Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 1 Pick, Best Bets: OKC Heavy Home Favorites

Newsweek

20-05-2025

MVP favorite Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and the Thunder are the heavy favorites -- both in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals and to win the series -- against the Anthony Edwards-led Timberwolves.
MVP favorite Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and the Thunder are the heavy favorites -- both in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals and to win the series -- against the Anthony Edwards-led Timberwolves.
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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The highly anticipated Western Conference Finals battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder (1) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (6) is upon us.
OKC is coming off a draining seven-game series vs. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, while the Wolves were able to make quick work of the Stephen Curry-less Warriors in the second round.
The Wolves have not played since sealing their gentleman's sweep of Golden State last Wednesday. The Thunder, on the other hand, had to turn their attention from the Nuggets to the Wolves immediately after Game 7 of their second-round series on Sunday.
For a comprehensive look at how to bet on the series -- from how many games it will go to who is favored to be the series leader in points, rebounds and various other stats -- check out Newsweek's Timberwolves vs. Thunder Western Conference Finals series betting preview.
Wolves vs. Thunder Game 1 Betting Odds
DK FD bet365 MIN spread +7.5 (-110) +7.5 (-114) +7 (-110) OKC spread -7.5 (-110) -7.5 (-106) -7 (-110) MIN ML +240 +240 +235 OKC ML -298 -295 -290 Total 217.5 (o-112; u-108) 218 (o-110; u-110) 218 (o-110; u-110)
How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 1
Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Series Winner Odds (as of May 20)
DraftKings : MIN +265; OKC -330
: MIN +265; OKC -330 FanDuel : MIN +295; OKC -370
: MIN +295; OKC -370 bet365: MIN +280; OKC -360
Wolves vs. Thunder Game 1 Analysis, Pick
A strong start by the Timberwolves tonight shouldn't surprise anyone.
It's hard to overstate the contrast between the two-day turnaround between series for OKC and the six-day turnaround between the second round and the WCF for the Minnesota.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Regular-Season Results (2-2)
Dec. 31: OKC 113, MIN 105
Feb. 13: MIN 116, OKC 101
Feb. 23: OKC 130, MIN 123
Feb. 24: MIN 131, OKC 128 (OT)
Regular-season head-to-head results are usually instructive when picking Game 1 of a playoff series -- but not always (just ask the Celtics).
Does the fact that the Wolves held their own despite Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert and Donte DiVincenzo all missing three of the four MIN-OKC games mean that the Thunder will have their hands full against the full-strength Wolves?
Or will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -- who averaged 35 points per game against Minnesota in the regular season -- and the 10-deep Thunder be too much for the Timberwolves?
One key question is whether Minnesota will be able to limit turnovers against the best turnover-forcing team in the league in OKC. The Wolves finished their matchup with the Warriors on a three-game streak of 21-turnover nights. That, however, went largely ignored, as they still won each of those games.
Can Minnesota Knock Down Enough 3-Pointers to Beat OKC?
Minnesota's 3-point shooting might be the single-biggest thing to watch in this series. Assuming they can avoid turnovers, the Wolves should be able to create plenty of clean looks from long distance.
In the regular season, the Thunder thrived defensively despite allowing 39.3 3-point attempts per game because they were the best in the league in opposing 3-point percentage at 34.2.
Sticking to that formula has paid off in the playoffs for the Thunder, especially against Denver.
The Thunder allowed forced six players -- Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Russell Westbrook -- to take at least 4.5 3PA in the conference semis. Gordon (44.1 percent on 4.9 3PA per game) was lights-out, and Jokic was OK, at 32.5 percent on 5.7 3PA per game (but 8-for-32 outside of his 5-for-7 outlier night in Game 5).
But Murray (30.6 percent on 7 3PA per game), Braun (28.9 percent on 6.4 3PA per game), Porter Jr. (25 percent on 5.1 3PA per game) and Westbrook (21.9 percent on 4.6 3PA per game) all struggled throughout the series.
It won't be hard for the Timberwolves -- a quality 3-point shooting team that is also much healthier and deeper than the Nuggets -- to collectively shoot better from 3-point land than the Nuggets did.
Whether they will shoot well enough from downtown to win this series, though, that is the real question.
It's worth noting that in the regular season, Minnesota shot 39 percent or better from 3 twice against OKC and lost both those games (113-105 on December 13 and 130-123 on Feb. 23).
But the Timberwolves beat the Thunder on Feb. 13 despite shooting 12-for-46 (26.1 percent) from 3. They also won 131-128 in overtime on Feb. 24 in spite of a 9-for-32 (28 percent) 3-point shooting performance.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 1 Best Bets
Ultimately, I think the combo of fresh legs, Edwards and Randle will be enough for Minnesota to start Game 1 hot and cover as three-possession underdogs.
Remember, Randle only played in one of the four matchups between these teams. He was a force against both the Lakers in the first round and the Warriors in the second, though, and he gives Minnesota a potent second scoring option alongside Edwards.
One reason why the Thunder are heavily favored could be the fact that Anthony Edwards shot 36 percent from the floor (31.6 percent from 3) in the regular season. Tonight, though, I expect Edwards to shoot the ball much better thanks to the presence of Randle, DiVincenzo and Gobert (particularly the former).
If OKC does force Edwards to beat them as a passer, that will mean open looks for Minnesota's long list of capable shooters. Seven of the top eight players in coach Chris Finch's current rotation shot at least 33 percent from 3 on 3.7 3PA or more in the regular season, with Gobert being the only exception.
Wolves +7.5 (-114 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
Over 217.5 (-112 at DraftKings) -- 1 unit
Wolves 1Q ML (+160 at bet365) -- 0.5 units
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