Only regime change will stop Iran making a nuclear weapon

Euronews

7 hours ago

Only regime change will completely neutralise the threat that Iran will develop nuclear weapons, however successful 'Operation Midnight Hammer' may have been, though it will cement support for Trump domestically, an expert on foreign policy has told Euronews.
Euronews interviewed Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Bruegel Institute, on the American air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Kirkegaard said the attacks might eventually bring the world closer to closer to the end, as Iran has very limited tools to escalate the situation.
According to the expert, Iran could choose to retaliate against either US bases by killing a number of US troops, or against the crude oil facilities, either by hitting the transportation through the Strait of Hormuz or some of the facilities in the Gulf Arab neighbours of Iran.
But Kirkegaard said he thought both options "a low probability" because Iran today is "at a nearly historically weak military position".
According to the expert, Iran's proxies, like Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Houthis, are weakened and the US could join a broader military campaign if Iran hits American targets.
"This is the risk that the Iranians know that Trump has proven he's actually willing to pull the trigger. And they need to take it seriously. I don't think we're headed for more escalation, but on the other hand, does this bring a negotiated peace settlement or a return to an agreed international nuclear surveillance, sort of a JPCOA 2.0, any nearer? The risk is that I think the US and the European countries are now going to want a more intrusive JPCOA that Iran may or may not agree to. So I think the possibility of an accelerated peace move is there, but it is absolutely no certainty," he said.
Iran might still be able to produce a nuclear bomb
Kirkegaard said that for the moment, nobody knows how much damage the Iranian nuclear sites have suffered. If the Natanz and Isfahan sites are disabled, "this will make weapons-grade uranium enrichment more difficult", he said.
"But that may not matter very much. Because the latest data from the International Atomic Energy Agency suggested that Iran had about 400 kilos of enriched uranium, up to 60 percent. That is, if further enriched, more than enough to produce a nuclear weapon, provided you have the technical know-how to do so, weaponize it. We don't know if Iran has that, but what it means is that destroying these facilities, even if they are successfully destroyed, isn't going to destroy the Iranian nuclear program."
With a possibly large amount of highly enriched uranium hidden in the country, Iran may still be capable of building a nuclear bomb, he said.
"Iran remains a nuclear threshold power, maybe not quite as near as it was 24 hours ago, but a country that could, if the regime decided to go all out to produce a bomb, might very well still be capable of doing so."
He added that as a result, there is no military solution for the Iranian programme unless there is a regime change in the country.
Trump will be remembered as a president who bombed Iran
Kirkegaard said that despite Trump's aspiration to be a peacemaker in Ukraine, he will be remembered as the president who bombed Iran.
"He's going to forever be the US President who bombed Iran. So whenever he's criticized by certainly the more hawkish elements of the US political firmament... he will always have, 'look, I bombed Iran'. What did Obama do? What did Biden do? What did even Bush do?"
Trump will thereby deter criticism within the MAGA camp, according to the analyst, and he will certainly not cross the red line of sending troops to Iran.
"The only thing where I think he will remain inhibited, but he's no more inhibited than any other president, is that you're not gonna have boots on the ground. You're not going to have a US actual invasion of Iran, which obviously would be a disaster for everyone involved. He knows that he's not gonna do that. But he has shown to the people who call him TACO and thought he was gonna chicken out, he showed them."
Europe is irrelevant in the conflict
Jacob Kirkegaard said Europe will be irrelevant in the conflict, but many leaders on the continent are happy that Israel, together with the US, is destroying Iran's nuclear and missile programme.
"I think we have to say that the brief window of European diplomacy that we had on Friday with the meeting in Geneva went nowhere. The Iranians told the E3 foreign ministers that they are not interested in pursuing a deal that will freeze completely all nuclear enrichment. The reality is that Europe is irrelevant in this conflict. "
The analyst added that Europe is also deeply split on the issue, and many leaders are quietly celebrating.
"Friedrich Merz told German television that Israel is doing Europe's dirty work by striking Iran. There's no doubt that Europe secretly is very happy that Iran's ballistic missile and drone production capacity appears to be significantly degraded by Israel. "
Striking Iran is directly weakening Russia, which is Europe's main strategic threat.
"While nobody's going to praise Netanyahu publicly in Europe, the reality is that Friedrich Merz was right. But many European governments will obviously feel differently publicly or otherwise. And that alone will prevent Europe from taking a united stance that condemns Europe to irrelevance. It's really that simple."