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Zawya
an hour ago
- Zawya
US Stocks: S&P 500 ends nearly flat, gives back gains; Fed's Powell says inflation to rise
NEW YORK: The S&P 500 ended nearly flat on Wednesday, giving back earlier gains after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation in goods prices is expected to go up over the summer as President Donald Trump's tariffs work their way to consumers. The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged, as expected. In the statement, policymakers maintained expectations for two cuts this year, but a rising minority expected no rate cuts at all. Also, they slightly slowed the expected pace to a single quarter-percentage-point cut in each of 2026 and 2027. Stocks were moderately higher before Powell's comments. As he spoke, U.S. Treasury yields also pared most of their earlier drop. "He made it quite clear he's not going to change monetary policy until they are sure of the tariffs' effect on inflation," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. So, "you have the combination of yields going up, and the fact that it's going to take time to see the effects" of the tariffs, he said. Investors also have been closely watching developments in the Middle East. Some worry about the possibility of a more direct U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran aerial war. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Trump's demand for unconditional surrender. Trump said his patience had run out, though he did not indicate what his next step would be. Energy led declines among S&P 500 sectors, while information technology was up the most. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 44.14 points, or 0.10%, to 42,171.66, the S&P 500 lost 1.85 points, or 0.03%, to 5,980.87 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 25.18 points, or 0.13%, to 19,546.27. Early in the day, initial jobless claims data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but stayed at levels consistent with a further loss of labor market momentum in June. Powell's "message was consistent with what has been telegraphed. Inflation is still elevated, but tariffs in the coming months will be a wild card. Powell said if not for tariffs he would be cutting rates now," said Sahak Manuelian, managing director of global equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles. Shares of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet rose 33.8% after the U.S. Senate passed a bill to create a regulatory framework for dollar-pegged cryptocurrency tokens known as stablecoins. Steelmaker Nucor rose 3.3% following a second-quarter profit forecast that came above analysts' estimates. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.28-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 102 new highs and 55 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 2,613 stocks rose and 1,882 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.39-to-1 ratio. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 16.48 billion shares, compared with the 17.99 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. (Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru and Sinead Carew and Stephen Culp in New York; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli and David Gregorio)
Zawya
an hour ago
- Zawya
Fed keeps rates steady but pencils in two cuts by end of 2025; Powell sees 'meaningful' inflation ahead
WASHINGTON: The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday and policymakers signaled borrowing costs are still likely to fall in 2025, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against putting too much weight on that view, and said he expects "meaningful" inflation ahead as consumers pay more for goods due to the Trump administration's planned import tariffs. "No one holds these ... rate paths with a great deal of conviction, and everyone would agree that they're all going to be data-dependent," Powell said in a press conference after the end of a two-day U.S. central bank meeting where policymakers slowed their overall outlook for rate cuts in response to a more challenging outlook of weaker economic growth, rising joblessness, and faster price increases. If not for tariffs, Powell said, rate cuts might actually be in order, given that recent inflation readings have been favorably low. But a cost shock is coming, he insisted, with producers, manufacturers and retailers still involved in a complicated struggle over who will pay the levies imposed so far, and President Donald Trump still contemplating an aggressive set of import duties that could go into effect early next month. "Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs, because someone has to pay for the tariffs ... between the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer, the retailer," Powell said. "People will be trying not to be the ones who can pick up the cost. Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer." "We'll make smarter and better decisions if we just wait a couple of months or however long it takes to get a sense of really what is going to be the pass-through of inflation" from the higher import taxes, Powell said. In new economic projections released alongside the Fed's statement, policymakers sketched a modestly stagflationary picture of the economy, with growth in 2025 slowing to 1.4%, unemployment rising to 4.5%, and inflation ending the year at 3%, well above the current level. While policymakers still anticipate cutting rates by half a percentage point this year, as they projected in March and December, they slightly slowed the pace from there to a single quarter-percentage-point cut in each of 2026 and 2027 in a protracted fight to return inflation to their 2% target. And there was a split among the 19 policymakers, with seven of them feeling no rate cuts will be needed. That diversity of views reflects that while uncertainty over Trump's tariff policy is down from its peak in April, it's still "a very foggy time," Powell said, adding that policymakers may have divergent assessments of the risk that inflation could stay persistently higher, or that the labor market could weaken. Under the new projections, inflation will remain elevated at 2.4% through 2026 before falling to 2.1% in 2027 amid largely stable unemployment. The projected 1.4% GDP growth this year compares to the 1.7% rate seen in the last round of projections in March, and the 4.5% unemployment rate expected at the end of the year is up from the 4.4% projected in March. The rate in May was 4.2% So far, however, "the unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid," the Fed said in a policy statement that kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range. The decision was approved unanimously. "There's still bias towards some version of stagnation, lower growth with rising sticky inflation," said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for global fixed income at Brandywine Global. "It feels like it's a Fed that's still being very patient, and they're still biased towards cutting rates in the near future." TRUMP LASHES OUT The Fed's statement did not mention the sudden outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran and the risk that conflict posed to global oil or other markets. Powell said the Fed is watching the conflict "like everybody else" and that while it's possible energy prices could rise, such price spikes generally fade and don't have lasting effects on inflation. "For the time being we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell said. The Fed, he added, is set up to "react" to incoming information in a timely way. U.S. stock indexes closely largely flat on the day, while the 10-year Treasury yield was mostly unchanged. Interest rate future prices continued to suggest the Fed's September 16-17 meeting was the most likely point for the next rate cut, with another reduction in borrowing costs likely by the end of 2025. The central bank's latest action again ignored Trump's call for immediate rate cuts, a move Fed officials feel would be counter to their effort to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target until key tariff changes are finalized and their effects are better understood. As Fed officials were meeting on Wednesday, Trump called Powell "stupid" and said the policy rate should be slashed in half, the type of move usually reserved for severe economic emergencies. The president also mused about installing himself as Fed chief. The Fed cut rates three times last year, with the last move coming in December. Policymakers, however, have been reluctant to commit to a timeline for further cuts given the volatility of U.S. trade policy, and the difficulty of estimating how the burden of higher import taxes will be spread among consumers, importers, and producing nations.
Zawya
an hour ago
- Zawya
Investors see quick stock market drop if US joins Israel-Iran conflict
Financial markets may be in for a "knee-jerk" selloff if the U.S. military attacks Iran, with economists warning that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by President Donald Trump's tariffs. Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday as investors weighed the chance of supply disruptions from the Israel-Iran conflict and potential direct U.S. involvement. The price of crude remains up almost 9% since Israel launched attacks against Iran last Friday in a bid to cripple its ability to produce nuclear weapons. With major U.S. stock indexes trading near record highs despite uncertainty about Trump's trade policy, some investors worry that equities may be particularly vulnerable to sources of additional global uncertainty. Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services, said U.S. stocks might initially sell off should Trump order the U.S. military to become more heavily involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, but that a faster escalation might also bring the situation to an end sooner. "I could see the initial knee-jerk would be, 'this is bad'," Carlson said. "I think it will bring things to a head quicker." Wednesday's dip in crude, along with a modest 0.3% increase in the S&P 500, came after Trump declined to answer reporters' questions about whether the U.S. was planning to strike Iran but said Iran had proposed to come for talks at the White House. Adding to uncertainty, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Trump's demand for unconditional surrender. U.S. Treasury yields fell as concerns over the war in Iran boosted safe haven demand for the debt. The U.S. military is also bolstering its presence in the region, Reuters reported, further stirring speculation about U.S. intervention that investors fear could widen the conflict in an area with critical energy resources, supply chains and infrastructure. With investors viewing the dollar as a safe haven, it has gained around 1% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc since last Thursday. On Wednesday, the U.S. currency took a breather, edging fractionally lower against the yen and the franc. 'I don't think personally that we are going to join this war. I think Trump is going to do everything possible to avoid it. But if it can't be avoided, then initially that's going to be negative for the markets,' said Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. "Gold would shoot up. Yields would probably come down lower and the dollar would probably rally." Barclays warned that crude prices could rise to $85 per barrel if Iranian exports are reduced by half, and that prices could rise about $100 in the "worst case" scenario of a wider conflagration. Brent crude was last at about $76. Citigroup economists warned in a note on Wednesday that materially higher oil prices "would be a negative supply shock for the global economy, lowering growth and boosting inflation—creating further challenges for central banks that are already trying to navigate the risks from tariffs." Trump taking a "heavier hand" would not be a surprise to the market, mitigating any negative asset price reaction, Carlson said, while adding that he was still not convinced that the U.S. would take a heavier role. Trades on the Polymarket betting website point to a 63% expectation of "U.S. military action against Iran before July", down from as much as an 82% likelihood on Tuesday, but still above a 35% chance before the conflict began last Friday. The S&P 500 energy sector index has rallied over 2% in the past four sessions, lifted by a 3.8% gain in Exxon Mobil and 5% rally in Valero Energy. That compares to a 0.7% drop in the S&P 500 over the same period, reflecting investor concerns about the impact of higher oil prices on the economy, and about growing global uncertainty generated by the conflict. Turmoil in the Middle East comes as investors are already fretting about the effect of Trump's tariffs on the global economy. The World Bank last week slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. Defense stocks, already lifted by Russia's conflict with Ukraine, have made modest gains since Israel launched its attacks. The S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense index hit record highs early last week in the culmination of a rebound of over 30% from losses in the wake of Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. Even after the latest geopolitical uncertainty, the S&P 500 remains just 2% below its February record high close. "Investors want to be able to look past this, and until we see reasons to believe that this is going to be a much larger regional conflict with the U.S. perhaps getting involved and a high chance of escalating, you're going to see the market want to shrug this off as much as it can,' Osman Ali, global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies, said at an investor conference on Wednesday. (Reporting by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; additional reporting by Steven Culp, Lewis Krauskopf and Sinead Carew in New York; Editing by Megan Davies)
