Hedge Funds Soured on Oil as OPEC Agreed to Bumper Supply Hike
Hedge funds turned the least bullish on Brent crude in about six months as OPEC+ agreed to a second major production increase, inflaming concerns that the extra supply could lead to a global glut.
Money managers reduced their net-long position on Brent by 12,383 lots to 97,558 lots in the week ended May 6, the lowest since October, weekly ICE Futures Europe data on futures and options show. Short-only bets against West Texas Intermediate rose by the most since March, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
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Forbes
16 minutes ago
- Forbes
New Study Reveals True AI Capabilities And Job Replacement Risk
The OECD has unveiled groundbreaking AI Capability Indicators that map artificial intelligence ... More progress against human abilities across nine key domains, revealing where AI currently stands and what's coming next. Imagine trying to navigate the digital transformation of your business using a compass that only points to "somewhere north." That's essentially what we've been doing with AI assessment until now. While tech companies have been throwing around impressive-sounding claims of superhuman performance in narrow tasks, business leaders and policymakers have been left squinting through the hype, trying to figure out what any of it actually means for the real world. The OECD has just delivered something we've desperately needed: a proper GPS system for AI capabilities. Their new AI Capability Indicators represent the most comprehensive attempt yet to create a standardized framework for understanding what AI can actually do compared to human abilities. Think of it as moving from vague headlines about "AI breakthrough" to having a detailed performance review that actually tells you something useful about real-world capabilities. Unlike the typical parade of cherry-picked benchmarks that dominate tech headlines, the OECD's approach cuts through the marketing noise. They've developed nine distinct capability scales that map AI progress against fundamental human abilities: Language, Social Interaction, Problem Solving, Creativity, Metacognition and Critical Thinking, Knowledge and Memory, Vision, Manipulation, and Robotic Intelligence. Each scale runs from Level 1 (basic, solved problems) to Level 5 (full human equivalence), with clear descriptions of what AI systems can actually accomplish at each stage. What makes this particularly helpful is how it sidesteps the technical jargon that usually makes AI assessment reports about as accessible as quantum physics textbooks. Instead of drowning in discussions of transformer architectures or neural network parameters, you get straightforward descriptions like whether an AI system can "adapt teaching methods to meet students' varying needs" or "handle objects of diverse shapes and materials in cluttered environments." The methodology behind these indicators is equally impressive. Over 50 experts across computer science and psychology spent five years developing this framework, combining rigorous academic research with practical, real-world applications. Here's where things get interesting and perhaps a bit sobering for those caught up in the AGI hype cycle. The assessment reveals that current AI systems are clustered around Levels 2 and 3 across most capabilities. We're not at the finish line; we're not even close to it. Large language models like ChatGPT score at Level 3 for language capabilities, meaning they can understand and generate semantic meaning with sophisticated knowledge, but they still struggle with analytical reasoning and have that persistent habit of confidently stating complete nonsense. It's like having a brilliant conversationalist who occasionally insists that gravity flows upward. In social interaction, even the most advanced systems barely reach Level 2. They can combine simple movements to express emotions and learn from interactions, but they're essentially sophisticated actors with no real understanding of the social dynamics they're performing. The vision capabilities tell an equally nuanced story. While AI can handle variations in lighting and target objects, performing multiple subtasks with known data variations (Level 3), it's still leagues away from the adaptable, learning-oriented visual intelligence that characterizes higher levels. For business leaders, this framework offers something really valuable: a reality check that cuts through vendor marketing speak. When a sales representative promises their AI solution will "revolutionize your operations," you can now ask pointed questions about which capability levels their system actually achieves and in which specific domains. The gap analysis between current AI capabilities and the requirements of specific business tasks becomes clearer when standardized benchmarks are in place. Consider customer service, where companies are deploying AI chatbots with the enthusiasm of gold rush prospectors. The OECD framework suggests that while AI can handle structured interactions reasonably well, anything requiring genuine social intelligence, nuanced problem-solving, or creative thinking quickly exposes current limitations. This doesn't mean AI isn't useful in customer service, but it helps set realistic expectations about what human oversight will still be necessary. It's the difference between using AI as a sophisticated tool versus expecting it to be a replacement employee. One approach leads to productivity gains; the other leads to customer complaints and public relations disasters. The framework also reveals opportunities that might not be immediately obvious. Areas where AI performs at Level 3 or higher represent genuine automation potential, while Level 2 capabilities suggest powerful augmentation opportunities. Smart businesses will use this intelligence to identify the low-hanging fruit while preparing for the longer-term implications of advancing capabilities. Perhaps nowhere are the implications more immediate and profound than in the field of education. The report's analysis of teaching capabilities reveals why educators are feeling simultaneously excited and terrified about AI's expanding role in classrooms. Many core teaching tasks require capabilities at Levels 4 and 5, particularly when it comes to adapting instruction to individual student needs or managing the complex social dynamics that make learning environments work. This creates a fascinating paradox worthy of a philosophy textbook: AI might be able to deliver standardized instruction more efficiently than humans, but the most transformational aspects of teaching, the inspiration, emotional connection, and creative problem-solving that actually change lives, remain firmly in human territory. The implications suggest we're heading toward a hybrid model that could fundamentally reshape education. AI handles routine instructional delivery, assessment, and administrative tasks, while humans focus on motivation, emotional support, creative problem-solving, and the kind of inspirational mentoring that transforms students into lifelong learners. This isn't displacement; it's specialization at a scale we've never seen before. The OECD's systematic approach provides something invaluable for strategic planning: a clear picture of what breakthrough capabilities we should be monitoring. The jump from Level 3 to Level 4 across multiple domains would represent a genuine inflection point, particularly in areas like creative problem-solving and social intelligence. What's especially revealing is how the framework illuminates the interconnectedness of different capabilities. True robotic intelligence, for instance, requires simultaneous advances across multiple domains. You can't have Level 5 robotic intelligence without corresponding progress in vision, manipulation, social interaction, and problem-solving. The framework also highlights capability areas where progress might stall or slow dramatically. Social interaction and creativity appear to have particularly steep curves between current performance and human-level capability. What the OECD has created is essentially a report card system for the AI age. Instead of being swept along by breathless predictions about artificial general intelligence arriving next week, we now have a framework for systematically tracking progress and understanding real-world implications. For businesses, this means more informed decisions about where to invest in AI capabilities and where to double down on human talent development. For policymakers, it provides a foundation for regulations and workforce planning grounded in evidence rather than science fiction. For educators, it offers a roadmap for preparing students for a world where human and artificial intelligence must work together effectively. The OECD framework isn't predicting exactly when AI will achieve human-level performance across all domains; that's still anyone's guess. Instead, it provides a common language for discussing AI capabilities and a systematic way to track progress that everyone, from CEOs to school principals, can understand and use. In a field notorious for moving fast and breaking things, having a reliable measurement system might just be what is needed.
Entrepreneur
23 minutes ago
- Entrepreneur
3 remarkable winners amid an unseen surge
Oil prices have been falling as OPEC increases production. Like Trump with trade, the cartel is looking to re-shape the chess board. Here's what investors need to know This story originally appeared on WallStreetZen The dominant story of 2025 has been President Trump using tariffs to restructure global trade. So, many investors are missing another major development as OPEC has been increasing oil production. Notably, this increase in production has come about despite already weakening oil prices. This is not an accident as OPEC is looking to increase its market share. Over the last decade, steadily rising US shale oil production has eroded OPEC's control of the market and resulted in the US becoming a net exporter of energy. WTI Crude oil started the year at around $74 per barrel and currently trades below $60 per barrel. However, shale oil production is only viable at prices above $70 per barrel. 2020 and 2014 The last two major instances of OPEC members increasing oil production were in early-2020 and 2014. And, both instances marked the beginning of multi month declines in oil prices. In 2014, WTI crude dropped from $105 per barrel in June 2014 to below $55 by the end of the year. The major impetus for this increase was the growth in US shale production which was starting to affect OPEC's market share and pricing power. In early 2020, Saudi Arabia decided to increase oil production in an effort to discipline other OPEC members who were not abiding by the cartels' production quotas. As the chart below shows, this resulted in oil prices sliding lower and eventually collapsing as the pandemic temporarily crippling oil demand. Both experiences contain important lessons for investors. 2025 In its first production surge, OPEC didn't materially cut back on supply increases until there was a material decrease in rig counts and shale production. 2020 gives us few clues, since the production surge ended quickly, once the nature and challenge of the pandemic became clear in early March. However, the biggest takeaway is that investors should not ""fight OPEC." A common adage on Wall Street is "don't fight the Fed." Essentially, this means don't be bearish when the Fed is aggressively easing or don't be overly bullish if the Fed is tightening policy. Similarly, investors should have a more risk-averse approach when investing in oil, whenever OPEC is increasing production. What Opportunities Does the OPEC Surge Create? Instead, investors should focus on the consequences of a multi month decline in oil prices, as these are where investment opportunities can be found. For instance, many airline stocks enjoyed spectacular rallies in 2014 and 2015 as lower oil prices boosted margins and profits. In 2020, many shippers enjoyed huge gains as the world was awash in excess oil which had to be stored and transported. Investors should identify stocks with strong fundamentals that have strong quantitative ratings. Then, they can narrow down this list of stocks to find the ones that will benefit from this specific catalyst. The Zen Ratings can help you screen for these stocks. For instance, investors can screen for stocks with an overall A or B rating along with strong component grades for defensive categories like Safety, Value, or Financials. Currently, there are a handful of stocks that fit this criteria. In today's article, I want to discuss 3 companies: United Airlines (UAL), CVR Partners (UAN), and Hallador Energy (HNRG). 1. United Airlines (UAL) United Airlines (UAL) is a major beneficiary of lower oil prices as it reduces costs, boosts margins, and leads to an increase in consumer spending. As oil prices dropped by more than 50% between June 2014 and February 2015, UAL's stock was up by nearly 70%. UAL also brings outstanding financials given a solid balance sheet, low debt-to-equity ratio, and a rock-bottom forward P/E of 6.6 which is significantly cheaper than the S&P 500's forward P/E of 22. The company is also well-regraded by Wall Street analysts as it has 8 Strong Buy ratings and 3 Buy ratings with no Sell or Hold ratings. It also has a consensus price target of $103 which implies 30% upside. Another indication of strong performance is that the company has topped analysts' earnings expectations for 11 straight quarters. Similarly, the Zen Ratings are also bullish on the stock as it has a Strong Buy (A) rating. A-rated stocks have an average annual performance of 32.5% which beats the S&P 500's average annual gain of 10.8%. 2. CVR Partners (UAN) CVR Partners (UAN) produces nitrogen fertilizer, providing farmers with ammonia and other products. A byproduct of reduced shale oil production will be higher natural gas prices, and fertilizer prices tend to rise with natural gas prices. Like UAL, UAN offers a strong balance sheet, low leverage ratios, and an attractive valuation with a P/E of 11. UAN also pays an 8% dividend yield and has consistently hiked dividend payouts over the last decade. While certain segments of the economy are going to lose from tariffs, agriculture is an exception. Either the administration is going to strike deals that will boost exports, or it will provide aid to farmers given their political importance as was the case during the previous trade war in 2018-2019. Given these strong fundamentals, it's not surprising that UAN is rated a Strong Buy (A). The stock has appeal to both value and growth investors. The company's recent earnings reports reveal strong cash flow. Over the last 12 months, the company generated nearly $100 million in cash which is impressive given its total market cap of $825 million. This combination ensures a margin of safety while providing exposure to positive catalysts. 3. Hallador Energy (HNRG) While UAN will benefit from higher fertilizer prices, HNRG will benefit from higher coal prices. Coal prices and natural gas prices tend to move in the same direction. Further, the Trump administration's embrace of coal also removes another major headwind for the industry which led to underperformance for most of the last decade. Essentially, coal stocks were mired in a brutal bear market from 2010 to 2020. Low natural gas prices made it less competitive. At the same time, the government was embracing environmental policies to reduce coal consumption. Now, both of these headwinds have eased, and investors are finding opportunities in the sector. Wall Street analysts are also bullish on the stock as it has 2 Strong Buy ratings and 1 Buy rating with 0 Sells or Holds. In terms of the Zen Ratings, it's rated a Buy (B). B-rated stocks have produced an average annual return of 19.5% which beats the S&P 500's average annual gain of 10.8%. The stock is also a standout in terms of component grades. Out of our universe of 4,500 stocks, it's in the top 3% for Growth. This is consistent with the company's improving outlook given increasing coal production and rising prices. Additionally, it ranks in the top 4% for Safety due to its low levels of debt, leverage, and collection of high-quality assets. What's the Endgame For OPEC's Production Uptick? While the endgame and path for Trump's trade war is unclear, the fallout and conclusion of OPEC's production surge is much more predictable. While North American energy producers are likely to struggle, commodities like natural gas, coal, and fertilizer will benefit. Another winner will be airlines as consumer spending remains strong while fuel costs decline. What to Do Next?
Entrepreneur
23 minutes ago
- Entrepreneur
Breaking the Cycle of Early Business Failure: Centida BI & Analytics on the Power of Data-Driven Planning
When organizations lack the tools to adjust plans based on shifting market realities, it doesn't matter if due to new regulations, inflation spikes, or geopolitical developments, they're planning blind You're reading Entrepreneur United Kingdom, an international franchise of Entrepreneur Media. Numerous new businesses open doors with ambition, vision, and optimism every year. Unfortunately, approximately 20% fail within the first year. Similarly, about 50% don't survive beyond five years. Cash flow issues, poor marketing, or misreading customer needs are some of the usual reasons behind this trend. However, the underlying cause can run deeper. The failure can stem from decision-making, which, in today's fast-moving environment, is impossible without data. Centida BI & Analytics, known for management consulting and strategic technology implementation, has observed why the business mortality rate is so high. Founded and led by seasoned experts, it has built a unique, integrated approach that combines business expertise and cutting-edge analytics. CEO and Managing Director Christian Barte has leveraged his over two decades in executive finance and management roles across international enterprises to inform Centida's approach. He has vast experience in unlocking business performance, from building profitability analytics systems at global telecoms to leading finance transformation initiatives at multinational corporations. With a strong educational foundation spanning business schools in Germany, France, and the United States, Barte brings a global perspective to local business challenges. His formal training in artificial intelligence (AI) and data visualization further equips him to guide clients through today's AI-powered business environment. Alongside Barte is CTO and Managing Partner Ilya Fedorkov. His background in digital transformation and data science positions him at the forefront of business intelligence (BI) innovation. His hands-on expertise in performance management, financial controlling, and enterprise-wide data strategy ensures that Centida's technical solutions are truly transformative. This leadership has enabled Centida to learn about trends in the business environment, including the reasons companies fail. The company recognizes that many of the failures revolve around the inability to utilize data effectively. One can argue that technology evolves by the week. Hence, businesses clinging to static planning models or outdated tools are at a disadvantage. Rigid annual budgets, manual forecasting, and intuition-based decision-making leave organizations vulnerable to disruption, especially when competitors are leveraging real-time data and AI-enhanced insights. Economic volatility heightens the stakes. Modern businesses must plan accordingly with supply chain upheavals and unpredictable customer payment behaviors in mind. "When organizations lack the tools to adjust plans based on shifting market realities, it doesn't matter if due to new regulations, inflation spikes, or geopolitical developments, they're planning blind," says Fedorkov. Centida also points to overengineering products or services without clearly understanding market demand as another issue. "A technically brilliant product will still fail if it doesn't meet a real customer need," Barte states. Companies usually falter in their go-to-market strategy because they don't truly understand their customer, their pricing flexibility, or the most effective sales channels. "Even businesses with enough funding might struggle to generate cash flow if there's no clarity, especially if they underestimate working capital needs or overestimate the speed of returns," Barte adds. Centida notes that these issues aren't exclusive to startups. Mid-sized and enterprise-level companies can face similar risks, especially when leadership changes or market stagnation sets in. Barte shares an example: "There's a trend in accounts receivable delays, where larger buyers now push payment terms from 30 to 180 days. For suppliers who don't account for this liquidity gap in their planning, the consequences can be fatal." What's the solution? Centida asserts that it begins with recognizing that data isn't just a support tool. It's the core of modern business strategy. Data analytics enables organizations to move from reactive to proactive planning. It eliminates guesswork, clarifies direction, and provides early warnings when performance veers off course. When properly applied, data aligns operations with strategic goals, provides realistic scenario planning, and ensures business decisions are made on facts. "You need to adapt if you want to survive in this landscape. And data is the key to adaptability," Fedorkov remarks. Centida operationalizes this philosophy, distinguishing itself by the way it works with clients. If other firms deliver cookie-cutter dashboards or plug-and-play solutions, Centida engages deeply with the business itself. It doesn't only translate business needs into information technology (IT) requirements. The firm speaks both languages fluently. This eliminates the information gaps that typically emerge in large-scale implementations. "Our approach of combining the strategic vision of consultants with the technical know-how of systems architects means we design solutions that reflect what's actually needed," Barte says. This comprehensive approach is why Centida is seen as a partner of choice for organizations struggling with uncertainty. Indeed, most businesses fail not because they lack ambition but because they lack insight. Centida BI & Analytics empowers organizations with the intelligence, structure, and agility they need to thrive in a fast-changing world. The Centida founders further share insightful advice for business owners and aspiring entrepreneurs. Fedorkov emphasizes that the foundation of a resilient business lies in uniting data and decision-making under the same roof. "Get rid of silos and ensure that your business teams take ownership of data-driven processes, not just IT," he says. "It's important to develop a solid understanding of the data you rely on." The most successful cases he's seen are when business people actively shape and guide the digital solutions they use, not delegate them. True resilience emerges when data and business expertise are intertwined, owned, and steered from within the organization. Meanwhile, Barte's advice centers around radical customer focus. He urges entrepreneurs to invest substantial time, then double it, into understanding who their customers truly are. "Knowing your product isn't enough," he states. "Knowing how to reach the right people through the right channels, partners, and tools is essential." Beyond that, he stresses the importance of building an adaptable model that guides one's business strategy and helps track its real-time performance. He adds: "If your efforts drift off course, that model should show exactly where and why, so you can recalibrate fast and keep moving forward."
