2025 NBA Finals: Pacers-Thunder predictions, key matchups to watch in roundtable preview

NBC Sports

2 days ago

With Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers scheduled to tip off Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET., we've gathered Kurt Helin, Raphielle Johnson, and Noah Rubin to break down the important questions and the matchups to watch during the series, as well as their predictions on how the 2025 NBA Finals will play out.
Kurt Helin,
Noah Rubin: Can they? Potentially. Will they? I'm not banking on it. To be clear, this isn't a knock on Indiana's offense, which has been incredible since Tyrese Haliburton was handed the keys to the offense. They play team basketball, and everyone is a threat. However, this is one of the best defenses in league history. They have multiple guards, multiple forwards and multiple bigs that can guard multiple positions. This is a defense that works and fits together, and there aren't any weak links to pick on. If anyone can figure it out, it will probably be Rick Carlisle and Haliburton, but I don't think it's going to be enough to win this series.
Raphielle Johnson: The Pacers can potentially break through against the Thunder defense, but this will be a challenge unlike any they've faced this postseason. In addition to their depth, the Thunder, for the most part, have looked extremely connected on that end of the floor. Luguentz Dort's physicality will be a challenge for Tyrese Haliburton, and then Oklahoma City can call on Cason Wallace whenever he needs a break. What I'm also looking forward to is how the Thunder use Alex Caruso. In the conference finals, they were able to go small for long stretches due to his ability to handle a variety of assignments.
Kurt Helin: No. Or, at least not enough to win the series. The Pacers have a fantastic offense and Tyrese Haliburton deserves all the flowers coming his way in recent days, plus Indy has generally handled pressure defenses well (Game 5 vs. New York excluded). It's just different with the quality of defenders the Thunder bring. Here's the bigger issue: OKC may be the best switching defense in the league. The Pacers like to force a switch with a high pick early in the offense to get Haliburton matched up on the guy he wants to attack (sorry Brunson), and to get defenses in rotation when he does get downhill. The Thunder, however, can and will switch just about anything 1-5 and don't have a weak defender on the floor, plus their rotations are sharper than anyone else's.
Rubin: Jalen Williams vs. Aaron Nesmith. During the regular season, Andrew Nembhard took the SGA matchup on defense, and Nesmith guarded Williams, who had an excellent series against Minnesota. Williams wasn't as effective against Denver, and the Nuggets were nearly able to win the series. The one game OKC dropped against the Timberwolves was Williams' worst performance of the series. Slowing down SGA is a tall task, but if Nesmith is able to take Williams out of the equation, the Pacers will have a better chance at winning this series.
Johnson: Myles Turner vs. Chet Holmgren. The Pacers won't win this series without Turner consistently being one of the best players on the floor. He was not in the two regular-season meetings between these teams, and Holmgren did not play in either matchup due to his fractured hip. Turner brings a little more power to the table than the slender Holmgren, but he doesn't always bring that physicality. He didn't have the best conference finals, but the Pacers were good enough in other areas to compensate. They can't afford for Turner to be anything but elite if they're to win the title.
Helin: Luguentz Dort vs. Tyrese Haliburton. What we saw in Game 5 vs. New York is something we saw too much of from Haliburton early in the season, when Indiana got off to a slow start: Put a physical, athletic, ball-denying defender on Haliburton and he was too willing to go into a shell and let his teammates essentially play 4-on-4. That didn't work, Haliburton stepped up his aggressiveness in those settings and the Pacers did a better job of off-ball picks and more to get Haliburton the rock. The Pacers' balanced offense doesn't work if Haliburton isn't conducting the orchestra. Nobody frustrates a point guard, and nobody in the league gets over picks as well as Dort, and if he is making Haliburton's life miserable, then Indiana's going to have a miserable, short, series.
Rubin: Pascal Siakam. Three-time All-Star. Two All-NBA appearances. The 2018-19 Most Improved Player. Now, Siakam could add a second ring to his collection, and after winning the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, there is certainly a chance he wins Finals MVP, if they win the series. Basketball Reference currently has Siakam at a 2.1 percent chance of making the Hall of Fame, but will he have more of a case with another ring? I don't think he would if he retired this summer, but his resume would certainly be strengthened.
Johnson: Sam Presti. He's already regarded by many as the best lead executive in the NBA today, given what he's done to build the Thunder into a juggernaut that is set up to last. There's just one thing missing from his time in Oklahoma City, and that's a championship. While the 'legacy' conversation focuses on the players, and rightfully so, the respective rotations are pretty young. That doesn't guarantee them more shots at a championship, but I don't think any player will have to deal with the 'legacy' chatter that a LeBron James, for example, did after he moved to Miami. So, I'll go with Presti as my answer.
Helin: Rick Carlisle. This run to the Finals may have done it anyway. Within league circles he was always considered one of the best Xs and Os guys out there — going all the way back to his time on Chuck Daly's Nets' staff — but there was a sense among more casual fans that he was a coach who lucked into an NBA Finals win because of Dirk Nowitzki (the way that Frank Vogel's title is viewed by many now, and some might even through Doc Rivers in that mix). It was never true, and Carlisle leading this team to the Finals in a very different style than his previous one shows his versatility and evolution as a coach.
Rubin: Thunder in five, with SGA taking the honors. If I was getting overly specific with my prediction, it would be that the Thunder win one game in a blowout, but the rest of the games in this series will be tight. I just don't think the miraculous run from Indiana will result in a championship. SGA will be the best player on the floor, and the Thunder are deeper, which is saying a lot since the Pacers are also a deep team. Indiana may have a slight coaching advantage, but this is a matchup of two elite coaches. I think this will be a close, exciting series, but I just don't think the Pacers will end up winning more than one game.
Johnson: I like the Thunder in six games, and Gilgeous-Alexander wins MVP. These have been the two best teams in the NBA since January 1, with Oklahoma City being the best throughout the season. They can match Indiana's strengths, and I have my questions about how effective they'll be defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Indiana will put up a great fight and win a few games, but Oklahoma City has been the best team in the NBA all season long, and I expect them to get the title to back up that claim.
Helin: Thunder in five, and if there is one lock coming into these NBA Finals it would be SGA to win MVP. Indiana has a team built for the modern game and tax apron world, a fun style of play with Haliburton out in front but quality players perfect for their roles such as Siakam, Turner and Nembhard. The Pacers' problem is that they want to play a fast, chaotic game, and Oklahoma City does that better. Haliburton is brilliant but Gilgeous-Alexander is better. Turner is having a great playoff run (well-timed for a guy getting a new contract) but Chet Holmgren is better. Indiana's defense is improved, the Thunder's is suffocating. You get the idea. OKC is just a better version of what Indiana has become.