Cong missteps give UDF a headache
Kozhikode: When former independent MLA PV Anvar left LDF and accused CM
Pinarayi Vijayan
and his office of wrongdoing, many thought it would hurt the Left in the bypoll. But due to a series of mistakes by Congress in handling the acerbic and unpredictable leader, the issue is now becoming a problem for UDF just before elections.
Although Anvar kept attacking UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath and claimed he had no chance of winning, Congress failed to present a clear counter narrative. Instead of closing ranks, Congress leaders kept engaging with Anvar and fuelled speculation within the party about how to deal with him.
Anvar's personal credibility has faded over the years, reducing his electoral influence, but he still holds some 'spoiler' value that matters in a close bypoll.
UDF insiders believe his impact may be limited to fewer than 5000 votes, but even a small shift can make a difference in a tight race. LDF, by fielding rising heavyweight M Swaraj, seems to be consolidating its core vote base effectively.
UDF's unclear and inconsistent stance on Anvar has exposed its internal divisions. Early public gestures, like sharing the stage with Anvar and seeming to support his anti-Pinarayi remarks, gave him more weight than he deserves.
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This could help Anvar attract some anti-incumbency votes that might otherwise have gone to UDF in a direct contest. During the campaign, LDF and UDF will have to endure his daily attacks on Shoukath and Swaraj and risk weakening their broader political fight against each other.
Congress seems to have underestimated the long-standing personal animosity between Anvar and the Aryadan family. Expecting tactical cooperation between Anvar and Shoukath was probably naive.
From the start, Anvar was unlikely to accept Shoukath taking the MLA seat he resigned from, unless, as some speculate, a firm offer for a seat in the 2026 election was on the table.
UDF must watch out if Anvar exploits the front's internal problems, including local resentment after former DCC president VV Prakash narrowly lost the 2021 polls and unease among parts of the Muslim community over Shoukath's cultural views, especially shown in his films.
UDF and LDF say Anvar's candidacy will not affect their chances. UDF leaders argue the contest is now a direct ideological battle between the fronts, which they hope will serve as a referendum on LDF govt's nine-year rule.
After winning Nilambur in 2016, CPM went out of its way to support Anvar who came from a prominent Congress family. He caught CPM's attention with his aggressive politics and the party backed him when he left Congress.
CPM also supported Anvar in the 2011 assembly elections when he ran as an independent from Ernad. Later Anvar ran as an independent in Wayanad in 2014 and won nearly 50,000 votes in an election where CPI's Sathyan Mokeri lost by 20,870 votes.
Though Anvar was involved in controversies including illegal construction on ESA land at Kakkadampoyil and faced criminal cases, CPM and the CM protected him. CPM fielded him in Nilambur in 2021 though some opposed his long absence before the elections as he was in Sierra Leone setting up a Rs 20,000 crore gold and diamond mining business.
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