MLB at the midway point: Cal Raleigh's HR pace could deny Aaron Judge a Triple Crown

USA Today

3 hours ago

Well, that was fast.
Major League Baseball's halfway point has arrived for a significant number of ballclubs, a time to take stock and responsibly project what wild trends and paces may become reality when October arrives.
The standings reveal plenty of ambiguity, evidenced by the utterly cloudy trade deadline picture that will likely reveal a dud of a July trade bazaar. Yet there are several team and individual exploits – some ignominious – coming into view as the field reaches the turnaround point and heads for home.
A look at several paces to keep an eye on this summer, be they realistic goals or something to dream on:
Cal Raleigh: 66 home runs
Yeah, this remains totally irrational. For now, though, we've learned not to doubt 'Big Dumper' until the big guy stops blasting balls out of ballparks.
And we're not too far away from 'Judge Watch' infographics – yes, can a previously unheralded catcher break the American League record of 62 set by the greatest power hitter of this generation?
Some signs suggest yes. Raleigh's expected slugging percentage of .593 falls short of his actual .658 mark, which, we should note, is nearly 200 points north of his full-season career high.
And this is the thing: Catchers typically tail off as the summer grows longer. Raleigh's career first-half OPS of .812 falls to .754 after the All-Star break. Yet last year, when he hit a career-high 34 homers, his slug was virtually identical (.435 to .437) and his OPS also went up after the break (.734 to .767). An interesting data point to monitor: With Statcast now measuring bat speed, can Raleigh maintain his 88th-percentile 74.9 mph hack all year?
So little is guaranteed for catchers, always just a foul tip away from a few weeks on the shelf. We can't even guarantee Raleigh will break Salvador Perez's record of 48 home runs for a primary catcher. We also can't set any limits on B-Dumps, either, since he finds a way to exceed them.
Aaron Judge: Triple Crown
What's the current hindrance keeping Judge from the game's first Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012? See above.
Yep, Judge currently trails Raleigh in homers (32-28) and RBIs (69-63), though their track records and the fact Judge plays right field and enjoys the occasional short-porch bonus at Yankee Stadium augurs well for the big guy. Less in his favor is whether the decent to hot starts of veteran teammates like Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger are sustainable, affecting his RBI chances.
And then there's Judge's run toward what would be his first batting title. Incredibly, he was batting .400 as late as May 7, before mildly regressing to a more human .361. For once, his top competition is not Raleigh but rather Athletics rookie Jacob Wilson, batting .347, including a scorching .361 at home in Yolo County.
And plenty of other spoilers lurk in the batting leaders, perhaps most notably Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña (.325), who's amid a career year, and Guardians hit machine José Ramírez (.318).
A few factors could boost Judge in this chase, particularly if he sees fewer pitches in the second half and his average remains less prone to dips like the 2-for-24 (.083) he recently suffered through against the Red Sox and Angels. Yet, taking his walks would save his average but hinder his homer and RBI totals. Not easy, huh?
That's one reason the Triple Crown remains one of the game's great feats of badassery, despite what the naysayers might claim.
Tarik Skubal: 9.6 strikeout-walk ratio
A little esoteric, you say? Well, sue us: Nobody's on pace for 20 wins or 300 strikeouts and there's really no better way to illustrate the dominant two-year run Skubal's on.
He's struck out 125 and walked just 13 this season, and that ratio is 115-9 over his last 14 starts. (The Tigers are 12-2 in those games, shockingly). Such dominance paired with efficiency has enabled all his other greatness: The 205-inning pace, the majors-leading 2.12 FIP and 0.87 WHIP, all creating such value for the Tigers that he should garner a few down-ballot MVP votes along with a second Cy Young should he maintain.
And that 9.6 ratio? It'd be second-highest in AL history, behind … Phil Hughes? Yes, the one-time All-Star produced an 11.63 mark in 2014 for the Minnesota Twins.
Will Smith: .330 batting average
Just three times has a catcher won the NL batting title: Buster Posey in his 2012 MVP season in San Francisco and Ernie Lombardi for Cincinnati in 1938 and the Boston Braves in 1942.
Smith has a 19-point lead over teammate Freddie Freeman at the moment, scary company to keep. But the batting average only scratches the surface of Smith's value to the Dodgers.
He's batting a majors-leading .426 with runners in scoring position, a testament to his ability to clean up hitting behind Freeman, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani. His .425 OBP leads the NL. And while 13 Dodgers pitchers are currently on the injured list, Smith's 3.2 WAR is tops among NL catchers and seventh overall, helping the superteam stay on track.
Like his AL counterpart Raleigh, keeping up that pace at the plate will be challenging given the work asked of him behind it. Yet unlike Raleigh, Smith doesn't get the occasional DH day since Ohtani occupies that spot, giving him more chances to truly sit on his average. Come and get him, fellas.
Colorado Rockies: 125 losses
This one's gonna be fascinating, in a grim kind of way. As you might have heard, the Rockies steadied the ship just a bit after a 9-50 start. Yet after a 15-game stretch of winning baseball (OK, 8-7), there they went again, losing six of seven to fall back under what we'll call the Reinsdorf Line.
Yep, the Rockies need to win at better than a .253 clip to ensure they don't break the 2024 Chicago White Sox's modern record of 121 losses before the ink in the record books had a chance to dry.
It's true: The Rockies are playing much better than when they were losing 21-0 and firing their manager. Young players such as Michael Toglia are gaining their footing, and catcher Hunter Goodman is a bona fide All-Star.
Problem is, the '24 White Sox only bottomed out in historic fashion after the trade deadline, when they shipped off Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, Tommy Pham and others, leaving a ship rudderless. They went 9-39 in the immediate aftermath, cinching their spot in infamy.
So how might the Rockies look, post-deadline? There's honestly not a ton to deal, unless they finally move third baseman Ryan McMahon, or spin off veteran pitchers Antonio Senzatela or German Marquez, further destabilizing the rotation.
If they're so inclined, their top asset, given the incessant need for relief help at the deadline, might be right-hander Jake Bird, who gets plenty of swing-and-miss (11.5 Ks per nine) and will have three seasons remaining before free agency. Yet that might make them inclined to hold him, as well.
Either way, it's highly probable the Rockies will look different – read: worse – after July 31. And that much harder to avoid history.
The big question: Will the 2024 White Sox pop champagne and light cigars if the Rockies break their record, or keep it intact?
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