best at managing his tires.
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OK, let's hear some predictions for who wins this Sunday.
Jeff: Not to be boring, but it's going to be tough to beat race favorite Kyle Larson this week. In September on this same tire, he led 462 of the 500 laps at Bristol in a complete smackdown of the field and won by more than seven seconds. Seven! At a half-mile track! It wasn't even close. If he qualifies well on Saturday and sets himself up with good track position for Sunday's race, it would be easy to see him do it again.
Jordan: Picking either Larson or Hamlin is the safe bet, as both feel like they're a level above everyone else here.
Any long shots looking promising this week?
Jeff: I wouldn't go any lower than the drivers listed at +3000 this week because Bristol isn't typically a track for upset winners. I could see sprinkling a few bucks on Josh Berry or Ryan Preece (both +3000) or perhaps 2022 winner Chris Buescher (+2500). But any lower than that seems like a waste, as, unfortunately, oddsmakers have already priced in some of the potential upset picks. (Ty Gibbs, for example, would have been an excellent long shot, except he has the seventh-best odds at +1600. Boo.)
Jordan: That 23XI Racing teammates Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace are listed at +3000 is eye-catching. Pretty good value for two drivers who've had a strong start to the season and with Bristol a style of track that fits their respective skillset. Also worth noting that Wallace finished third here last fall.
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(Photo of Denny Hamlin: James Gilbert / Getty Images)