Teofimo Lopez Vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. Fight: Odds, Predictions, Picks

Forbes

29-04-2025

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 04: Teofimo Lopez and Arnold Barboza Jr. face off during a press ... More conference at Palladium Times Square on March 04, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Cris Esqueda/)
One of the most anticipated boxing cards of the year takes place on Friday, May 2. The 'FATAL FURY: City of the Wolves' event, which is headlined by a boxing match between Ryan Garcia and Rolando 'Rolly' Romero, also features two other fights. In the co-main event, Devin Haney faces Jose Carlos Ramirez. Meanwhile, in the fight card opener, Teofimo Lopez puts his WBO light welterweight title on the line against Arnold Barboza Jr. We look at the Lopez vs. Barboza Jr. fight betting odds, picks, and predictions.
The opening betting odds for this matchup saw Lopez come in as the -300 favorite over Barboza, who was initially listed as the +180 betting underdog. Those lines have shifted slightly in favor of the challenger. Today, Lopez is -260, while Barboza checks in at +180.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 04: Teofimo Lopez and Arnold Barboza Jr. face off in Times Square on ... More March 04, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Cris Esqueda/)
Teofimo Lopez (21-1 with 13 KOs) is riding a five-fight winning streak since he lost the WBA, IBF, and WBO lightweight belts to George Kambosos Jr. in November 2021.
Lopez captured the WBO light welterweight crown in June 2023 with a decision win over Josh Taylor. He has defended the belt twice, beating Jamaine Ortiz and Steve Claggett on points.
Barboza (32-0 with 11 KOs) won the vacant interim WBO light welterweight belt in February with a split decision win over Jack Catterall. The victory was Barboza's eighth decision in in nine outings dating back to August 2020.
ESPN has Lopez ranked at No. 1 in the 140-pound division, while Barboza checks in at No. 3 in those rankings. The man between them at No. 2 is Devin Haney, who also competes on the May 2 fight card against the unranked Jose Ramirez.
Lopez has not fought since June 2024, while Barboza has two fights since November 2024, most recently competing in February.
Record: 21-1 with 13 knockouts
Age: 27
Height: 5'8"
Reach: 68.5"
Stance: Orthodox
Record: 32-0 with 11 knockouts
Age: 33
Height: 5'9"
Reach: 72"
Stance: Orthodox
The big question surrounding this fight, and every fight since Lopez lost to George Kambosos Jr. in 2021 via split decision following his impressive 2020 win over Vasiliy Lomachenko, is what version of Lopez shows up? To be fair, Lopez was unprepared for Kambosos on that night, but he is 5-0 since then, and while he hasn't looked spectacular in some of those fights, he has won. With that in mind, any expectation Lopez will be ill-prepared for a title fight against a dangerous undefeated opponent with much less to lose than Lopez might be considered an unfounded concern. A secondary question is whether Lopez is the same fighter at 140 pounds as he was at 135 pounds.
As for the fight itself, this is a matchup between two skilled technical competitors, with one of them (Lopez) having much more high-level in-ring experience. However, what Barboza lacks in competition, he makes up for in volume. Barboza has stepped into the ring four times in 2024 and once in 2025. He has fought twice since Lopez's June 2024 victory over Steve Claggett.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 10: Teofimo Lopez and Arnold Barboza Jr. face off during a press ... More conference at The Mayan on March 10, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Cris Esqueda/)
Lopez is a fighter who can allow his opponent dictate the style of the fight, which is exactly what Barboza wants in this matchup. If Barboza can keep the fight to the outside and use his defensive acumen and ability to not get involved in a fire fight, he could slowly bank rounds until he leaves Lopez with no choice to get aggressive and sloppy and looking for a knockout, which the steadfast Barboza should also be able to use to his advantage.
No matter how you look at it, there is betting value in Barboza. He entered his past two fights against Jose Ramirez and Jack Catterall as the underdog. He won both of those contests by decision, so he enters Friday's matchup not just with momentum, but with confidence. Yes, Lopez is a step up in competition and he is a bigger betting favorite than Ramirez and Catterall were, but Barboza won those fights, and that's not nothing.
The betting pick is for Arnold Barboza Jr. to beat Teofimo Lopez via decision for the biggest win of his boxing career.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 10: Teofimo Lopez looks on during a press conference at The Mayan on ... More March 10, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Cris Esqueda/)
'It's a good matchup, good fight, fire with bigger fire,' Lopez told The Ring. 'But I'm just here to flow wit' it, to be water at the same time, and kinda steam it up. But, you know, the real job is May 2nd. That's really what my whole purpose of this is. … I'm just excited, thankful and ready to kick ass May 2nd.'
'Top Rank didn't protect me from him,' Lopez said of charges that he had been 'protected" by the promoter. 'It's just I was calling the shots in Top Rank's office. It's not protecting. It didn't make sense at that point. Who is he? I mean, after 32 professional fights you just get your first interim world title? My 15th pro fight, I had my first world title.
'It's a big difference. You know what I'm saying? Half of all his fights, I've accomplished more. And I'm looking forward to doing more this year, especially with the phenomenal team I have alongside of me – [co-managers] Mike [Borao] and Keith Connolly – I think it's gonna be great.'
'I haven't seen his fight with Catterall,' Lopez said of Barboza's most recent win. 'I heard it was back and forth. It was a close fight. I could [not] care less. Now he's gonna find out why things happen the way they do, and why people actually end up trying to run away from me when they feel my punches. But nevertheless, can't rely on that. Gotta rely on my skills.'
'I think things progressed that way, just the way the boxing business is,' Lopez added. 'I think Barboza has been asking somewhat for me, so I think it was just gonna line up that way eventually, with the WBO and having him as my mandatory. So, it's business. I'm sure they have hopes of Barboza possibly beating me and becoming the new face of the 140 division.'
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 10: Arnold Barboza Jr. speaks during a press conference at The Mayan ... More on March 10, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Cris Esqueda/)
'I haven't even heard these comments until now, but my response is, 'Look at my last three fights versus his last three, and who's fought the better opposition?'' Barboza asked after being told that Lopez said he was not concerned with his upcoming opponent.
'The fights I've taken are supposed to be close, as I'm fighting three of the top five guys in my division within just over a five-month period,' Barboza said. 'That's an old-school mentality. You can argue Ramirez is in the top five. Catterall was top two or three. And Teofimo is No. 1. I went over there [to fight England's Catterall in Manchester], in hostile territory, something Teo hasn't done.
'He hasn't gone into someone's backyard with 15,000 people booing him. I had to travel 18 hours to Saudi [to fight Ramirez]. [Lopez] hasn't been through this. I have. I literally have earned this the hard way. He hasn't done that. So he doesn't know what he's talking about.'
'Our fight has the highest stakes, fighting for a belt and for bad blood,' Barboza added. 'I'm expecting the best Teofimo there's ever been because I know he knows he's in for a fight. I don't want any excuses. We're ready. To me, this is the fight, like [Juan Manuel] Marquez in that fourth fight against [Manny] Pacquiao – I can't see past him at all.'
We will have more on the upcoming Lopez vs. Barboza fight and the entire Garcia vs. Romero fight card, including updated betting odds, and picks and predictions, as fight night nears.