Will India And Pakistan Go To War?
TOPSHOT - Indian Air Force recruits perform a drill during the presentation of the Indian ... More President's Standards and Colours, by Indian President Ram Nath Kovind at Borjhar Air Force Station in Guwahati on November 29, 2018. (Photo by Biju BORO / AFP) (Photo by BIJU BORO/AFP via Getty Images)
I vividly recall seeing Imran Khan give a speech in the mid-nineties, in an era where many sportsmen had what was described as colourful backgrounds he stood out as particularly 'Bond' like – at the very top of his game as a cricketer and a 'playboy', as the saying goes (at the time he was engaged to Jemima Goldsmith). There are few people who have had such adventurous lives – and Khan's is interesting for the ways in which he changed tack – towards Islam and politics (he served as Pakistani prime minister from 2018-2022) and his change of fortune (he is currently in solitary confinement in a Pakistani prison).
Whilst Khan's rise and fall is complex, he ultimately fell foul of the Pakistani security establishment who allegedly became uncomfortable when Khan condemned foreign (US) influence in Pakistani public life. Khan was also the victim of an assassination attempt in 2022, something that has marked Pakistani politics (Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in 2007 and her father Zulfikar was executed in 1977).
In this regard one of the few constants in Pakistani politics has been the ever-present role of the security services in the affairs of the state, and specifically their tactic of creating private armies and terror groups. This has embarrassed them on at least two occasions - the discovery that Osama bin Laden was living in near plain sight in Pakistan and repeated attacks by the Taliban inside Pakistan. Add to that the 2008 Mumbai attacks perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the sense grows that Pakistan has been playing a dangerous game.
In this regard, India's response to the killing of 26 people in Pahalgam (in Indian controlled Kashmir) took aim, it said, at terrorist infrastructure, in the most serious escalation between the two countries since the very early 1970's. The subject of this note is not to predict how this conflict will play out – it could be costly, bloody and messy (India has reportedly lost five jets in its initial sortie) but to wonder why this confrontation is happening now and how much of this has to do with the alliances that the two countries have struck.
While India and Pakistan are both members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Pakistan is the much more active member and very close to China, Iran and Russia. While a lot of Indian hardware comes from Russia, its foreign policy projects the country as an independent actor, India is aiming for a close relationship with the US with whom it may sign a very high level trade deal (it has just completed a modest trade agreement with the UK).
It is very likely that in a different diplomatic regime the Pahalgam attack would have been met with intensive diplomatic engagement by the US, with India whom it regards as an ally and Pakistan, which it funds generously. This has not happened this time, and the tempo of involvement of the White House in this particular regional conflict has not been on a par with other administrations. It is so poor that vice president Vance has declared, in a most un-Kissinger like manner, that 'it is none of our business'.
Indeed the recent death of Joseph Nye, the political scientist who developed the term 'soft power' and who wrote much about America's engagement with the rest of the world is a reminder that one of the key elements in the old, globalised world order was America's role as a policeman – with a near monopoly over deadly force and a very active, alert diplomatic corps.
An example of this can be found in Brad Hope and Justin Scheck's book 'Blood & Oil' that describes the rise of Mohammed bin Salman as the ruler of Saudi Arabia. For decades the US has steered Saudi diplomacy, and Saudi rulers have guided America in the region. However, the book describes in some detail the lack of strategic direction of the first Trump administration in the military and diplomatic affairs of Saudi Arabia, beyond the organisation of a lavish welcome ceremony for a Trump visit to the Kingdom.
The second Trump administration looks set to entirely do away the role of world policeman, and cynics might say, replace it with the role for rent collector. As such, the geopolitical risk premium will rise, and may help to explain why there are at least two conflicts where basic needs (water) are being weaponised (in Gaza and India/Pakistan). When it played the role of world policeman, the US kept the peace, much to its own advantage.
Now in the context of the very obvious dropping of moral guardrails around international relations, other countries will be less bound by a sense of world order, emboldened by an arms race, and will start to take risks and make mistakes. India-Pakistan is a very dangerous case of this, and one that draws into focus the trade-off between the cost to America's role as world policeman, and the global 'peace' dividend it brought.
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