Following The Money! UFC 315 Betting Line Movements Tracker
UFC 315 headliner Jack Della Maddalena. | Photo byUFC 315 takes place this weekend (Sat., May 10, 2025) inside Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event sees UFC's Welterweight title on the line with Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena.
Advertisement
UFC 315's co-main event is Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot for Shevchenko's UFC Flyweight title.
The main card also has Jose Aldo vs. Aimann Zahabi, Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec (not Joel Alvarez) and Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva.
UFC 315's 'Prelims' are headlined by Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke. The undercard also has Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius and Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba.
I've been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 315 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you'll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).
UFC 315 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker
Belal Muhammad attempts his first title defense at UFC 315.
Belal Muhammad (-188 +6.3%) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+152 -9.5%)
Muhammad opened as the -230 favorite for this fight, with Della Maddalena at +176. The public think this fight is a little closer than that and these lines have started to creep toward each other. If you like the challenger in this match-up, get on him now before that shrinks anymore. If you like the champion, wait until fight time and you might get him around -150.
Advertisement
I agree with the public that this a close one and I'm really on the fence about it. I picked Della Maddalena with the point spread in my earlier betting post.
This line is an odd one for Muhammad. He's been the public's favorite underdog for awhile now. Vegas keeps giving him opening lines at plus money and the public keep betting those down, though not enough to make him a favorite.
Against Leon Edwards he opened at +240 and closed at +225. Against Gilbert Burns, he opened at +140 and closed at +135. Against Vicente Luque he opened at +180 and closed at +170 and against Stephen Thompson he opened at +210 and closed at +195. Muhammad, of course, won all these fights.
The last time he opened as a favorite was against Sean Brady. He opened at -225 and the public faded him enough to make him close at +126. Muhammad then went out and KO'd Brady (I don't think that happens again if they rematch, though).
Advertisement
The public have a good track record with Della Maddalena. He opened at +105 when he fought Burns, but then closed at -155. He then brutalized Burns in a way we'd never seen before. The public were also right with his fight with Kevin Holland, where he opened at +136 and closed at -155.
The public have been right on most Muhammad and Della Maddalena fights. And they are projecting a close one here. Might be worth avoiding a winner and instead looking at some round props for this one.
Valentina Shevchenko might be facing her last legit challenger at UFC 315.
Valentina Shevchenko (+107 +6.5%) vs. Manon Fiorot (-130 -4.8%)
Shevchenko opened at -107 for the first title defense of her latest reign as UFC Flyweight champ. The line has changed a little, giving her slightly plus odds. On May 5, her line jumped up to +128 and then sharply came back down.
Advertisement
Shevchenko also opened at -107 for her last fight with Alexa Grasso. She closed at +110 for that fight, which she then totally dominated.
Fiorot, meanwhile, opened at -117 for this fight. She's got some public backing here, but it's not dramatic.
The public, and Vegas, were wrong before her victory over Erin Blanchfield. For that fight she opened at +120 and closed at +180.
The public were wrong about her before her win over Rose Namajunas, too. She opened at -200 for that fight, but her line came up to -185.
This feels like another fight that will be very close and will very likely go the distance. I like Shevchenko and her takedowns, personally.
Aiemann Zahabi has been gifted a big name in his own backyard.
Jose Aldo (-202 -2.5%) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+165 +9.4%)
The Featherweight G.O.A.T. Aldo opened -188 and has had public backing, bring that line down to -202. Something similar happened in his last fight with Mario Bautista, where he opened at +130 and closed at +110. Aldo lost that fight by split decision (though, I scored it for the King of Rio).
Advertisement
Before that public were mostly fading Aldo. He opened at -107 against Jonathan Martinez and closed at +150. He then took a pretty comfortable decision over Martinez, in Rio. That was his first fight back since his stint in boxing. Prior to all that, he opened as a -170 favorite to Merab Dvalishvili. The public rightly thought that was off, though. They forced that line to close at +145 before the future champ, Dvalishvili, for the win.
Zahabi opened at +140 for this bout. But, his odds are lengthening, despite this fight being in his backyard. Zahabi has seen some pretty wild swings on his betting lines lately.
He opened at +115 versus Pedro Munhoz. But, that line closed at -188 (a massive 45.9% swing). Zahabi then beat Munhoz for the best win of his career.
Advertisement
Before that, Zahabi saw his line against Javid Basharat balloon from +164 to +700. Zahabi won that by decision, possibly 'fraud checking' the previous undefeated Afghan (who would then get lit up by Ricky Simon).
Another big swing with Zahabi was before his fight with Aoriqileng. He opened at +190 for that and closed at +125 (42.9 percent swing). He then finished Aoriqileng in the first round.
Natalie Silva could jump up the rankings with a win at UFC 315.
Alexa Grasso (+207 +18.6%) vs. Natalia Silva (-257 -10.8%)
I really think this line needs to be a lot closer than it is. Vegas thought so, too, opening with Grasso at +150 and Silva at -186. However, the public has different ideas. Their bets have Grasso as a pretty decent-sized underdog now.
Advertisement
That's the opposite of what they did in her last fight, as champion versus Valentina Shevchenko — she opened at -117 there and closed at -125.
Silva's line had been slowly shortening until, on May 3, it fell off a cliff into the territory we find it at now. This shortening is pretty standard for her. Before her win over Jessica Andrade her line shifted from -148 to -275. And before her win over Viviane Araujo her line shortened from -275 to -320.
Kyle Prepolec is a massive underdog at UFC 315.
Benoit Saint Denis (-1089 +0.8%) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+686 +4.6%)
Given that this is a short notice fight there hasn't been much time for it to change much.
Advertisement
There has been some up-and-down action on Prepolec's line, though. He opened at +650 and went down to +625 immediately. Then he spiked at +725 before dropping to +660 and back to where it is now.
That might be a sign that a few folks have put some bets down on the big underdog (probably just because he's a big underdog).
UFC 315 Late 'Prelims' Line Movement
Mike Malott will enjoy a friendly crowd at UFC 315.
Mike Malott (-168 +6%) vs. Charles Radtke (+137 -5.5%)
The public think this fight will be closer than Vegas initially forecast. Malott opened at -200 and Radtke opened at +150.
This is the first time Malott's line has moved this way in UFC. Against Trevin Giles, Neil Magny and Adam Fugitt his line has shortened, though not by a dramatic amount. The public were right on all those except the Magny fight, which Magny won via late comeback technical knockout.
Jessica Andrade is coming into UFC 315 off a loss.
Jessica Andrade (+248 +13.8%) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (-320 -4%)
Andrade is being faded, big time, by the public. She opened at +200 for this fight with Jasudavicius, but that is now rising. That's a pretty familiar pattern for Andrade. The public have faded her in her recent fights with Natalia Silva, Marina Rodriguez, Mackenzie Dern and Tatiana Suarez. They were only right to do that in the Silva and Suarez fights.
Advertisement
Jasudavicius opened at -275 for this fight. In her last fight, with Mayra Bueno Silva, she had a big shift in her line. She opened at +100 for that and closed at -245. She then took a convincing win over Bueno Silva.
Modestas Bukauskas looked great last time out.
Modestas Bukauskas (-104 +2.7%) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-117 +1.2%)
Vegas has this pegged as a close fight and the public is fine with that. I agree, too. I think there's going to be a finish here, though. I think Bukauskas will be the hammer and Cutelaba the nail. However, Cutelaba has showed a few times now that you can never count him out of a fight.
Ivan Erslan is looking for his first UFC win at UFC 315.
Navajo Stirling (-322 -6.8%) vs. Ivan Erslan (+260 +21%)
Erslan is one of the biggest movers at UFC 315. His line has skyrocketed from +175. This signals that the public really fancy Stirling in this fight. They did in Stirling's last fight, too, taking his opening line of -450 against Tuco Tokkos and turning it into -800. Stirling then won a pretty ho-hum decision in what was his proper UFC debut.
UFC 315 Early 'Prelims' Line Movement
Bruno Silva needs a win at UFC 315.
Marc-Andre Barriault (-154 -1.1%) vs. Bruno Silva (+128 +7.9%)
This is a close fight between two guys who really need a win. Vegas has Barriault as the slight favorite over Silva and the public seem mostly fine with that. The public faded Barriault in his last two fights, both of which ended with him in the shadow realm.
Jeong Yeong Lee lost a fire fight last time out.
Daniel Santos (+109 +18.7%) vs. Jeong Yeong Lee (-124 -22.9%)
This is our only flip on the card!
Advertisement
Santos opened at -143, but you can now get him at plus money, while Lee opened at +116 for this one. Santos has been out a while and has had fights fall through on an Ian McCall level in his UFC career.
In his last fight, against Johnny Munoz Jr., he opened at +155, but the public hammered his line. He ended up closing at -200 (76.3% swing!). Santos then won a decision. That was back in 2023, though.
The unheralded Bekzat Almakhan has a big opportunity at UFC 315.
Brad Katona (+129 -4.8%) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (-158 +6.2%)
This line hasn't changed much. The public are more or less fine with Katona being the slight underdog in his home country. Almakhan was a big underdog in his last fight, his debut opposite Umar Nurmagomedov.
Jeong Yeong Lee's betting line has had the most drastic movement at UFC 315.
UFC 315 Biggest Line Movements
TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 314:
Advertisement
Jeong Yeong Lee : From +116 underdog to -124 favorite (-22.9 percent) (B)
Ivan Erslan : From +175 underdog to +248 underdog (+21 percent) (A)
Daniel Santos : From -143 favorite to +109 underdog (+18.7 percent) (D)
Alexa Grasso: From +150 underdog to +220 underdog (+18.6 percent) (A)
Jessica Andrade: From +200 underdog to +248 underdog (+13.8 percent) (A)
Since I've been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.
A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 5-25.
B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 10-9.
C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 1-6.
D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 5-4.
E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-2.
F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 0-0.
Charles Radtke comes to Montreal as an underdog.
UFC 315 Best Underdogs Bets
There's a lot of underdogs I like on this card. I'm picking both Della Maddaena and Shevchenko in the main and co-main. I'm more confident in my Shevchenko bet, though. Other underdogs I like the look of are Radtke, Silva and Katona.
Advertisement
Of those, I probably like Silva the most. I think he's too durable for Barriault to put away.
Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 315 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ 'Prelims' matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 315: 'Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena' news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
More from mmamania.com:
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Insider
38 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Where to watch UFC 316: Live stream the Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley rematch
It's a bantamweight rematch for the ages at tonight's Newark Prudential Center UFC event. We've compiled everything you need to know about where to watch UFC 316, including a tentative schedule and a look at the fight card. Sean O'Malley of the United States is looking to earn back his bantamweight championship title after losing it to Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia in September 2024. O'Malley, who held the title for a little over a year, has an impressive 18-2-0 record, while Merab Dvalishvili has gone 19-4-0. Dvalishvili won the belt (by unanimous decision) at UFC 306 and has successfully passed through his first title defense against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 311 in January. Whether he can keep his momentum going is up to O'Malley. O'Malley and Dvalishvili aren't the only exciting fights on the UFC 316 fight card. The women's bantamweight title is also on the line as Julianna Peña looks to defend her belt from Kayla Harrison in the evening's co-main event. If you're a UFC fan in the US, you probably know the drill by now: you'll need an ESPN Plus subscription and a pay-per-view (PPV) event purchase to watch the main card. This is the only way to catch the event, even if you have cable. Fortunately, there's a limited-time ESPN Plus deal going right now that can help you save. We'll break down everything you need to know below. Where to watch UFC 316 in the US ESPN Plus is the only way to watch UFC main events in the US. You can't purchase the fight through your cable provider, so you'll need a subscription no matter what. ESPN Plus alone will allow you to watch the prelims, but you'll need to purchase the main card as a PPV event to watch Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley and the other main fights. ESPN Plus costs $11.99/month, and all UFC PPV events cost $79.99. Right now, ESPN Plus is running a limited-time promo that will knock over 50% off the cost of your first three months of monthly service. That means you can get your first three months for just $5.99/month each. Just keep in mind that you'll still need to pay the full PPV price. If you're looking for even more savings and plan to hold onto ESPN Plus for the long run, try the UFC PPV bundle. The evergreen deal combines an annual subscription to ESPN Plus (normally $119.99/year) and the next PPV event (normally $79.99) for $134.98. That's $65 less than it would normally cost to pay for the two services separately — over 30% in savings. As with the monthly subscriptions, it's important to remember that you'll always need to pay for future PPV events. How to watch UFC 316 everywhere else UFC is available around the world, so you should consult your local TV guide and listings to see if you can tune in from where you live. In the UK, Discovery Plus hosts UFC events through its Premium tier, which costs £30.99/month. Since the events are usually on so late, the option doesn't typically require a PPV fee (although sometimes this is the case). If you find yourself traveling through a region where you can't access your usual watch options, it might be time to try out a VPN (virtual private network). VPNs are tech tools that let people change their device's virtual location. This way, their favorite websites and apps work from anywhere. VPNs are also a quick and easy way to improve cybersecurity by protecting your IP address. ExpressVPN is our top recommendation when it comes to the best VPN deals. It's a user-friendly service with a massive selection of servers and security assets, which you can learn more about in our ExpressVPN review. Use a VPN to watch these events & shows free: All the items below have a free streaming option that can be unlocked from anywhere with a VPN. Set it to the corresponding country, and you're all set. French Open - various MotoGP - various Love Island - various The Traitors - various Walking Dead: Dead City - New Zealand Poker Face - New Zealand How to watch UFC 316 with a VPN Sign up for a VPN if you don't already have one. Install it on the device you're using to watch. Turn it on and set it to the location of your streaming service, like ESPN Plus (US) or Discovery Plus (UK). Subscribe and pay the subscription and/or PPV fee. Enjoy UFC online. UFC 316 main fight card Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley (bantamweight title fight) Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison (women's bantamweight title fight) Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer (middleweight bout) Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix (bantamweight bout) Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland (welterweight bout) Note: The use of VPNs is illegal in certain countries and using VPNs to access region-locked streaming content might constitute a breach of the terms of use for certain services. Business Insider does not endorse or condone the illegal use of VPNs.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 preview show live stream with Farah Hannoun
UFC 316 goes down Saturday night with two championship fights atop the bill, and before the fights get underway, Farah Hannoun will host a live-streamed preview show right here at 5 p.m. ET. In the headliner, bantamweight champion champion Merab Dvalishvili (19-4 MMA, 12-2 UFC) takes on challenger and ex-champ Sean O'Malley (18-2 MMA, 10-2 UFC) in a rematch. In the co-feature, women's bantamweight titleholder Julianna Peña (13-5 MMA, 8-3 UFC) meets Kayla Harrison (18-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC), a two-time Olympic gold medalist and two-time PFL $1 million champion who is one of the biggest title challenger betting favorites in UFC history. Advertisement UFC 316 (pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Check out the preview show in the video above. This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley 2 preview live stream
USA Today
2 hours ago
- USA Today
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 preview show live stream with Farah Hannoun
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 preview show live stream with Farah Hannoun UFC 316 goes down Saturday night with two championship fights atop the bill, and before the fights get underway, Farah Hannoun will host a live-streamed preview show right here at 5 p.m. ET. In the headliner, bantamweight champion champion Merab Dvalishvili (19-4 MMA, 12-2 UFC) takes on challenger and ex-champ Sean O'Malley (18-2 MMA, 10-2 UFC) in a rematch. In the co-feature, women's bantamweight titleholder Julianna Peña (13-5 MMA, 8-3 UFC) meets Kayla Harrison (18-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC), a two-time Olympic gold medalist and two-time PFL $1 million champion who is one of the biggest title challenger betting favorites in UFC history. UFC 316 (pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Check out the preview show in the video above.
