"A sweep or a close series" - Shaquille O'Neal explains why the Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals is so difficult to predict

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"A sweep or a close series" - Shaquille O'Neal explains why the Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals is so difficult to predict originally appeared on Basketball Network.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers are gearing up to battle it out in the NBA Finals. Each squad is determined to make history by taking the Larry O'Brien trophy home for the first time. Game one tips off tonight in Oklahoma City and the series predictions are coming in from all angles.
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Shaquille O'Neal, one of the most dominant centers the game has ever seen, has been a key player in six NBA Finals throughout his career so his perspective is especially valuable. Despite his expertise, even "The Big Aristotle" is unsure about how this series will play out, though he gives a slight edge to the Thunder.
A very Shaq-like prediction
On the 'New Heights' podcast, hosted by Superbowl-winning brothers Jason and Travis Kelce, Shaq was asked for his Finals prediction. Shaq responded in a characteristically vague manner, saying, "I think it's going to be a very interesting Finals. I think it'll be a sweep or a close series or OKC win 4-2."
The four-time NBA champion isn't counting the Pacers out partly because they surprised him in the Eastern Conference Finals. O'Neal added, "You know, you're starting off at Madison Square Garden. You're never going to win there. And they pull it off, and they win. I think it's going to be very exciting." Moreover, both teams have the same record in the playoffs, 12-4, so the series may be less lopsided than people think.
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Like the vast majority of analysts, "The Diesel" believes that Oklahoma City is the favorite to win it. On the other hand, the Indiana Pacers have surpassed nearly everyone's expectations from them this season.
The Pacers are coached by Rick Carlisle, who pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NBA Finals history when he led the Dallas Mavericks to their first championship in 2011 against the mighty Big Three era Miami Heat. This time, however, neither finalist is a 'superteam,' and it may come down to how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton's supporting casts perform.
Related: Jalen Williams opens up about small-market teams making the 2025 Finals: "I think the NBA is just naturally getting younger"
The Wildcard
According to the 7'1" former center, the outcome of the series could depend on how Jalen Williams plays and whether or not the Pacers can slow him down. "I know Tyrese is going to do his thing, Shai is going to do his thing, but J-Dub scares me. J-Dub, that mother**** can play. If he has great games, OKC by far. But if D'Anika somehow slows him down, I think they have a chance."
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Shaq makes a great point here, as the Thunder have a famously deep squad, but J-Dub, in particular, has been crucial to their success. Williams has averaged 21.6 points per game, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists this season. The 6'5" small forward earned his first All-Star selection this year, but he has been criticized for being inconsistent in the playoffs, especially in their close series against the Nuggets. Williams faltered in game six, hitting just three of his 16 shots, but he recovered his form when the Thunder needed him most in the win-or-go-home game seven, in which he scored 24 points.
The 15-time All-Star summed up his answer, saying, "I think it's going to be fun to watch. You've got two young teams that they run. They shoot threes. I think it's going to be very, very interesting." This NBA Finals is guaranteed to be a fast-paced, exciting series, and with so much young talent on the roster, it's hard to fault Shaq for not picking a side.
Related: Luc Longley on why he and Michael Jordan couldn't get along: "Mike was doing what he did to rookies, what he was doing to me"
This story was originally reported by Basketball Network on Jun 5, 2025, where it first appeared.